Deukmejian Must Decide Soon on Try for 3rd Term

For Gov. George Deukmejian, in the words of one adviser, “it is time now to fish or cut bait”--time to decide whether to run for a third term and a piece of history or to retire to the life of comfort and big money in a private law practice.

Another option--joining the Bush Administration after serving out his present term--does not interest him at all, the governor has said.

Pressured into an early decision by new political “reform” rules, Deukmejian has promised to make up his mind about a 1990 reelection bid by the end of this year. His closest advisers actually expect a decision by mid-December. “He wants to get it over with,” said attorney Steven A. Merksamer, the governor’s former chief of staff.

Each of his confidants has a slightly different view of which way the governor is leaning, but none will hazard a guess as to the final verdict. “This is probably the most important decision he will make the rest of his life, and he’s playing it close to the vest,” an aide said.

The consensus is that Deukmejian would prefer not to run--that after 26 years in public office and an especially rough second term, he is tired of all the political fighting. But the 1990 election will be a particularly crucial one because of the legislative reapportionment to follow. Since Democrats are virtually certain to retain control of the Legislature, Republicans will need someone in the governor’s office as a counterbalance. And Deukmejian is the most electable Republican.

So the 60-year-old incumbent is torn. He basically must decide how he wants to spend his mid-60s--assuming that he can be reelected, which is no cinch. Only one California governor--Earl Warren--has ever won a third term. Edmund G. (Pat) Brown tried and was humiliated by Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide.

“He has made it clear this will not be a committee decision,” said an associate, who reported that Deukmejian soon will huddle with his most trusted political strategists to hear their views, “then go off to the mountaintop” with his wife Gloria to decide for himself.

The Los Angeles Times Poll, in a pre-election survey last month, asked California voters whether they “would like to see George Deukmejian run a third time for governor in 1990.” Their replies were about evenly divided: Yes 41%, no 42%, not sure 17%.

Republicans wanted him to run by nearly 3 to 1. Democrats opposed the idea just about as lopsidedly, by 2 1/2 to 1. Independents were split. Voters in the suburbs and medium-sized communities wanted him to run. People in the central cities did not.

Job Rating Still High

But Deukmejian’s job rating remained high throughout the state, with 62% approving of “the way he is handling his job,” and only 28% disapproving. In Los Angeles County, voters approved by 3 to 2. In the rest of Southern California, it was 3 to 1. The San Francisco Bay Area approved of the governor’s job performance by 2 to 1, and the remainder of Northern California by 2 1/2 to 1.

Republicans approved by 8 to 1, Independents by 2 to 1 and Democrats were evenly divided.

The telephone survey covered 1,376 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4%.

Under the old rules of California politics--rules that had held for as long as anyone can remember--Deukmejian could have just kept other politicians and the public guessing for another year. But under a new “reform” measure (Proposition 73) approved by voters last June, anybody thinking about running for governor in 1990 is forced by practicalities to make a decision and tell the world within the next few weeks. The new law makes it much tougher to raise campaign funds by, among other things, limiting the size of each contribution.

Rules Have Been Revised

Even more importantly, the new rules require a candidate to announce which office he or she is running for before raising any money. And they prohibit the candidate from spending the raised funds on any race except for that announced office. The idea was to prevent politicians from “office shopping”--raising money ostensibly to run for reelection to their current post while, in reality, casting around for some higher office to capture.

The provision was aimed primarily at legislators. But the initial, unintended, effect has been to move up the start of the 1990 gubernatorial race and to pressure Deukmejian into an early decision--either to run himself, or to get out of the way so other potential Republican candidates can begin the arduous task of raising the many millions of dollars it will take to finance a competitive campaign.

A decision by Deukmejian not to run would set off a free-for-all among other Republicans seeking the GOP nomination. Most speculation has centered on state Senate Republican Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno and retiring U.S. Rep. Daniel E. Lungren of Long Beach, whose nomination by Deukmejian to be state treasurer was rejected by the Democrat-controlled Legislature.

Two other Republican names also are frequently mentioned by party and business leaders who think that the GOP, to hold the office, will need a candidate with more statewide name recognition. These other two are baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth and newly reelected U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson.

‘Hasn’t Given a Thought’

But Ueberroth has done nothing publicly to indicate any interest. And Wilson, according to an adviser, “hasn’t given a thought to it.” One Wilson aide recently told an inquiring adviser from another camp that the senator enjoys his job with its increased seniority and, at any rate, would not be anxious to run again so soon after his 1988 race.

On the Democratic side, four candidates are gearing up to run: state Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp, Supt. of Public Instruction Bill Honig, Controller Gray Davis and former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein. Van de Kamp is considered the early Democratic front-runner and the candidate most likely to run all the way to the finish line.

“Van de Kamp would be very formidable, but not invincible,” said attorney Ken Khachigian, a Deukmejian confidant and veteran political strategist. “He’s not Mr. Charisma. If anybody makes George Deukmejian look charismatic, it’s John Van de Kamp.”

Handicapping the field, it comes down to this, in the judgment of virtually all politicos: The Republicans’ best hope for holding the office is Deukmejian. And even with the incumbent running, the race probably would be close.

Chance for Mistakes

“For every year that a governor stays in office he has a greater opportunity to make mistakes, make enemies, get people mad at him and be blamed for things,” said pollster Mervin D. Field of the independent California Poll. “It’s very difficult for any governor to maintain a high level of support.”

“Unlike Pete Wilson, who can just go off to Washington without the public expecting much from him, the governor is expected to be in charge,” Field continued. “When things are going well, the governor gets more credit than deserved. But when they’re not going well, he gets more blame than deserved. By 1990, there’s going to be a long list of complaints, and Deukmejian, rightly or wrongly, is going to have to answer for them.”

Still, Field’s own poll has found Deukmejian’s approval ratings to be substantially and consistently higher than those of his three predecessors--Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., Reagan and Pat Brown--at comparable stages of their governorships.

Deukmejian and his strategists are prepared for a tough fight if he does run. And they are in fighting trim after having spearheaded President-elect George Bush’s narrow victory in California. “The governor worked the election as if it were his own,” Merksamer said. “He thoroughly enjoyed the campaign--frankly, I think, because he was glad to get out of Sacramento.”

Job ‘Difficult at Times’

Los Angeles attorney Karl M. Samuelian, the governor’s chief fund-raiser and a personal friend, said he believes that Deukmejian also still enjoys his job, “even though it has been difficult at times.” Others concurred to a varying degree.

“I’d encourage him to run again,” Samuelian said.

As for the argument that Deukmejian, a man of modest means who once was state attorney general, could capitalize on his background and connections to earn several hundred thousand dollars annually in private law practice, Samuelian observed:

“There are a lot of lawyers around--40,000 in California. And although George Deukmejian would not be just one of 40,000, there are a lot of prominent people who are lawyers. And it’s not the same as being CEO of this state, I can tell you.”

Actually, Deukmejian enjoys a reasonably comfortable life style as governor--free housing, chauffeured transportation and a very generous expense account to supplement an $85,000 salary. And waiting for him in retirement is a nice public pension.

Will Assess Factors

Deukmejian’s confidants said they think that the governor will, of course, assess party pressure on him to run and the prospects for victory, versus the opportunities to earn big bucks on the outside and the lure of a more private life. He also will take stock of his energy and enthusiasm for continuing to battle Democratic legislators.

But Deukmejian will base his final decision, they predicted, on whether there is an unfinished agenda he would like to accomplish in a third term--whether it is rebuilding the state’s transportation system, straightening out the insurance mess, continuing to move the courts in the direction of more law-and-order, keeping a tight fiscal rein on government, or whatever.

“If he wants to leave a lasting Deukmejian legacy on the state, he should run,” one adviser said. If it is just reapportionment that worries him, this adviser and others agreed, the governor should bow out and perhaps just sponsor a ballot initiative to take redistricting out of the Legislature’s hands.