U.S. Plans Long Struggle to Aid Afghan Rebels

The Bush Administration, acknowledging that it was deluded by its own confident predictions of a speedy end to the Soviet-backed government of Afghanistan, is preparing for a drawn-out struggle to keep arms and other aid flowing to the anti-government guerrillas during what could be years of inconclusive fighting, according to U.S. officials.

The officials said that supporters of the moujahedeen, as the insurgents are known, have prevailed over skeptics within the Administration who wanted to sharply reduce U.S. support of the guerrillas unless they improve their military performance by mid-November, the onset of winter in the country’s rugged mountains.

“There is no deadline, and there will be none,” a senior State Department official said.

Other officials said that critics within the Administration have argued that the “cost-benefit ratio” of supporting the moujahedeen has dipped sharply since Soviet troops ended their nine-year occupation Feb. 15.

The critics, mostly defense and intelligence analysts, are concerned that the United States will become bogged down in Afghanistan, pouring increasing amounts of money into a stalemated conflict. These critics also express concern that continued U.S. aid to the moujahedeen will sour U.S.-Soviet relations, a result that could make the price of the Afghan effort prohibitively high.

Supporters of the moujahedeen, mainly in the State Department, argue that shipments of U.S. weapons to the insurgents are needed to balance massive amounts of weapons that Moscow has sent to the Afghan army in the last few months. One backer of the rebels said it would be in Washington’s interest to demonstrate to the Soviets the futility of trying to bolster an unpopular client government with arms and other military equipment.

The senior State Department official minimized the debate within the Administration, although he said: “I can understand why there is skepticism after the predictions (of a quick moujahedeen victory) last year.” And he conceded that the Administration may find it increasingly difficult to maintain congressional support for aid to the guerrillas.

Officials of Saudi Arabia, which has helped the United States finance the military assistance for the rebels , have expressed concern in recent weeks that Washington might set the rebels adrift. These officials say the Saudi government will continue to support the insurgents even if the United States does not.

The moujahedeen were widely perceived as victors in their long war of resistance against the Soviet occupiers when Moscow pulled out the last of its troops. At that time, Administration officials predicted that the guerrillas would quickly dispose of the government of Najibullah.

However, since then the insurgents have been unable to take a single one of Afghanistan’s major population centers despite bitter and costly battles for the cities of Jalalabad and Kandahar.

The State Department official maintained that the guerrillas’ military situation is far better than it appears to be because they control much of the countryside and are in a position to gradually strangle Kabul and other cities by preventing the delivery of food, military equipment and other supplies. But he conceded that it may be a long time before they can score a major breakthrough.

“This approach will take a lot more time,” the official said. “There have been no dramatic victories, and there may not be any before the end of the year. The regime has pulled back into fortified enclaves. The resistance has not been able to take them, and I don’t think they can take them by frontal assaults.”

He said the rebel force is split into factions, most of them tribally based and often antagonistic to each other. This factionalism caused only minor problems during the period of the hit-and-run guerrilla war against the Soviets. But the official said that the lack of cooperation is one reason that the moujahedeen have been unable to mount the kind of assault needed to capture a fortified city.

Critics in the Administration maintain that the U.S. government should give the moujahedeen an ultimatum that unless they get their political affairs in order, U.S. aid will cease. But the State Department official said that Afghan society always has been highly individualistic and that it is unrealistic to expect the rebels to form the sort of central command that directed the Viet Cong’s successful insurgency in Vietnam.

Earlier this month, seven top moujahedeen commanders and more than 20 other rebels were ambushed and murdered by a rival guerrilla group while returning from a strategy meeting in northern Afghanistan. The State Department official said that the massacre reinforced the mutual suspicion among the insurgents but that its most damaging impact may be on Western public opinion.

“I have been told by senior resistance commanders that this sort of thing happened before and it will happen again,” the official said. But he said that such incidents are sure to undermine support for the rebels in the United States.