Orange County Annual Survey : Residents Express Greater Optimism on County’s Future

In findings that pollster Mark Baldassare said represented a “dramatic” shift in the pattern of recent years, its residents are generally increasingly optimistic about the county’s future, according to the 1988 Orange County Annual Survey released Monday.

The primary reason for this new-found optimism is a perception among residents that traffic conditions, which they view as the county’s No. 1 problem, will improve in coming years, according to Baldassare, the professor of social ecology at UC Irvine who directed the survey.

The change represents a crossroads for the county, he said: “Many of the county’s long-term trends appear to have come to a halt. It’s really at a pretty critical juncture.”

Negative Trends Could Return

Negative trends may be reversed, Baldassare said, “or they could start up again.”

Although 38% of residents surveyed said they think the county will become a worse place to live, in last year’s survey 54% held that pessimistic view.

Moreover, this year 35% of those polled said the county will be a better place to live in the future; last year’s figure was 26%.

The poll--which is paid for with contributions from public agencies, private foundations and corporations, including The Times Orange County Edition--has a 3% margin of error.

The wide-ranging telephone survey, in its seventh consecutive year, was conducted Sept. 6-22 and asked 90 questions of 1,003 county adults.

Among the survey’s other findings:

- Transportation remained the county’s No. 1 concern, with 48% of those polled ranking it ahead of growth, which was identified by 20%, and housing costs, which were named by 10%.

“But the (transportation) crisis may have peaked,” Baldassare said. “Unlike past years . . . the 48% citing traffic first in 1988 is virtually unchanged from (49% in) 1987.”

Growth was identified by 23% in 1987, and housing costs were named by 6% last year.

- Drug abuse was identified by 45% of those asked as the most serious health and social problem. This was the first year that question was asked. The homeless ranked second with 16% and child care third with 13%. Health care was named by 10% of those asked, acquired immune deficiency syndrome by 6% and race relations by 5%.

- Concern with the slow-growth issue appears to have leveled off, with 64% favoring slowing the pace of development in their communities, virtually unchanged from 1986 when the same question was asked and 63% favored slowing growth.

- There was a marked narrowing of the gap between renters’ and homeowners’ monthly payments as “the cost of housing continues to climb faster than the rate of income growth.” This year 49% of homeowners and 37% of renters paid more than $750 a month for housing; the figures were 46% and 29% last year.

- Of the 11% of families with day-care needs, 68% were very satisfied with its convenience and 67% were very satisfied with the quality of service, although 67% also said it poses a financial burden. This was the first year that questions on day care were asked.

- Despite a median family income of $44,000--an increase of $2,000 over 1987--county residents reported a 30% drop in their average donation to charity, stingier than even last year’s low figures.

The median annual donation to charity in 1988, the poll found, was $182, about 0.4% of median family income; it was $262, about 0.6% of median family income, in 1987. This is significantly lower than the 1.9% to 2.4% national averages, cited by other national studies in recent years.

Pessimism Increase Halted

This year’s survey shows “the trend toward increasing pessimism about Orange County’s future, which we first noticed in 1986, has ended,” Baldassare said. “No longer do a majority of residents perceive Orange County as becoming a worse place to live in the future. These figures represent a dramatic shift.”

He said the new optimism does not mean conditions have necessarily improved: “This year, 35% perceive things in the county as going ‘very well,’ 50% say ‘somewhat well’ and 15% say ‘somewhat or very badly.’ These percentages are all within 2 points of what they were last year.

“The single area where we saw the greatest change in attitude was among those people who saw traffic as the greatest problem.”

Keith McKean, director of Caltrans District 12, which covers the county, offered an explanation for the optimism about freeway conditions: “I think one reason . . . was that setting up a new district in Orange County devoted to getting (freeway) projects out on the road has been received with a lot of optimism.

Share of Transit Budget

“Orange County’s share of the transportation budget has really gone up for transportation improvement projects.”

Caltrans hopes “to get $400 million worth of projects ready by the end of 1989,” McKean said, or about 15 times as much money as spent in the county in any recent year.

Still, all is not rosy, Baldassare pointed out.

For example, an all-time low of 5% said they find the county’s freeways satisfactory, down from the previous low of 8% last year.

And two-thirds of those surveyed said they believe that the county will either become a worse place to live or no better than it is now.

“Still only one out of three says it’s going to be a great place in the future,” Baldassare said. “The numbers are still quite negative. They are just not as pessimistic as they were a year ago.”

By way of comparison, he pointed to a San Francisco poll of registered voters conducted a few months ago.

“Over half of San Francisco voters said it would be a better place to live (in the future rather) than a worse place,” he said. “That’s a big difference. They just feel the problems the city has are going to be tackled.”

Visibility of Widening

In Orange County, the visibility of freeway widening projects throughout the county has given “some hope,” Baldassare said, but “it’s not great hope.”

“It’s just (improved) relative to the extreme pessimism before. It remains to be seen whether or not traffic actually will be better when the roadwork is completed.”

Caltrans’s McKean agreed with Baldassare’s assessment.

“When all of a sudden they (residents) see it (construction), that really raises the optimism,” McKean said.

But he also had words of caution: “Even though we are going to be making improvements, that’s not going to solve the problems. No way we are going to build our way out of the problem. Enough people are going to have to change their habits so we don’t have everyone driving at the same time of the day.”

As has occurred in the past when freeway improvements are made, people are often encouraged “to take trips they never took before” adding to traffic, McKean said.

1988 ORANGE COUNTY ANNUAL SURVEY OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE For the first time in 3 years, there are almost as many residents optimistic about the future of Orange County as there are those who believe that the county will become a worse place to live. 1983 Better place to live. . .40% Worse place to live. . .35% No change. . .25% 1988 Better place to live. . .35% Worse place to live. . .38% No change. . .27% TRAFFIC MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Traffic continues to be viewed as the most important problem facing Orange County, although residents are optimistic about steps being taken to ease the problem. 1985 Traffic. . .33% Housing. . .13% 1988 Traffic. . .48% Growth. . .20% Housing. . .10% AMOUNTS CONTRIBUTED TO CHARITY Donations to charity dropped overall, with 10% of Orange County households giving nothing to charity and donations of $101 or more falling from 1987 to 1988. 1987 Nothing. . .7% $1-$100. . .21% $101-$500. .43% Over $500. .29% 1988 Nothing. . .10% $1-$100. . .29% $101-$500. .38% Over $500. .23% TRENDS IN HOUSING PAYMENTS Housing payments in Orange County continued to increase for both homeowners and renters with the gap between the two narrowing. 1983 Mortgage. . .26% Rent. . .6% 1988 Mortgage. . 49% Rent. . .37% MOST SERIOUS SOCIAL PROBLEMS Drug abuse was named by a large majority of residents as the county’s top social problem. Drug abuse. . .45% Homeless. . .16% Child care. . .13% Health care. . 10% AIDS. . .6% Race relations. . .5% Other. . .5%