ELECTIONS ’88 ORANGE COUNTY : Democrats Upset at TV Plans to Predict Presidential Winner

The major television networks are planning to call the presidential race before Californians finish voting Tuesday night, and Democratic candidates in Orange County aren’t happy about it.

Partly as a result of the networks’ plans, both Democratic and Republican camps will launch their biggest-ever get-out-the vote drives on Election Day, canvassing each precinct in target districts at least once, if not several times.

Orange County Democratic candidates are worried that if the networks project a landslide victory for George Bush, some Democrats won’t want to stand in the long lines expected at most polling places.

The networks--ABC, NBC and CBS--said earlier this week that they would not project which candidate had carried a particular state until the polls closed in that state, but they refused to withhold their projections of a national winner. Officials of the three networks defended their decision, saying that there has never been any scientific proof that such projections change the outcome of elections.

Takes Strong Exception

But Christian F. (Rick) Thierbach, who is contesting Republican Curt Pringle in the 72nd Assembly District, took strong exception.

“I remember standing with Dennis Mangers in a hotel ballroom watching the 1980 election returns, and we were devastated by the network’s early projections about Ronald Reagan. That, coupled with Jimmy Carter’s concession speech, cost Mangers his Assembly seat.”

Mangers, now a Sacramento lobbyist for the cable television industry, was an incumbent state assemblyman representing Huntington Beach in 1980. He was narrowly defeated by Republican Nolan Frizzelle, who has won reelection every two years since then.

“The exit polls certainly have an effect on these other races,” said Thierbach, who is in a tight, costly race against Pringle for the seat of the late Assemblyman Richard E. Longshore (R-Santa Ana). “And the lower the voter turnout, the harder it is for Democrats to win.”

Indeed, Republican candidates usually benefit from low turnout, because registered Republicans usually vote in proportionally higher numbers than do Democrats.

“We’re concerned about it. But taking that into account, we are going to be very busy with a very extensive get-out-the-vote campaign,” said Bob Lavoi, Thierbach’s campaign manager.

State Sen. Cecil N. Green (D-Norwalk), who is battling a Nov. 8 election challenge from Republican Don Knabe in the 33rd Senate District, was walking precincts and could not be reached for comment.

But Green’s campaign spokesman, Larry Morse, called the networks decision “a disservice” to Democratic and Republican candidates alike.

“It seems somewhat irresponsible for the networks to adopt their position after the brouhaha from the Reagan-Carter election in 1980,” he said. “It’s a disservice not only to Democratic candidates, but also Republican candidates in tight races throughout the western states.

“The ballot is so long this year that we are going to do our best anyway to get voters out to the polls. And if they think the presidential race is a done deal at 6 o’clock Tuesday night and they’re looking at standing in line to vote, it could be a problem.”

Problem Cuts Both Ways

But Morse added that the problem cuts both ways. “The Republican candidates could lose some support if their voters think it’s already a wrap.”

Frizzelle, Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) and other Republican candidates said this week that they, too, are fearful of such a scenario and are warning GOP voters not to be complacent on Election Day.

The network television election projections bother Jerry Yudelson, the Democrat seeking to unseat Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) in the 38th Congressional District. But he said he believes there are enough issues of interest to voters that, when combined with the strongest precinct effort ever mounted by local Democrats in Orange County, there will not be serious voter turnout problems.