S. African Image Gains From Namibia Rebels’ Misstep

South African military intelligence detected a buildup of rebel forces across the Namibian border with Angola back in January. South Africans monitored guerrilla meetings, saw the arrival of fresh uniforms and heard talk of an invasion to “finally chase the Boers out.”

But when South African officials complained to the world, as they often do, few believed them.

Just as South Africa had warned, though, the guerrilla buildup developed into a major cross-border incursion by the South-West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO), beginning only hours after a U.N. independence plan went into effect April 1.

SWAPO’s violation of the peace accord shook the world’s high regard for the liberation movement. But, at the same time, it gave South Africa--often considered the chief destabilizing influence in southern Africa--a rare moment on the diplomatic high ground.

Long accustomed to international scorn, South Africa’s white minority-led government suddenly has found itself in the world’s good graces. SWAPO, with U.N. support, had battled for 24 years to end South African rule of this territory, sometimes called South-West Africa. But, literally overnight, South Africa’s troops were fighting SWAPO with U.N. blessing. And, after some initial skepticism, the United Nations and Western governments that are often critical of South Africa began believing Pretoria’s version of events here.

South African officials, in a smug, I-told-you-so mood, have jetted in and out of Windhoek, capital of this vast territory, to bask in their new credibility. Even though the fighting has diminished and SWAPO insurgents are said to be crossing northward back to their refuge in Angola, South Africa has yet to tire of reminding foreign journalists that South Africa abided by its agreement to follow the U.N. plan for Namibian independence while SWAPO did not.

“There is not a responsible government in the world today that does not know exactly whatSWAPO has done,” South Africa’s foreign minister, Roelof F. (Pik) Botha, said recently. “We wish it had never occurred. If the result is that SWAPO’s leadership pays a heavy price for it, that was not of our doing.”

Any threat to SWAPO’s image is welcome in Pretoria, where the country that has governed Namibia for 74 years fears that a Marxist SWAPO government will come to power in November’s U.N.-monitored elections. Despite widespread condemnation of SWAPO’s invasion, the insurgent movement remains the probable winner of Namibia’s first free and fair elections.

SWAPO’s political opponents, chief among them the multiracial, capitalistic Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA), have taken to the streets with a well-funded campaign to discredit SWAPO.

Several hundred black Namibians wearing alliance T-shirts turned up this week at a South African military base in the northern Namibia city of Oshakati--SWAPO’s political power base--to protest the incursions.

The alliance supporters carried signs reading “Don’t Sabotage 435,” referring to the U.N. independence plan for Namibia, and “SWAPO--Don’t Kill the Peace.”

Sam Nujoma, SWAPO’s president, “failed hopelessly in his attempt to take over Namibia by force,” said Barney Barnes, head of a small political party that merged with Democratic Turnhalle this week. “In the process, he annoyed the whole international community.”

A Shifting Story

Nujoma first said his forces were already inside northern Namibia before the peace process began, but few world leaders believed him. Later, Nujoma acknowledged that some of his rebel forces did cross the border, but only to turn themselves over to the U.N. peacekeeping troops. Now Nujoma has accused South Africa of hiding its advance knowledge of the infiltration in order to justify an attack on SWAPO and have an excuse to back out of the independence process.

Many international leaders not accustomed to siding with South Africa admit that they agree with Botha. And even SWAPO’s most ardent supporters in Africa have criticized Nujoma.

Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who has provided sanctuary for the rebels, said his country “regrets that the SWAPO leadership could not exercise total control over its guerrillas at the critical moment.”

Botha goes much further. “I don’t see how the SWAPO leadership could have been so stupid,” the foreign minister told viewers of state-run television recently.

But the insurgents’ support among Namibians remains strong. Several thousand SWAPO supporters turned out Sunday in a black township near Windhoek for a memorial service for guerrillas killed in 10 days of conflict. The service was for the 38 fighters that SWAPO says were killed, but Namibian security forces say more than 275 guerrillas have actually died in the battles.

“We are here to pay tribute to heroic Namibians who have lost their lives in the north of our land,” the Rev. Jackie Basson told the mourners. “The independence we have been fighting for for years is being threatened by unprovoked attacks by South Africa.”

Botha has lately suggested that SWAPO’s actions have made South Africa less willing to negotiate with other liberation movements, such as the outlawed African National Congress, the principal liberation movement in South Africa.

“We have no more illusions,” Botha said. “This perfidy by SWAPO has dealt the good and positive prospects of negotiation politics a blow. One doesn’t know anymore who one can believe.”

For all its newly charged rhetoric, though, South Africa has passed up several opportunities to scuttle the peace process here.

“They had their chance to sweep it off the table and they didn’t,” a political analyst in Namibia said recently. “That must mean they’re serious.”