The Dry Years

As they allocated full supplies of water to farm and city customers this past year, federal and state water managers frequently noted that California had not suffered three consecutive drought years in modern history, and possibly not since the 16th Century. The odds of a third straight drought year in 1989 were figured at only 1 in 10. Those calculations may fit some venerable statistical formula, but any lay person can see with a glance at snow and rainfall records that dry years come together often. Thus it would have been prudent for all of California to have been on a drought-emergency footing this past year.

With the state almost certain to have a third drought year, water officials now must move quickly to impose realistic conservation standards. Then they should begin making some hard-nosed decisions about what to do in the event of a fourth drought year in 1990. This is what both San Francisco and Oakland water officials have been doing for a full year.

Three drought years may be rare, but prolonged dry periods are not. There were four drought years and two below-normal years in 1929-34. Just since 1976 there have been four drought years and three sub-normal years. A very wet spell during 1982-84 allowed water managers to fill up the state’s reservoirs. But that cushion is gone now.

This seems to have been a wintry winter in Los Angeles. But the rains and snows that count are those falling in the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains, the major sources of the region’s imported water. Both the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California deserve credit for implementing aggressive voluntary conservation campaigns in the past two years. But the key word is voluntary. There has been no sense of crisis in Southern California, and the campaigns have not achieved their modest goals of 10% savings.

With agriculture enjoying a relative boom for the past two years, there has been heavy pressure on the state Water Project and the federal Central Valley Project to make full deliveries to irrigators. If 1989 continues dry, however, farm customers can expect a reduction of up to 40%. Those decisions in Sacramento should be made soon. Water officials are sensitive about hurting the farm economy, but many farmers can compensate for the cutback by pumping groundwater.

Los Angeles needs to implement its standby ordinance for 10% water rationing soon and to be ready for even tougher restrictions if mountain snowpacks continue to dwindle. Most residents can save that much without inconvenience by cutting back on outdoor use, like watering lawns less frequently but more thoroughly.

Both San Francisco and Oakland had 25% rationing in effect this past year because they lack Southern California’s reservoir capacity and depend more directly on each year’s snowmelt.In San Francisco, outdoor water use was reduced by 60%. The East Bay’s water district had an overall saving of 26%. With even half that effort, Southern California should be able to get through another drought year without undue inconvenience. But first, officials need to raise the level of consciousness about the severity of the drought and tell area residents clearly that some sacrifices will have to be made, and soon.