Contras May Press War in Nicaragua : Rebels Agree to Close Honduran Bases but Rebuff Call to Disarm All Troops

Nicaraguan rebel leaders said Tuesday they will respect an accord by Central American presidents to close their bases in Honduras but might deploy at least half their guerrillas into Nicaragua rather than disarm.

The landmark agreement, signed Monday after a five-nation summit, was swallowed with bitter resignation by a Contra movement long dependent on U.S. assistance and Honduran sanctuary--and now on the verge of losing both by the end of the year.

But in separate interviews and public statements after the summit, seven Contra leaders said their armed struggle against the decade-old Sandinista revolution is not necessarily over.

“We are not going to oppose the will of the Honduran government if it no longer wants to be our host. But nobody can deny our right to exist as an armed nationalist movement trying to eradicate Marxism in Nicaragua,” said Israel Galeano, the Contra army chief of staff known as Commander Franklin.

Idled Army

Some Contra commanders said they must pare down their idled army of about 11,000 fighters and learn to survive--as they did before U.S. aid began flowing in late 1981--on weapons captured from the larger Sandinista army.

Contra foot soldiers returning to Nicaragua, they said, will join hundreds already inside the country in trying to avoid combat until after elections there Feb. 25, then will decide whether there is cause to resume offensive operations.

President Bush and rebel leaders had lobbied the leaders of Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica to keep the Contra army intact in its bases as a military threat that would ensure a fair election outcome.

But the U.S. allies accepted Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s demand for a peace plan to “demobilize” the Honduran-based rebels by Dec. 5. They acted on the basis of a 40-point agreement on democratic guarantees achieved by the Sandinista leader in talks with civilian political opponents on the eve of the summit.

In Washington, the Bush Administration maintained that the December deadline is not binding and said it will resist any efforts to demobilize the Contras until the Sandinista government institutes democratic reforms. Nonetheless, White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said the United States is “generally supportive” of the Central American summit agreement.

Bosco Matamoros, the rebel spokesman in Washington, said the Administration bungled the summit by “trying to impose a strategy within 24 hours.” He added: “It was too late. The pressure backfired. Each country found reasons of short-term national interest to support this agreement.”

Other Contra leaders said it is time to stop depending on their undependable allies in Washington.

“We now have a chance to prove that we are not an artificial creation of the United States,” said Xavier Arguello, a political-military adviser to the rebel leadership.

Discussing Future

Rebel commanders met Tuesday in Yamales, their main camp along the Nicaraguan border, to discuss the future.

Some urged holding off major troop infiltrations into Nicaragua until the arrival of an international verification team that will supervise talks between Contra and Sandinista leaders.

Some commanders want to use the talks to strengthen Ortega’s commitments to the political parties as a basis for disarming. They said they might send an official mission to check political conditions in Nicaragua.

In a broadcast Tuesday on the rebels’ Radio Liberacion, Enrique Bermudez, the Contra commander in chief, said: “We know that in Nicaragua no steps have been taken toward true democratization. We are going to demand that the Sandinistas comply with their promises.”

Bermudez said he will seek amnesty for anti-Sandinista prisoners as a first step. Nicaragua is holding about 1,600 such prisoners and has offered to free them when the verification panel, to be named by the Organization of American States and the United Nations, certifies that the Honduran camps have been closed.

Talks between the Contras and Sandinistas--broken off 14 months ago during an informal cease-fire that is still in force--are contemplated in the summit agreement. But this is only as a means of facilitating the voluntary return of unarmed Contras to Nicaragua, rather than delaying a shutdown of the camps.

Contra leaders claim to have 11,000 fighters in Honduras and at least 3,000 more in Nicaragua. Lt. Col. Ricardo Wheelock, the chief of Sandinista army intelligence, says 7,000 rebels are in Honduras and 2,200 in Nicaragua.

The summit accord calls for the rebels’ voluntary repatriation to Nicaragua or relocation as refugees in third countries. It spells out no forcible action to disarm or dislodge them from Honduras. But if backed by the Congress, it could end their non-lethal U.S. aid, now delivered to the camps, after the Dec. 5 deadline. Their U.S. military aid was cut off in February, 1988.

While calling for a diversion of the U.S. aid to help resettle the Contras, Sandinista officials said the peace plan also depends largely on their own ability to persuade them that Nicaragua is now a freer country.

Peasant in His 20s

That will be a hard task. The average rebel foot soldier is a peasant in his early 20s who has been fighting since his late teens, according to an internal rebel survey. Most were driven to rebellion by Sandinista land seizures, enforced collectivization or military conscription.

The official Contra view of harsh political repression in Nicaragua pervades the rebel camps. It is reinforced by what Americas Watch, the New York-based human rights agency, recently called a “pattern of killings of suspected Contra collaborators” by the army and the police in northern Nicaragua in the past year.

“The idea that our people can return without problems to their homes is simply ridiculous,” said Jose Medina Cuadra, president of the Miami-based Contra political assembly.

Rodolfo Sandino, a lawyer for the Contras human rights office here, said a recent survey of 1,800 foot soldiers showed that “virtually nobody” is ready to go home as a civilian.

But he said only about half seemed willing to keep fighting if the bases closed; the rest had no clear idea where to go.

Similarly, Contra and U.S. officials said they fear the demobilization plan will prompt thousands of rebels to quit their ranks, even if the plan is not forcefully implemented.

“We’ll probably end up with about 40% of the troops staying, no more,” one Contra official said. “Some units will go into Nicaragua. Others will demobilize.”

So far, no country but Nicaragua has expressed a willingness to accept the Contras as refugees. Those unwilling to fight or return to Nicaragua must now choose between squalid Honduran refugee camps--crowded by about 30,000 civilian relatives of Contras--or illegal entry into the United States and other nations.

“This is a massive problem that will be difficult to manage in such a short time,” Sandino said.

For those willing to fight on, the Sandinista army is waiting. Ortega told Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez last month that once the Contra camps are closed, the rebels will devolve into disorganized bands with poor communications and be destroyed militarily within a year.

That may already be happening. Despite orders from superiors to refrain from offensive operations, small bands of rebels have stepped up attacks in recent months, according to commanders on both sides. The Sandinistas have reported 58 such attacks on civilian targets and 33 deaths since mid-April.

‘Fighting Own War’

“They are fighting their own war--a rebellion within a rebellion,” said Luis Adan Fley, the rebel’s chief legal officer.

Contra leaders will not say how much ammunition is left of their U.S.-supplied stocks, but it apparently is relatively little. However, a reporter who visited the Yamales camp last week saw a 62-member patrol setting out for southern Nicaragua with what appeared to be new machine guns and rocket launchers.

In a poignant daybreak ceremony before starting the two-month trek, the soldiers knelt in prayer with their weapons.

“God bless you on this mission,” intoned the evangelical preacher, himself an armed member of the patrol. “May the day come soon when Nicaragua will be delivered from fear and repression.”

Commander Nelson, the 28-year-old patrol leader, said his fighters were aware they might be going to Nicaragua to stay; Yamales may be dismantled when their normal eight-month rotation is over.

“If we are going to lose the war, we might as well lose it in fighting in Nicaragua,” said one soldier.

CONTRA PLAN HIGHLIGHTS

Details of Central American plan for disbanding Nicaraguan Contra camps in Honduras, as agreed to by the five regional presidents. Accord calls for creation by the United Nations and Organization of American States of an international support and verification commission before Sept. 6.

Within 90 days, commission is to:

Participate in talks between Contras and Sandinista government. Receive arms handed over by the rebels. Monitor return of Contras and their families to Nicaragua or seek third countries for their resettlement. Provide basic services to returning Contras. Dismantle Contra bases in Honduras. Urge international organizations to grant financial support for repatriation of rebels and families.

Times staff writer Doyle McManus, in Washington, contributed to this story.