Chinese Students Protest in Beijing

During recent weeks, numerous analysts have predicted what will happen in China. When 2 million people marched in Beijing, it was predicted that changes toward democracy were inevitable. When martial law was declared, it was predicted that a dark period would be inevitable. When the 100 military officers opposed martial law, it was predicted that the hard-liners would fall. When 7 of the 8 army divisions supported Premier Li Peng, it was predicted that the hard-liners would take control.

The predictions have not been correct. Why has the U.S. media been so inaccurate with their analyses and predictions? In my opinion, the complexity of the problem has been overlooked. All of the above predictions were made using a common-sense approach. But this is not how it works in China.

I think that the strength of both the moderates and the hard-liners in the Chinese government has been greatly exaggerated. When martial law was declared, Li Peng and President Yang Shangkun were the only leaders willing to identify themselves openly as hard-liners. This week even Li Peng went on Chinese TV claiming that he was not responsible for calling in the troops. On the other side, (Communist Party general secretary) Zhao Ziyang was the only openly moderate along with (chairman of National People’s Congress) Wan Li leaning towards Zhao without making his position clear.

It appears that most of the people in the government are uncommitted to either side.

It also appears that the complexity within the democratic movement has been overlooked. Analysts have been trying hard to find out if the goal of this movement is to overthrow communism, or to get rid of corruption and bureaucracy and make the existing socialism work better. The answer varies depending on which students you talk to. I don’t think that there is an ultimate goal.

But though these people have very different ultimate goals, their immediate goals are the same. This is the force that has united the people from all walks of life.

The outcome of this struggle is undecided at the moment and will continue to be undecided regardless of which leader appears to be in control. At no time should we be overly optimistic, nor overly pessimistic.

PAUL LIN

Los Angeles