PARTY ECONOMICS

Cumulative changes in selected economic and financial indicators during postwar presidential Administrations. For Democrats, figures are an average of four administrations. For Republicans, figures are an average of six administrations. Except where noted, all figures are in percent.

End of 1 Year End of 2 Years Indicator Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep. Change in real GNP* 4.2 1.7 11.2 2.0 Change in pretax profits* 11.8 -4.8 36.3 -3.8 Change in Dow Jones average*** 6.3 -5.0 2.9 11.2 Change in consumer price index*** 1.8 5.2 6.9 9.5 Yield on 20-year Treasury** 5.5 8.2 5.9 7.3 Civilian unemployment rate** 5.8 5.6 4.9 7.0 Federal budget position**** -$15.2 -$53.6 -$3.3 -$74.5 Trade position**** $3.7 -$4.9 $7.6 -$12.4

End of 3 Years End of 4 Years Indicator Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep.***** Change in real GNP* 15.8 6.2 19.3 9.4 Change in pretax profits* 33.5 14.3 35.7 17.9 Change in Dow Jones average*** 15.9 28.6 28.2 30.6 Change in consumer price index*** 13.5 13.4 19.3 16.7 Yield on 20-year Treasury** 6.7 8.0 7.5 7.8 Civilian unemployment rate** 4.6 6.3 4.6 6.2 Federal budget position**** -$10.9 -$68.8 -$18.1 -$70.5 Trade position**** $9.4 -$18.0 $11.0 -$26.3

* 4th quarter over year ago.

** December level.

*** December over year ago.

**** 4th quarter level in billions of dollars.

***** Includes end of third year of current Administration.

Source: Manufacturer’s Hanover