Soviets Sending Fewer Weapons to Sandinistas

Soviet arms shipments to Nicaragua have fallen off about 20% so far this year, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Friday, although he cautioned that it would be premature to draw firm conclusions from the decrease.

Another government official, confirming that “a measurable decline in the dollar value” of Soviet arms transfers has occurred, said the shortfall could be wiped out with “one big shipment.” But, he noted, the cut also “could be a signal of readiness to restructure or even cut off aid” to Managua if the United States stops aid to the Contras at war with the Marxist government.

‘Want to Lower Heat’

Facing economic problems at home and seeking improved relations with the United States, the Soviets “might be hinting that they want to lower the heat in our confrontation over Central America,” the official speculated.

The decline in weapons shipments comes as U.S. military support for the rebel forces is at a low point. Last month, Congress provided $27 million in humanitarian aid to the Contras, but on Friday the Reagan Administration announced that it will not seek the release of $16.5 million in lethal aid for them. (Story on Page 4.)

One government official, who asked to remain anonymous, discounted any relationship between the two developments, saying that the Administration’s decision came only because it recognized that the Democratic-led Congress would reject any aid request.

The Soviets apparently have not sent out diplomatic feelers or otherwise indicated to Washington that their aid reduction has broader importance, sources said.

However, the matter may have come up at the U.S.-Soviet meeting on regional issues in London this week. The meeting included the State Department’s chief Central American policy official, Assistant Secretary of State Elliott Abrams, and his Soviet counterpart, Yuri I. Pavlov. Abrams has not yet returned to Washington to brief other officials on the outcome of those talks.

The State Department also has gauged a decline in Soviet military shipments to Nicaragua, although its estimates were more conservative. Department spokesman Marjorie Weisskohl said Soviet deliveries between Jan. 1 and Sept. 15 amounted to $310 million--about 13.5% less than during a comparable period last year. She said she could not account for the disparity with the senior intelligence official’s estimate of a 20% drop.

In 1986 the Soviet Union delivered $600 million worth of weaponry and military supplies to Nicaragua, and in 1987, the volume slipped to $505 million, according to State Department estimates.

‘Still Substantial’

“The figures are down, but it’s still a substantial amount,” Weiss-kohl said. “It still leaves the Sandinistas with by far the largest armed forces in Central America . . . and it should be noted that the United States has not been supplying any military aid to the Contras for months.”

Bosco Matamoros, a spokesman for the Contras, said the rebels do not believe the decline in Soviet deliveries is significant. “It simply means they have reached the saturation point--the Sandinistas already have more equipment than they can use,” he charged.

Congress suspended U.S. military aid to the Contras in February after a Central American peace accord was signed. However, the truce has failed to produce a permanent peace, and skirmishes between Sandinista forces and the rebels have continued.

Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev, in a brief comment at the end of his December summit meeting in Washington with President Reagan, reportedly suggested that both superpowers should halt arms shipments to the Central American nation.

Reached an Impasse

State Department officials said, however, that efforts to follow up on Gorbachev’s comments led to an impasse when Soviet diplomats explained that they wanted all U.S. aid to all Central and South American nations stopped as well.

“They (the Soviets) just did not appear serious,” one senior official said.

More recently, the Administration, citing the congressional cutoff of U.S. military aid to the Contras , urged the Kremlin to follow suit. But Moscow insisted that the Administration, not Congress, must decide to stop the arms flow.

Even though he said Friday that he will not seek the immediate release of stockpiled weapons for the Contras, Reagan reserved the right to do so later if the Sandinistas mount an offensive against rebel forces.