Cheney on Gorbachev

President Bush has rightfully reacted speedily to disassociate his Administration from Defense Secretary Dick Cheney’s prediction that Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev’s reform program would fail and that Gorbachev would subsequently be replaced by a Soviet leader hostile to the United States (Part I, May 2).

There are many who share Cheney’s views and he may prove eventually to be right. But this is hardly the time for a senior Cabinet member to publicly express his conviction that the Soviet system is impervious to change despite the efforts of the most conciliatory leader which the Soviet Union has yet produced.

Many Americans and their European allies agree that there are as yet imprecisely defined changes occurring within the Soviet Union which may offer opportunities for rapprochement with that country. Former President Reagan, who described the Soviet Union as an “evil empire” early in his first term, responded to Gorbachev’s peace overtures, resulting in the INF treaty to dismantle intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The climate for further negotiations between Bush and Gorbachev is not improved by an American secretary of defense who proclaims that Gorbachev’s days as the Russian leader are numbered.

Moreover, we stand at what may turn out to be a crossroad in our relations with NATO and Europe. Under severe domestic pressures, West Germany’s Chancellor Helmut Kohl proposes negotiations with Moscow to eliminate short-range nuclear weapons in Europe. Such a move--especially in conjunction with the INF treaty and before the serious imbalance between NATO and Warsaw Pact conventional forces is corrected--would gut NATO defenses.

Kohl cites as his rationale, the diminution of the threat from the Soviet Union under Gorbachev’s leadership.

Within this context, Cheney’s ill-considered public forecast may well be interpreted by West Germany and other Europeans as a clumsy and heavy-handed attempt to influence their actions--thus inspiring resentment, rather than a willingness to mediate differences.

When Cheney was nominated for defense secretary, his supporters cited political savvy among his attributes. If so, he has yet to live up to his reputation.

BRYCE F. DENNO

Coronado