Moscow Launches Lebanon Peace Bid : Soviets, Arab League Seek Accord in Time for Shevardnadze-Baker Talks

In a last-ditch effort to end the escalating Lebanese crisis, the Soviet Union and the Arab League are working behind the scenes to win support from Christian and Muslim warlords for a revived seven-point peace plan, U.S. officials and Arab diplomatic sources said Thursday.

The goal is to obtain a general agreement before a Sept. 20 meeting between Secretary of State James A. Baker III and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze at which Lebanon’s 14-year civil war will be a topic high on the agenda.

The negotiations represent a potentially promising development for a breakthrough in the Lebanon impasse. But Bush Administration officials cautioned that the efforts could fall through, as have dozens of previous peace initiatives since the war erupted in 1975.

U.S. Gives Blessing

The Administration has given the plan its blessing, according to a State Department source. He noted, however, that several sticking points prevent the United States from getting “prematurely excited” about the effort.

Arab sources said that Moscow played the pivotal role in breaking a deadlock that had forced a special Arab League committee to abandon its fledgling peace initiative just three weeks ago.

The turning point was the Soviet Union’s ability to win Syria’s tentative acceptance of the Arab League’s seven-point plan, which calls for a phased withdrawal of 40,000 Syrian troops based in Lebanon since 1976. Moscow is Syria’s main arms supplier.

“Many developments have taken place over the last fews days which allow us to be a little more optimistic than at any time in the last year,” said Clovis Maksoud, the Arab League’s representative to the United Nations.

“International efforts, specifically the Soviet initiative, have provided a conducive stimulant for all parties in Lebanon to abandon their intransigence,” he said.

Maksoud also gave partial credit to increased U.S.-Soviet cooperation on defusing regional conflicts. “This initiative is not in confrontation or competition with the United States but is a product of the new spirit of cooperation between the two superpowers,” he said.

According to U.S. and Arab sources, Moscow hopes that a major Soviet role in bringing an end to the crisis in Lebanon will open the way for greater Soviet involvement in negotiations to end the Arab-Israeli dispute.

Ironically, the U.S. withdrawal of the last 30 American diplomats in Beirut may contribute to the renewed peace effort by making right-wing Christians recognize their limited diplomatic options. U.S. Ambassador John McCarthy and 29 embassy staff members were evacuated Wednesday morning in response to threats by militant Christians who had laid siege to the embassy.

An Arab diplomatic source called the withdrawal “a blessing in disguise.” He said that Maj. Gen. Michel Aoun, the Christian commander of the Lebanese army and acting premier, “may now be jolted into some sense. He will have to be more responsive” to peace efforts.

A major obstacle to past peace efforts has been Maronite Christian intransigence over reforms designed to bring about a balance of power between the majority Muslim community and the minority Christians, who have dominated Lebanon’s political system since the nation’s independence from France more than four decades ago.

Dr. George Saadeh, a Christian member of Parliament and president of the right-wing Falangist Party, has backed the Arab League committee’s peace plan, according to Arab sources. But Aoun’s cooperation is considered essential to win Christian participation.

The possibility that Aoun could reject the peace plan is considered by U.S. officials to be the biggest potential peril facing the initiative. France may play a key role in persuading the Christians to accept the Arab League plan, but Paris reportedly was furious about the U.S. Embassy evacuation.

One official said the withdrawal “sent the wrong signal to the Syrians, in effect telling them to take over Lebanon.”

French officials were sufficiently angry about the move that this official decided to air a French grievance against Washington. He said that Paris had provided significant information about “complicity of the Syrian army in drug trafficking in Lebanon through the continent” but that the information was ignored--even though the United States was preparing to launch an all-out war on drugs.

Left-wing Muslim militias have been persuaded by the Soviet Union, Syria and Saudi Arabia to accept the Arab League plan, according to Arab diplomats. Syria also pledged to bring along the fringe Shiite Muslim extremist movements, although U.S. officials believe that Shiite concurrence will depend on Iran’s support for the proposal.

Arab envoys said Moscow applied intense diplomatic pressure on Syrian President Hafez Assad while offering unspecified incentives to support the peace plan. Moroccan King Hassan II and Algerian President Chadli Bendjedid, two members of the special Arab League peace committee, met with Assad for key talks in Tripoli during the 20th anniversary celebrations of Libya’s revolution last week. Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd--the other member of the committee--also has been a major influence in persuading the Damascus government.

Despite the cautious optimism among Arab officials, the Bush Administration was skeptical.

“Whenever it comes to peace efforts in Lebanon, one is guarded in one’s optimism,” said a senior Administration source. “But we have made clear that we’ll support Arab League efforts, and this is no exception. If we can be helpful, we will.”

The official also noted: “The Soviets are in a good position to be helpful if they want. They have influence in Baghdad (Iraq) and Damascus, with the PLO and Tehran (Iran),” a reference to the major players that have a significant presence or influence in Lebanon.

“They also have an incentive--to get into the broader game,” he said. “But first they have to prove their bona fides. “

Senior State Department official Dennis Ross, who is one of Baker’s closest aides, is in Europe for talks with Gennady Tarasov, a leading Soviet official on the Middle East. The State Department confirmed that the talks were initiated by Moscow.

The 14-year civil war has escalated since March into a fight to the finish pitting Maronite Christians in the army and private militias against Muslim gunmen and their Syrian supporters. More than 800 people have been killed and 2,400 injured in a conflict that has seen 80% of the population flee the capital.

The first step of the seven-point peace plan would be a cease-fire, followed by a partial Syrian withdrawal to Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley, according to sources close to Saudi Arabia.

Lebanese Parliament members then would meet in Saudi Arabia to work out political reforms. A rough draft worked out by the three members of the Arab League committee--Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Morocco--calls for an even split in parliamentary representation between Christians and Muslims.

The presidency would remain in the hands of the Maronite Christians. But the powers of the presidency would be significantly diminished, while that of the premiership, held by a Sunni Muslim, would be increased. The Shiites would retain the position of Parliament Speaker, but a new job may be created for a Shiite vice president.

Elsewhere in the Lebanese government, including the civil service, the current sectarian division of jobs on a 6-to-5 ratio--with Christians having the edge over Muslims in jobs ranging from the judiciary to postal officials--would be phased out over a transition period in favor of selection by merit.

The plan then calls for Parliament to reconvene in Beirut to elect a new president, a process stalled for more than a year because of Parliament’s inability to meet at its building on the Green Line, which divides the capital. That failure led outgoing President Amin Gemayel to appoint Aoun as acting premier.

The most difficult step will be the final point, which calls for the withdrawal of all Syrian and Israeli troops from Lebanon. Since its 1985 pullback after a three-year occupation of Lebanon, Israel has maintained a small security enclave in southern Lebanon.