NO CONTEST : Experts Say America’s Cup Won’t Be Close, but There Are Reasons to Watch

The general notion is that when the gun fires to start the America’s Cup race Sept. 7, the Stars & Stripes catamaran will sail away from New Zealand’s monohull so fast that ESPN will switch to kick-boxing to save its ratings.

But wait--don’t touch that dial.

Everyone agrees that whichever 60-foot catamaran Dennis Conner selects--the airfoil or the soft rig--it will be faster than the 133-foot winged avenger. But there are some reasons for hope that the contest will have interesting features.

For example, what will happen first in the 10-minute pre-start sequence? New Zealand has hinted it will pop a red flag to protest Stars & Stripes’ use of a multihull.

That could be the first step in another march back to the New York Supreme Court. Judge Carmen Ciparick gave the Kiwis their cue when she sidestepped ruling on the legality of a catamaran by pointing out the Deed of Gift does not require the defender to designate his boat until the time of the first race.

Theoretically, Conner could still cruise up in a 12-meter and jauntily inquire, “Sailing, anyone?”

There remains the consideration of whether this is a “fair” match, a point that worries many purists.

Where does it say the America’s Cup is supposed to be fair?

Conner’s only concern may be whether that worries the judge, in which case he might be inclined to sandbag and make the race seem close. The Kiwis, to reinforce their case, might just slow down their boat to make the race seem the mismatch they’re claiming it will be.

Conner goes slower, the Kiwis go slower. Pretty soon they’re both dead in the water, staring at each other.

On the other hand, they both may race for all they’re worth, testing the theories of all the sailing experts who seem to be coming out of the woodwork these days to pontificate on the event.

Sail Magazine published one of the more scientific projections. It’s something called the Velocity Prediction Program, coughed up by a computer at MIT, coupled with a program developed by Alex Kozloff, a multihull sailor and engineer.

The conclusions were that in 10 knots of wind, Stars & Stripes would win the first race (20 miles to windward and return) by an hour and 42 minutes and the second race (39-mile triangle) by an hour and 6 minutes.

San Diego’s notoriously dead air would be nothing compared with television’s.

If the wind blows more than 10 knots, although that’s unlikely, the Stars & Stripes advantage grows proportionately.

If the wind blows less, the races would be closer, but Stars & Stripes still wins by a horizon or two.

Cruising World Magazine credits “inside sources” with information that the New Zealand boat “has achieved a wind-speed ratio of between 1.8 and 2”--meaning the boat can sail twice as fast as the wind.

However, the magazine adds, other inside sources at Stars & Stripes “believe they will be able to sail at a ratio of 2.4.”

It doesn’t sound like much of a race, but a couple of factors could close the gap.

First, the faster boat does not always win a sailboat race. Tactics, maneuverability, wind shifts, breakdowns and skill also play a part.

Second, while Stars & Stripes will have faster straight-line speed, it probably won’t point as high into the wind as the monohull. In other words, the Kiwis will be sailing more directly toward the windward mark.

Neither boat will sail directly toward the downwind mark, either, because they would outrun the wind. They must sail at angles to the wind to attain their best downwind speed, but the Kiwis again will sail at lesser angles.

Still, Stars & Stripes should be fast enough to sail the longer distance and still finish first.

John Marshall, the design program manager for Stars & Stripes, made his own projection of the first race. He ignored the prospects of protest flags and sandbagging and considered only that both sides would be trying .

“The pre-start maneuvering will be pretty important because that’s New Zealand’s opportunity to bottle us up for the whole (windward) leg,” Marshall said.

“If they can get on our wind early, it’s going to be very hard to escape. When you are in the lee of (sails) that have the surface area of a very tall building, you’re just totally blanketed. There isn’t any wind. Dennis will have to keep his air clear.”

Marshall doesn’t think there will be much of the pre-start maneuvering for right-of-way advantage typical of match racing. Conner even avoided that in the 12-meters at Fremantle, Australia, where he won back the Cup in ’87.

“I think we’ll see Dennis use a semi-timed run,” Marshall said. “In an attempt to control the favored end of the line, Dennis will use our boat’s ability to stop and start to throw the Kiwis out of phase.

“After the start, the boats will sail next to each other in an attempt to get a bearing on each other’s speed. They’ve never sailed against each other.

“If one boat sees that he’s losing the straight-line (speed) game, he’s going to try to change the game by tacking and playing the wind shifts.

“In terms of strategy, it would be our intention to cover if we are ahead. That means matching New Zealand tack for tack, unless they prove they can truly out-tack us.”

Catamarans, generally, tack poorly because they lack the ballast to carry them 90 degrees through the eye of the wind while their sails are switching sides. Usually, they come to a momentary stop, then accelerate.

However, one characteristic the airfoil cat demonstrated immediately was its ability to retain its speed in a tack, almost like a keel boat.

“We’ve worked hard on maneuverability,” Marshall said. “Maybe we won’t be able to tack as fast, but we hope to be able to accelerate quickly enough so that the total loss of the tacking maneuver might equal that of New Zealand.”

Most of the projections involve sailing upwind, but half of the first race and two-thirds of the second will be off the wind. Even if Stars & Stripes is leading comfortably at the first (windward) mark, the race may not be over.

“The final test is who’s making better speed downwind,” Marshall said. “We don’t know a lot on that subject.”

Sail America’s attorney, Ken Poovey of San Diego, wrote in a brief during the recent legal exercise that “not only is Stars & Stripes likely slower in light winds; in heavier winds she must balance precariously on one hull in sailing upwind and runs a real risk of capsizing.”

Maybe that is the Kiwis’ only chance, and the only reason to stay tuned.