The Times Poll : Public, Willing to Wait and See, Gives Bush a ‘C’

Americans are giving President Bush only a “C” grade for his first 100 days in office, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

People are not very excited about the new President. But neither are they really upset with him. They basically are reserving judgment until later and not paying a lot of attention at present, the Times survey found.

“Give him a chance,” people told the Times poll. “He wants to do the right thing.”

So far, however, Bush’s marks are not as high as Ronald Reagan’s were at this comparable stage in their presidencies. The public graded Reagan with a “B” after 100 days, the poll found eight years ago.

Reagan had been shot 70 days after entering the Oval Office and his ordeal boosted his popularity. But the assassination attempt accounts for only part of the difference in attitudes toward the two presidents, various surveys have indicated. For example, a Times poll a few days before Reagan was shot found that the public’s impression of him even then was higher than it currently is of Bush.

One of the raps on Bush has been that his Administration is “adrift.” And the poll found evidence that Americans tend to agree with this criticism, with two-thirds saying the President’s “goals are not very clear.”

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed a random sample of 2,160 American adults by telephone for four days ending last Tuesday night. The margin of error for this size survey is 3 percentage points in either direction.

When people were asked, “What kind of report card would you give President Bush?” the result was a “C” average, with only 11% awarding him an “A.” By contrast, Reagan after 100 days was given an “A” by 35%.

Offered eight comments about Bush and asked to name the one or two best suiting him, people mostly chose this statement: “We ought to give him a chance.” Next came the observation: “He wants to do the right thing.” After that, far down the list, a relatively small percentage of people chose such comments as: “He doesn’t seem to know where he’s going,” “He’s a nice person” and “He doesn’t care about people like me.”

Overall, the people have a positive impression of Bush--67% favorable, 20% unfavorable and 13% not sure. But at this stage eight years ago, when Bush was merely the vice president, people had an even higher impression of him. It was 86% favorable then.

The Lewis Law

“This is a near-perfect example of Lewis’ law, which says that if you don’t know much about somebody, you like him,” pollster Lewis said of Bush’s higher popularity during the early months of his vice presidency.

During that 1981 period--100 days into Reagan’s first term--83% of those surveyed held a favorable impression of Reagan, illustrating that he was considerably more popular than Bush is now. And as an example of the contrast in excitement levels generated by the two men, twice as many people had a “very” favorable impression of Reagan as now do of Bush.

Less than half the people interviewed by The Times (47%) “approve of the way George Bush is handling his job as President.” Only 18% disapprove, but 35% have not formed an opinion about how the President is doing.

At this juncture of Reagan’s Administration, by comparison, more than three-fourths of the people (80%) approved of the President’s job performance.

Oil Spill Seen Hurting

One recent event that probably led to a slippage in Bush’s stock was the Alaskan oil spill. Critics accused the Administration of dragging its feet before taking control of efforts to clean up the 11 million gallons of crude oil that leaked into Prince William Sound when the tanker Exxon Valdez ran aground on March 24. The public generally agrees with the critics, the poll found.

Of those surveyed, 52% disapproved “of the way President Bush has handled the oil spill.” Only 25% approved and 23% weren’t sure.

Also, public suspicion about Bush’s involvement in the Iran-Contra scandal has increased during the trial of former White House aide Oliver L. North, the poll showed. More than one-third of the people say the trial has convinced them that Bush was more involved than they previously thought. And roughly half believe the President “has told lies” about the scandal.

75% Like Bush Personally

Although Americans tend to like Bush--three-fourths say they like him personally and almost half say they like him now better than during the election campaign--they are not especially impressed with his initial moves as President.

When asked “all things considered” whether they think Bush “has gotten off to a strong start or a weak start,” the vast majority (61%) described the start as “somewhere in-between.” About twice as many people characterized it as weak as did strong.

Only roughly one-fourth (26%) said they “have a good idea where George Bush wants to lead the country.” About two-thirds (65%) lamented that “his goals are not very clear.”

People are inclined to think that Bush “is continuing the policies of Ronald Reagan” rather than leading the country in a new direction. But two-thirds said that Bush, indeed, “ should point the country in a new direction.”

On some specific issues, people indicated they do not have a lot of confidence in the new President but their feelings are not strong.

Handling of Economy

For example, only one-third approves of Bush’s “handling of the nation’s economy.” But less than one-fourth disapproves. The biggest block of people, nearly half, have no opinion at all.

By contrast, two-thirds of those surveyed in a similar Times survey eight years ago approved of Reagan’s handling of the economy, which then was suffering from high inflation and was about to begin plunging into a deep recession.

The public seems ambivalent about the present economy. Nearly one-fourth says it is “good,” a little more than one-fourth describes it as “bad” and roughly one-half puts it “somewhere in-between.” However, people tend to be pessimistic about the future economy. Roughly twice as many believe it will be worse next year as think it will get better.

Nearly two-thirds of the people said they have no confidence that Bush “will be able to make significant reductions in the federal budget deficit.” Interestingly, almost half those surveyed eight years ago were confident that Reagan actually would be able to balance the annual budget, which was only $79 billion in the red when he took office and more than twice that when he left.

In the latest poll, three-fourths also doubted that Bush will be able to avoid asking for a tax increase, despite his repeated “read my lips--no new taxes” pledge during the campaign.

On a related matter, those surveyed more often than not regarded the much-ballyhooed 1986 tax overhaul as “a bad thing.” Three times more people told interviewers they are paying higher income taxes than said they are paying less.

But again illustrating their fuzziness about Bush, people basically either were not aware or were divided in their views concerning the President’s positions on banning military-style assault rifles, bailing out troubled savings and loan institutions and aiding the Nicaraguan Contras.

The jury also is still out on whether Bush will be able to keep his promises to become “the education President,” protect the environment and create “a kinder, gentler America.”

On foreign affairs, 40% approve of Bush’s performance. But eight years ago, 68% approved of how Reagan was handling foreign affairs.

Half of those surveyed felt that Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev has “taken more forceful positions in foreign policy” than has Bush. Only one-fourth believe that Bush has been the more forceful. But nearly two-thirds think that Bush ultimately will sign an arms control treaty with the Soviet Union.

When asked, “What is the most important problem facing this country?” nearly two-thirds answered drugs. But three-fourths lacked confidence that Bush “will be able to bring the drug crisis under control.”

Ranking next in importance, but far behind drugs, were the budget deficit and the economy.

Comparing Bush to Reagan, people tended to think that the new President would “know more about what’s going on in his Administration.”

But whatever problems with popularity Bush has pales when compared to his vice president, Dan Quayle. The public’s impression of Quayle is not very high--31% favorable, 29% unfavorable and 40% not sure.

EVALUATING BUSH’S FIRST 100 DAYS

Americans generally have an open mind about George Bush.... Q. What phrases best fit President Bush?

We ought to give him a chance: 50%He wants to do the right thing: 34He doesn’t seem to know where he’s going: 15He’s a nice person: 15He doesn’t care about people like me: 13He’s too close to special interests: 9He doesn’t tell the truth: 9He’s a great leader: 7(Adds up to more than 100% because of multiple responses)

Approve Disapprove The Alaska oil spill 25% 52% Controlling semiautomatic weapons 34 26 The savings and loan crisis 24 27 Aid to the Contras 21 25 Minimum wage legislation 44 33

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll