<i> Realpolitik</i> and the Palestinians : To Take Advantage of Their Gains, They Must Recognize Israel

Since their defeat in Israel’s War of Independence in 1948, the Palestinians have not had such a good opportunity as they do now to become integrated in a new political process. This is the first time in 40 years that the ball is in their court, and it is doubtful that it will remain there for very long. Whether they grasp this will be seen in the decisions made at the Palestine National Council meeting this weekend in Algeria.

The opportunity facing the Palestinians is a result of the gains that they have made in the intifada, the uprising that began early last December in the so-called occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza.

Three of these gains are particularly outstanding.

First, the Palestinians living in the territories have put their situation on the international and inter-Arab agendas, strengthening the perception that more must be done to solve the problem.

Also, by revolting, the Palestinian residents of the territories caused a shock in Israel. The majority of Israelis, now more than ever before, acknowledge the existence of the Palestinian problem, even though they differ on proposals regarding its solution. Israel is finding that all its military might is of little benefit in fighting this new kind of war, and the army is finding its role in the territories increasingly difficult to cope with--as would the army of any democratic state.

The intifada’s third important gain was King Hussein’s acknowledgement that he cannot represent the Palestinians, and can neither make territorial concessions on their behalf nor rule over them as he did in the past. Thus, Hussein’s announcement of Jordan’s administrative break with the West Bank, and the fact that Jordan had little if any connection with the Gaza Strip, signals the end to “the Jordanian option,” which called for the Palestinian problem to be settled through a peace agreement between Israel and Jordan.

These gains enable the Palestine Liberation Organization to pursue a different course, a political one. It would be a mistake for the PLO to conclude, as a result of the intifada, that violence pays and should be continued because it will weaken Israel. Essential to a political course of action is an unequivocal declaration by the PLO, without its characteristic obfuscation, recognizing Israel’s right to exist, accepting U.N. Resolution 242 and desisting from terror operations such as the world saw on the eve of elections in Israel two weeks ago.

A decision such as this would enable the PLO to open a dialogue with the United States and be a partner in a future peace negotiating process. It might also lead to a new American political initiative. Without such a move by the PLO, nothing will happen--neither dialogue nor a peace initiative--given the results of the Israeli election.

Most of the Palestinians living in the territories, who initiated the uprising and who can be credited with its gains, support such a process. They, who are paying the price of the uprising with blood and hardship, understand that the time has come to translate their gains into political results. It is no wonder that they are exerting the main pressure on the PLO leadership abroad to take a positive political step.

Evidence of this trend appeared two weeks before the Israeli election in the pro-PLO East Jerusalem newspaper, Al-Fajr, where the following was stated:

“The PLO should be aware that it bears an enormous responsibility for influencing the outcome of the forthcoming elections. On the negative side, a dramatic act of terror against Israeli noncombatants shortly before the (elections) will unquestionably move the fluid vote toward the extremist parties on the right. Conversely, the PLO could have a positive influence by unequivocally accepting the challenge to negotiate.”

If the PLO abroad were to have acted in the spirit of this recommendation several months ago, I believe that Labor would have emerged stronger in the voting.

Despite the fact that the Likud and the rightist camp won, the opportunity given to the PLO still exists. The PLO has enough room for a positive political maneuver, which it did not have in the past.

Old voices from the Palestinian camp are arguing that the Israeli vote proves there is no reason to make a decision that recognizes Israel and U.N. Resolution 242. Even the adoption of U.N. Resolution 181 of 1947, which divided the former British Mandate into two states--including a Jewish state considerably smaller than 1967 Israel--seems unacceptable to the hard-liners. They perceive that it would amount to giving indirect recognition to Israel and giving up the old dream of establishing a Palestinian state in the entire area.

The Palestinians have never excelled at transforming temporary successes into political gains. They have always failed at decisive moments in matters of Realpolitik. If this also occurs when the Palestine National Council meets this weekend, an important opportunity will have been lost, and the price will be paid by Palestinians living in the territories, not by those making the decision in Algeria. In addition, in the view of many Israelis, justificationwill thus have been found for implementing stronger measures to suppress the intifada, measures that the Likud government is about to take.