Dire Results Predicted Without a New Airport : Study Foresees Airline Congestion, Loss of Economic Growth as Consequences

San Diego will have one of the nation’s most congested airports and lose billions of dollars in forfeited economic growth if no new airport is built by 2010, a new study warns.

Replacing the overburdened Lindbergh Field with a larger airport would add $33 billion to $53 billion to the region’s economy over the next seven decades, according to the report.

The study, commissioned by the San Diego Assn. of Governments (Sandag) and written by KPMB Peat Marwick of San Francisco, was made public Monday. By comparing the long-term economic impact of a new airport to that of Lindbergh Field, the study provides fresh ammunition for those arguing that San Diego must build a new field.

The study echoes “what we and others have been saying for a long time,” said San Diego Councilman Ron Roberts, a major proponent of a new airport. “What surprises me is the magnitude of the problem--both the potential losses and the congestion at Lindbergh.”

No Stand Taken

But, although the report estimated the economic impact of both options, it did not endorse either of them, cautioned Sandag special projects director Jack Koerper, who heads the group’s airport relocation study.

“If people want to use this information, then that’s their right,” Koerper said.

The report is full of information that might spur debate.

Turnover Expected to Double

It predicts that Lindbergh Field’s current passenger turnover of 10 million annually will double by the year 2011. Even before that happens, passengers can expect average flight delays of five to 10 minutes, and 25 minutes to one hour and 40 minutes during peak hours, congestion comparable to that of Chicago’s O’Hare airport, the authors noted.

At that point, airlines would begin to divert flights from San Diego and stop expanding their local operations, according to the report.

Loss of Jobs

Failure to replace Lindbergh Field with a new airport would cost the region 48,000 airport jobs by 2060, the authors predicted. That year, Lindbergh Field could accommodate 25 million passengers, while 40 million could pass through a new airport if one was built, according to the report.

The industry that has more at stake than most is tourism, said Sandag economist Marney Cox. Of the $1.22 billion Lindbergh Field contributed to the local economy in 1988, $700 million was money spent here by visiting air travelers, the report said. Tourist spending would account for much of the money generated by a new airport (and lost if it is not built), Cox said. But he said the report did not address how many visitors would come to the city by other means of transport when faced with an overcrowded Lindbergh Field.

The latest report is part of a continuing Sandag study of San Diego’s airport system, including plans for a new airport. Next month, planners will take one last look at Lindbergh Field to see if it could be expanded to satisfy the region’s future needs, Koerper said.

Proposed alternatives include two sites in and next to the Miramar Naval Air Station and one on the U. S.-Mexican border on Otay Mesa.