Panama’s Delvalle Pays Dearly for Brief Reign as President

Life is not easy for Eric A. Delvalle, Panama’s president in hiding.

His title is empty of honor, let alone power. His erstwhile allies would like him to leave, and his enemies would like him in jail.

Now, the government is taking away his horses.

Earlier this month, Gen. Manuel A. Noriega, the Panamanian strongman, ordered the confiscation and sale of Delvalle’s stable of 118 thoroughbred racehorses--ostensibly to raise money for a regime so mired in the economic doldrums that it cannot even repair broken traffic signals.

Because the auction is likely to bring in only a few hundred thousand dollars to a treasury billions of dollars in debt, Noriega’s official reason is seen as mainly symbolic.

But what is real is the personal and political humiliation of a man who symbolizes the U.S. policy of trying to force Noriega from power--a policy, futile thus far, that foreign and American diplomats alike acknowledge will not work without drastic revamping.

By spotlighting the hopelessness of the figure on whom the United States has based its efforts for maintaining influence in this strategic Central American nation, Noriega also has underscored the impotence of the Reagan Administration’s public efforts here in the last 10 months.

The auction also represents personal punishment for Delvalle, who as president of Panama represented Noriega before turning on him in an ouster attempt that observers agree has been a political and diplomatic disaster.

For those who know Delvalle, the loss of his horses is close to the ultimate indignity--the forfeiture of one of the badges of upper-class success in a country mad for horse racing.

“No more winning circles, no more owner’s boxes,” said one associate, who spoke on the condition that he not be identified. “That will hurt more than being kicked out of office.”

Lever for U.S.

Delvalle became the lever for American action against Noriega after the Panamanian strongman was indicted on drug-trafficking charges by two U.S. grand juries last February.

Named president after his elected predecessor, Nicolas Ardito Barletta, was forced out of office in September, 1985, Delvalle announced last February that he had dismissed Noriega as head of the nation’s military. But Noriega refused to go and instead had his rubber-stamp National Assembly remove Delvalle from office, electing Manuel Solis Palma as president.

The Administration continued to recognize Delvalle, who went into hiding, as the legitimate head of Panama’s government and responded by imposing a series of economic sanctions aimed at sparking a reaction among Panamanians that would force Noriega into exile.

The sanctions have been effective in wounding Panama’s economy. But ironically, they also have helped Noriega reorder the nation’s political structure by painting Delvalle and the United States as representing the interests of Panama’s white, upper-income oligarchy instead of the well-being of the nation’s poorer Latino elements.

“The people here aren’t really anti-American,” said one diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “But the effects of the sanctions and the American inability to force Noriega out have left them disappointed and disillusioned with Washington.

“To the people who have to depend on the (Panamanian) government for their living, American policy is useless,” he added. “So, they have no choice but to stick with him.”

Delvalle, meanwhile, is evidently no option. Associates say he is weary of the largely secret life he has led for 10 months. Since he escaped house arrest, he has stayed instead in a hideaway many presume to be on U.S. military property or in other areas of the former Canal Zone, where U.S. employees of the Panama Canal reside.

Generally, he avoids meeting in Panama with leaders of the anti-Noriega movement, seeing them only when he visits Miami. And he is so afraid of arrest that he recently refused to attend his mother’s funeral, even though Noriega personally assured him that he would not be detained.

Other opposition figures, already distrustful because of his previous support of Noriega, have found Delvalle evasive and indecisive.

Out of Sight

“He won’t come out of hiding,” said one opposition leader, who spoke on the condition that he not be identified by name. “He isn’t much of a popular figure to begin with, and by staying out of sight, he can’t be a rallying point.”

Indeed, President Reagan is the only major figure still expressing total support for Delvalle, who has few supporters in the U.S. Embassy here or in the State Department. Recently, the President messaged Delvalle that “we will continue to work with you and the Panamanian people in favor of a realistic and durable solution.”

Devalle flew to the United States on Wednesday for a meeting with Secretary of State George P. Shultz. He is scheduled to meet with President Reagan and President-elect George Bush today.

Reagan has no plans to ease the economic sanctions on Panama, U.S. officials say, and there are no signs that Bush will change that approach.

According to State Department officials, Reagan’s message was sent both to offset Delvalle’s own reluctance to continue in what he reportedly sees as a thankless role and to signal other opponents of Noriega that Washington still expects them to rally around the erstwhile president.

For the moment, at least, Delvalle has decided to stay--but Reagan’s other goal seems far distant. After a recent meeting with Delvalle in Miami, opposition leaders said no unification plan had been reached.

To be sure, the question of unity is crucial now because Noriega tentatively has called for a national election in 1989 and conceivably could be ousted at the ballot box. But the opposition branded the proposed vote as a fraud and has declined to enter candidates. Several diplomats said that an equally compelling reason for not contesting the election arises from the inability of opposition parties to agree on a presidential candidate with the personal magnetism that often is the key to victory.

But officials of the U.S. Embassy are known to be concerned about the Noriega opponents’ seeming passiveness.

First, the Americans argue, an election would give legitimacy to Noriega, even if he only has token opposition. Second, they believe that Noriega could only win by fraud so massive that it would spark a popular uprising or a military coup.

Other diplomats and foreign experts indicate that the second argument is merely wishful thinking, however. No one, they say, either in the military or the private sector, is powerful or dissatisfied enough to take on Noriega--particularly because he controls the nation’s often violent security forces.

“You can forget about any new public uprising,” one diplomat said. “When it’s a question of rubber hoses against a lower standard of living, or living with a fraudulently elected president, I would bet most Panamanians will take Noriega.”

Discussions with diplomats from several countries indicate that, as matters stand, there is only one way to persuade Noriega to leave, and that is for the United States to scare him out with a realistic threat of force.

“If he thought that the Americans would really attack, I doubt that he would take the risk,” a European official said.

“He would have everything to lose and nothing to gain. But the Americans would have to be willing to use force, and I don’t see any signs from Washington that this or the new Administration would be willing to do that,” the official added.

Risks Too Great

“Their own risks are too high,” he said, in a reference to the 40,000 Americans living here who presumably could be in danger if Noriega decided to act against them.

And another diplomat observed: “Short of military intervention, I don’t see anything that is going to resolve this.

“Noriega has survived your economic sanctions, your diplomatic pressure, everything,” the diplomat said. “All he has to lose by continuing as he has are trips overseas (where he would face arrest on the drug charges). He evidently can live with that.”