Campaign Trails and Tribulations : Most Challengers Are Left in the Dust in Races Against 4 Congressional Incumbents

Nothing if not a political realist, congressional candidate Dick Rider admits that he and two other challengers pose little threat to Rep. Bill Lowery (R-San Diego) in his reelection campaign this fall.

“About the only way Lowery could lose is if he gets caught in bed with a Democrat on one side and a baboon on the other side,” Rider said, only half-joking. “And this race is so one-sided that even if he would get busted on a morals charge, even that might not make enough of a difference.”

Rider’s comment about his own 41st District campaign is an equally apt appraisal of the formidable, all but insurmountable odds facing all nine challengers seeking to unseat four heavily favored incumbents in congressional races in San Diego County.

Races in Name Only

Although some of the challengers profess optimism about their prospects for an upset, the four contests appear to be races more in name than in reality. Each of the four incumbents--one Democrat and three Republicans--has been reelected by lopsided margins of at least 29% since 1984, and, judging by conventional political yardsticks, there is little reason to expect the outcomes to be much closer this year.

In addition, all four congressmen represent districts in which their respective parties hold major voter registration edges, have large campaign treasuries in reserve that dwarf the fund-raising efforts of their opponents and acknowledge that perhaps the major obstacle facing them in their reelection bids is simply protecting against overconfidence.

“I wouldn’t say it’s an impossible situation (for a challenger), but it’s close to that,” admitted Rob Butterfield Jr., the Republican opponent of Rep. Jim Bates (D-San Diego) in the 44th District. “The gerrymandered districts and powers of incumbency are very difficult hurdles to overcome.”

For their part, the four incumbents, clearly confident but not wanting to appear cocky, echo the sentiment of Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Coronado) that “an overconfident congressman often becomes a former congressman.” Worried not so much about losing, however, as they are about preventing any serious slippage from their past victory margins, each of the incumbents is, in a sense, campaigning more to dissuade future challengers than to dispose of this year’s opponents.

Show of Strength

“You don’t want anyone to start thinking you might be vulnerable down the road,” explained Bates, who is seeking his fourth two-year term. “The best way to avoid that is to win big.”

Framing the incumbents’ stake in the election a bit more colorfully, Lowery added: “For reasons of political strategic deterrence . . . I want to be viewed as the meanest mother in the valley. We’ve got a couple hundred thousand (dollars) in the bank now that we probably won’t need, but we’ll spend what we have to. You don’t want to be surprised.”

Following is an overview of the three local congressional races:

41st DISTRICT

Lowery’s bid for a fifth term has produced a race that is largely a replay of the 1986 campaign in the 41st District, which stretches from Point Loma to Del Mar and includes most of northern San Diego.

Both Libertarian Rider and Democrat Dan Kripke are repeating their challenges of two years ago, being joined this year by Peace and Freedom Party candidate C. T. Weber.

Kripke, an unsuccessful 1982 state Senate candidate who was easily defeated by Lowery,

68%-30%, two years ago, has begun this campaign where he ended his last one, renewing a series of strident verbal attacks on Lowery that have spawned an intense mutual animosity. In 1986, Kripke called Lowery “a lying snake” and Lowery dismissed Kripke as “an ignorant jerk.” By the end of this campaign, that rhetoric may appear tame by comparison.

Evidence of the campaign’s vitriol can be found in the frequency with which Kripke ridicules Lowery’s strong pro-defense voting record by noting that Lowery himself received a medical deferment from military service during the Vietnam War. With the recent controversy over Republican vice presidential nominee Dan Quayle’s National Guard service providing a timely backdrop, Kripke has tried to capitalize on the issue in his own race.

“Just as Dan Quayle is a chicken hawk, Bill Lowery is a chicken vulture . . . who cheers sending others into combat but isn’t willing to fight himself,” said Kripke, a 46-year-old professor of psychiatry at UC San Diego.

‘Military Didn’t Want Me’

Lowery explained that his deferment stemmed from a shoulder injury, suffered in high school sports, for which he has been hospitalized seven times.

“The truth is that the military did not want me,” said Lowery, a 41-year-old former San Diego city councilman. “Is there an assumption that to be a patriotic American, you have to have served in combat? While I’m grateful to those who served, I don’t happen to subscribe to that theory. . . This really is a non-issue that doesn’t even merit a comment. I’d invite my opponent to climb out of the gutter.”

Kripke also has sought to draw philosophical distinctions between himself and Lowery in four main policy areas: environmental protection, women’s rights, education and medical care.

“The short answer is I’m for those things and support increased funding in those areas, while Mr. Lowery doesn’t,” Kripke said. Lowery, however, describes Kripke’s charge as “just another typical distortion,” one that he seeks to refute by pointing to, among other things, his co-sponsorship of the Equal Rights Amendment and leading role in efforts to block offshore oil drilling.

His other major legislative accomplishments during his past term, Lowery argues, include securing $11.1 million in federal funds to clear unexploded World War II shells from Tierrasanta; successfully lobbying, along with other San Diego congressmen, for $20 million to be used to resolve the longstanding Tijuana sewage problem that has fouled San Diego beaches, and his authorship of anti-drug legislation aimed at eliminating the production of methamphetamines.

Exposure for Libertarians

Rider, a 43-year-old stockbroker, also ran unsuccessfully against state Sen. Bill Craven (R-Oceanside) in 1982. He views the campaign primarily as a forum to expose voters to the Libertarians’ guiding tenet that government generally does more harm than good and, therefore, should be seriously curtailed.

“Overall, I’d say my chances are equal to (Kripke’s),” said Rider, who drew only about 2% of the vote in 1986. “The problem is, that chance is nil.”

Weber is a 47-year-old Public Utilities Commission official who ran for state controller on the Peace and Freedom Party ticket in 1970. He refers to his campaign as “an educational process” in which he hopes to publicize some unorthodox proposals, including the establishment of a federal bank and insurance company--with the profits being used to reduce the budget deficit--and the use of proportional representation in the allocation of congressional seats.

43rd DISTRICT

Six years after winning an historic write-in campaign, Rep. Ron Packard (R-Carlsbad) is politically secure enough to be able to spend as much time this fall campaigning for the GOP’s national ticket as on his own bid for a fourth term.

“I’m not overconfident--my attitude is you always should run as if you’re losing,” said Packard, a former dentist who in 1982 became only the fourth person in American political history elected to Congress as a write-in candidate.

As highlights of his past term, Packard, 57, cites his success in obtaining federal funding for the widening of California 78 in North County, his sponsorship of a bill requiring the installation of new collision-avoidance equipment on planes and his role in negotiations that he hopes will resolve by year’s end a longstanding water dispute involving Indian tribes and several North County cities.

Undeterred by the overwhelmingly Republican district, Democrat Howard Greenebaum has doggedly sought to persuade voters that “other than party labels, they have little in common” with Packard. Libertarian Daniel Muhe, a financial planner from Carlsbad, also is on the ballot in the 43rd District, which covers northern San Diego County and part of southwestern Orange County.

Greenebaum describes himself as a fiscal conservative who “practices what Packard preaches.” The 58-year-old retired businessman moved here in 1985 after closing a family-owned jewelry firm in Maryland--and after losing two congressional races there.

He has offered a nine-point plan aimed at eliminating the federal budget deficit. It calls for higher taxes for corporations and the wealthy, raising the minimum wage to reduce welfare rolls, temporary cuts in the space program and phasing out the use of U.S. troops to defend Western Europe.

However, Packard’s staunch conservative record, on the budget as well as most other issues, undermines Greenebaum’s efforts to attract votes on that front.

First Try for Office

Muhe, 36, like other Libertarian candidates, hopes to use the campaign--his first for public office--primarily to promote his party’s goal of drastically reducing government regulations.

“Despite the rhetoric, there’s really not much difference between the two major parties,” Muhe said. “Yes, the Republicans spend a little more on defense and the Democrats spend a little more on social programs, but they’ll both spend us into oblivion. The Libertarians are the only party willing to bind down government.”

44th DISTRICT

During last spring’s Republican primary in the heavily Democratic 44th District, political consultant Nick Johnson joked: “Here’s a case where the winner is the loser.”

“If you’re the Republican nominee . . . you have to campaign five more months, spend more money and then you lose,” Johnson said. “So, the guy who loses in June might be the real winner.”

GOP nominee Butterfield, a 37-year-old lawyer running in his first race, concedes that Johnson’s joke is founded on a fundamental political truth about the 44th District, which covers downtown and southern San Diego, extending from Linda Vista south to Otay, and also includes Lemon Grove, National City and Chula Vista.

Expressly carved out to be a “safe” Democratic seat by the Democratic officeholders who controlled reapportionment after the 1980 census, the district includes large concentrations of blacks, Latinos and other minorities who have given the Democrats a commanding 56%-31% edge among registered voters.

That demographic makeup has provided a safe political haven for Bates, a 47-year-old former San Diego city councilman and county supervisor who has never received less than 64% of the vote since capturing the seat in 1982.

‘A Real Long Shot’

“This race is a real long shot, but every incumbent should face opposition,” Butterfield said. “I think it’s important to hold Jim Bates’ feet to the fire.”

Fund-raising problems and other factors, however, have made it difficult for Butterfield to put much heat on Bates. Hopeful of spending about $150,000 in his general election campaign, Butterfield has raised only about one-tenth that amount to date. Bates, meanwhile, says he plans to run a “bare-bones” $100,000 campaign, but has the fund-raising capacity to spend several times that much if necessary.

Among other issues, Butterfield has criticized Bates’ well-publicized efforts to draw attention to waste and fraud in Navy procurement, which Butterfield characterized as “more about going for the headlines . . . than trying to solve the problem.” Bates, though, argues that his efforts produced important reforms and enhanced the Navy’s efficiency.

In addition to supporting a broad range of social legislation, Bates also has compiled a strong environmental record in the House. He has sponsored legislation to reduce chemicals that deplete the earth’s ozone layer, has pushed for more extensive disclosure of toxics and additional funding for hazardous waste cleanups, and--assuming he is reelected--plans next year to propose an increase in the fuel efficiency of American autos.

A third candidate in the race, Libertarian Dennis Thompson, is running for the second consecutive time in the 44th District, but is unlikely to improve substantially upon his 1% vote total in 1986. In accord with the tack taken by his fellow Libertarians, Thompson, the 49-year-old president of a local computer time-sharing service, said that his main campaign theme is “trying to get the government out of our pockets and off our backs.”

45th DISTRICT

In a county where no congressional incumbent need spend any uneasy moments contemplating his reelection campaign, election statistics indicate that Hunter may well be the most politically comfortable member of the delegation.

The 45th District, which includes most of southeastern San Diego County and all of Imperial County, has a 14% Republican registration edge--a margin that Hunter has substantially improved upon by rolling up landslide 75%-plus victories during his past two reelections.

Facing relatively minor opposition this year, Hunter could afford to coast through his campaign for a fifth term against Democrat Pete Lepiscopo and Libertarian Perry Willis. However, mindful that he gained his seat through an upset, Hunter, who returns to San Diego on most weekends in an effort to strengthen his hold on the district, says that he is “taking nothing for granted.”

“Having won a race in which I was characterized as a sacrificial lamb myself, I should be the last person to ever become overconfident,” the 40-year-old Hunter said.

‘Defense Means Jobs’

From his seat on the House Armed Services Committee, Hunter has had a hand in shaping defense policies that also have a crucial local economic impact.

“Defense means jobs in San Diego and Imperial counties,” said Hunter, who led the fight against former Navy Secretary John Lehman Jr.’s controversial “homeporting” plan, which would have scattered the Navy’s fleet along the nation’s coasts rather than keep it concentrated in ports such as San Diego.

Taking a leading role on another issue with countywide impact, Hunter has offered various proposals to deal with local water and sewage problems. With San Diego facing the need to build a $1.5-billion secondary sewage treatment plant to meet federal water standards, Hunter has suggested to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials that the city be allowed to instead construct water reclamation facilities that would enable waste water to be used for irrigation.

“We can meet the EPA standards for about one-third the cost, and it seems to make more sense than just pumping our waste deeper and farther out in the ocean,” Hunter explained.

Democratic nominee Lepiscopo, a 30-year-old Coronado computer engineer, plans to focus on youth, education, drugs and small business in his campaign.

Willis, a 27-year-old political consultant and first-time candidate from Santee, sprinkles his conversations with typical Libertarian comments such as, “In almost every area, government is transgressing people’s rights, not protecting them.”