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Pentagon Panel Backs Controversial Plan to Base MX Missiles on Moving Rail Cars

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Times Staff Writer

Only a month after a compromise appeared near on the best way to modernize America’s land-based nuclear missile force, a Pentagon advisory panel has revived a controversial plan to keep some missiles moving on rail lines at all times.

The still-secret draft recommendation by the prestigious Defense Science Board endorses deployment of 50 MX missiles on rail cars, most of which would be housed inside garrisons at 11 military bases across the country.

But in a move that could sink the program when it reaches Capitol Hill, the panel will recommend that a portion of the missile force should be dispersed on the nation’s rail lines around the clock, according to two members of the panel.

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Odds for Bush OK Increase

Because the panel’s recommendations carry considerable weight, defense experts said that the proposal increases the odds that the Bush Administration will embrace a rail-garrison basing plan for its force of MX missiles, which currently are housed in missile silos.

At the same time, the proposal is sure to rekindle congressional concerns about the safety of ferrying multiple-warhead nuclear missiles along some 150,000 miles of commercial rail lines in peacetime.

The panel’s findings, to be presented soon to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, come just as the Bush Administration nears a final decision on modernization of America’s arsenal of long-range, land-based missiles.

In March, Air Force officials and key lawmakers were close to an agreement to keep all of the nation’s MX missiles housed in railside garrisons except during periods of international crisis, at which time they would be dispersed on rail lines.

The tentative agreement also called for building a force of smaller, single-warhead Midgetman missiles that would be transported by trucks within large military reservations. The Midgetman plan has been favored by many members of Congress.

But if the Administration adopts the Defense Science Board proposal to keep some MX missiles in motion at all times, Congress is likely to reject the scheme, knowledgeable congressional aides said.

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The Pentagon and Congress have scuttled two previous rail-based missile programs, one for the Minuteman missile in the early 1960s and one for the MX during the Jimmy Carter Administration, because they called for the constant presence of nuclear weapons on commercial byways.

Since proposing its own rail-garrison scheme in December, 1986, the Air Force has taken pains to reassure communities on railroad lines that loaded weapons would leave their garrisons only in times of international crisis.

By raising the specter that such weapons would be a constant presence on railroads, MX proponents fear that the panel’s recommendation could further erode public support for the rail-garrison scheme.

The panel’s recommendations also appear to bolster the principal argument used by opponents of the rail-garrison concept--that it could not survive a surprise Soviet nuclear strike.

Critics fear that in an unexpected attack, the missile force would be destroyed while still in its rail-side garrisons because U.S. leaders either would not have advance warning or would delay putting the trains in motion. Unless most of the missile trains are dispersed on rail lines, Air Force officials acknowledge that much of the MX force could be destroyed in a surprise strike.

In concluding that some part of the missile force should be on the tracks at all times, the Defense Science Board tacitly acknowledged that even during periods of international crisis, U.S. leaders would be hesitant to disperse the trains for fear that doing so would further escalate tensions.

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“The essential thing is to get people to believe that you haven’t locked the missile trains up and thrown the key away,” said one panel member who asked not to be identified. “If some have been out on the rails all along, that erodes any hurdle you might imagine” to dispersing the entire force during a crisis.

Members of the panel argued also that a commitment to place some missile trains on round-the-clock patrol would make safety precautions adopted by the Air Force to protect the public “more serious-minded.”

“Putting (MX missiles) on a train and leaving them in their garrisons is no better than putting them in Minuteman silos,” where they currently are based, said Gen. Russell E. Dougherty, a member of the panel.

Respected Panel

The Defense Science Board, which is composed of respected scientists, engineers and former defense officials, is considered one of the Defense Department’s most authoritative advisory panels. Its recommendations often are adopted as department policy.

The panel is chaired by Dr. James R. Burnett, an executive at TRW’s Space and Defense Sector in Redondo Beach, Calif.

In endorsing the rail-garrison concept, the Defense Science Board echoed the Air Force view that the system would provide the greatest deterrent effect for the least amount of money. The Air Force estimates that it would cost $5.4 billion to place the 50 existing MX missiles on 25 trains and keep them in garrisons.

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