No Sure Winner Looms in Crowded 76th Assembly District Race

Ordinarily, a state legislative candidate who receives only 10% of the potential vote would not need to concern himself with housing prices in Sacramento.

However, under the peculiar political mathematics governing next month’s special 76th Assembly District election, attracting the votes of as few as one in 10 registered voters could insure a landslide victory in the race to select a successor to the late Bill Bradley (R-Escondido).

Perhaps even more surprising than that unusually low electoral threshold is the fact that most of the nine candidates in the Aug. 8 campaign doubt that anyone will surpass it in the sprawling district, which stretches from northeastern San Diego County to the South Bay, and also includes parts of Riverside County.

“This is one time when there may be more candidates than voters,” joked Democrat Stephen Thorne.

The public’s tepid attitude toward the contest obscures the fact that Bradley’s death last month after a nearly four-year battle with cancer created a rare opportunity for a wide open Assembly race in San Diego County, where most legislative districts’ lopsided partisan voter registration and incumbents’ longevity historically discourage serious competition.

Registration within the 76th District itself is heavily slanted toward Republicans, 54% to 33%--a daunting disparity that could leave the all-but-certain GOP victor with a seat viewed so safe as to be a lifetime job.

Although that tantalizing prospect has piqued uncommonly strong interest among Bradley’s would-be successors, as evidenced by the size of the field, there is little indication that the public shares that sentiment. Special elections typically draw low turnouts, a trend likely to be exacerbated in this race by a mid-summer primary in a district that encompasses desert communities where daily temperatures often are higher than the number of voters in many precincts.

Indeed, as the two-month campaign enters its final three weeks, the consensus of the candidates and their consultants is that next month’s turnout probably will be only about 20%, with some forecasting a turnout percentage as low as the mid-teens.

To win election outright in the primary, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote--a figure that, based on the 20% projection, equates to only about 10% of the district’s approximately 240,000 voters.

If no candidate achieves that 50%-plus margin in the primary--in which all contenders of all parties will appear on a single ballot--the top Republican and Democratic vote-getters would compete in an Oct. 3 runoff. (Ten candidates have qualified for the primary, but one--Republican Lori Holt Pfeiler--withdrew last week and endorsed fellow Republican Tricia Hunter. Pfeiler’s name, however, remains on the ballot.)

The campaign’s unusual format, combined with its brevity and large field, has complicated the candidates’ efforts to devise an effective strategy for reaching voters from Bonita to Palomar and Jacumba to Palm Desert in a shorter time than candidates usually take to decide whether to run.

“In terms of the time span, the circumstances, the number of candidates and everything else, this is a once-in-a-lifetime campaign,” said Republican Poway City Councilwoman Linda Brannon, one of seven GOP candidates in the race. “Just about everything about it is unique.”

“This is a blink-your-eye-and-it’s-over kind of campaign,” added Glenn Richardson, another GOP candidate.

Despite its short duration, the campaign likely will end up being more expensive than most full-length Assembly contests--again, largely because of the rarity of an “open” seat race. With three major candidates planning to spend at least $150,000 each, the price tag for the primary alone is expected to approach $1 million.

Recognizing the numerical possibilities of an exceptionally low turnout being splintered among nine people, the candidates and their strategists acknowledge that even seemingly minor first-time candidates could play a pivotal role in next month’s primary. By siphoning off critical votes from the front runners, the long shots could scramble the vote breakdowns, conceivably allowing one of the lesser-known candidates to slip into the runoff.

That potential is of gravest concern to the three candidates who appear to be running the most well-rounded, well-funded campaigns: Brannon, Poway businessman Dick Lyles and Bonita nurse Tricia Hunter. Each has assembled a sizable grass roots organization, is well on the way to a six-figure campaign budget, appears polished in front of campaign audiences and can point to significant backing and endorsements.

A second tier of strong challengers, each of whom hopes to spend about $100,000, includes San Diego Police Lt. Bill Hoover of Escondido, state Senate legislative aide Dennis Koolhaas of Escondido and Richardson, a former television commentator from Rancho.

The district’s demographics alone appear to diminish the chances of the two Democrats in the race--Jeannine Correia, an instructor of the retarded from Poway, and mental health worker Stephen Thorne of Escondido. Meanwhile, retired appliance-store owner Ray Foster of Spring Valley summed up the long odds that he confronts in his low-budget campaign this way: “I’m out to answer the question: ‘Can a guy make his initial political run after age 65 and be successful?’ ”

In this case, the answer appears to be: Not likely.

However, as Correia points out, because of the peculiar nature of the 76th District contest, “no one can be automatically counted out.” As a result, most of the candidates are able to offer winning scenarios that, while still implausible, cannot be dismissed quite as lightly as they normally would be.

The Democrats’ admittedly slim chances, for example, hinge on hopes that a solid Democratic turnout could swamp a light, splintered GOP vote. Other candidates talk of attracting specific blocs of voters while their opponents neutralize each other. Republicans and Democrats alike are placing a strong emphasis on absentee ballots, viewing that as a surer source of votes than Election Day polling places.

Similarly, as the only Riverside County candidate in the race, Richardson is particularly intrigued by the race’s potential arithmetic possibilities.

“San Diego has (about 70%) of the vote and eight candidates, and Riverside has (30%) and one candidate,” Richardson noted. “Interesting math. Very interesting math.”

Candidates’ biographies. Page 2.

ASSEMBLY CANDIDATES’ POSITIONS Candidate: Linda Brannon Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? no Top 3 spending priorities: crime-drugs, traffic solutions, education Most important issue in distict: crime Candidate: Jeannine Correia Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? no Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? yes Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? yes Ban on sale of assault rifles? yes Top 3 spending priorities: health, education, transportation Most important issue in distict: education Candidate: Ray Foster Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? yes Top 3 spending priorities: crime-drugs, education, anti-poverty aid Most important issue in distict: drugs Candidate: Bill Hoover Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? no Top 3 spending priorities: crime-drugs, transportation, health care Most important issue in distict: quality of life Candidate: Tricia Hunter Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? yes Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? yes Ban on sale of assault rifles? yes Top 3 spending priorities: crime, education, transportation Most important issue in distict: growth Candidate: Dennis Koolhaas Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? yes Top 3 spending priorities: education, crime-drugs, health Most important issue in distict: finishing Bradley’s legislative agenda Candidate: Dick Lyles Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? no Top 3 spending priorities: transportation, education, crime-drugs Most important issue in distict: drugs Candidate: Glenn Richardson Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? yes Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? no Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? no Ban on sale of assault rifles? yes Top 3 spending priorities: education, transportation, crime-gambling Most important issue in distict: school growth Candidate: Stephen Thorne Favor constitutional amendment to prohibit burning the American flag? no Support woman’s right to abortion on demand? yes Should public funds be used for abortions for poor women? yes Ban on sale of assault rifles? no Top 3 spending priorities: mental health, education, drug rehab programs Most important issue in distict: social program funding