Pro-Choice Is Winning Political War : Abortion: Victories in Congress, Florida and public opinion add to the tally. And California legislators are listening.

How quickly the abortion winds have shifted. Last July, the U.S. Supreme Court approved state restrictions on abortion in a decision that left the landmark Roe vs. Wade decision in tatters. Three months later, the pro-choice movement achieved its most sweeping political victories in decades by defeating abortion restrictions in Florida and reversing longstanding, rigid congressional limits on publicly funded abortions.

Even though the White House has said that President Bush will veto the bill to relax restrictions on funding abortions for poor women, its proponents were heartened by the fact that that they had 50 more votes than last year.

In California, the same powerful forces are at work. When the Legislature reconvenes in January, pro-choice legislators will likely defeat every bill to restrict abortions.

Evidence of a massive political shift favoring abortion rights in California is overwhelming. In a September special Assembly election, voters in conservative San Diego and Riverside counties replaced the deceased author of California’s parental consent abortion law with a pro-choice Republican. At the same time, Orange County’s conservative Sen. John Seymour, who is seeking the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor, switched his position on abortion to pro-choice. So did Sen. Ed Davis (R-Valencia).

With these new votes, pro-choice is the majority view in both the Assembly and state Senate. This means that next year, for the first time, our Legislature will probably vote to fully fund abortions for poor women. Already this year, the Assembly approved Medi-Cal funded abortions by a 39-32 vote; though the Senate voted 21 to 19 against funding, the result will be reversed next year when Seymour and Davis cast their ballots.

This dramatic political change is due in part to the awakening of the pro-choice movement, which in the past took for granted the right to abortion established in Roe vs. Wade. More significant, though, is that Americans do not like government telling them what to do with their private lives.

Most people recognize that the decision whether to have a child is personal. It ought to be a family decision; it is often a medical decision, and for most it is a religious or moral decision--but it is not a government decision. By successfully and properly framing the debate as a question of a woman’s choice, abortion rights advocates have found a way to appeal to moderates and conservatives who are uncomfortable with pro-abortion rhetoric. One need not be pro-abortion to be pro-choice.

Despite this, California legislators opposed to abortion are certain to test the post-Webster waters by introducing a variety of bills aimed at establishing a waiting period before an abortion can be performed; requiring fetal viability tests and imposing rigid standards on abortion clinics. If abortion opponents do pursue such a strategy, however, they risk the same devastating defeat suffered last week by their allies in Florida, where Gov. Bob Martinez, who proposed similar abortion restrictions, has been so weakened that he could be voted out of office next year.

The votes in Congress and the Florida Legislature mostly reflect the careful reading by elected representatives of this shifting popular opinion. To some, it might seem like opportunism. In reality, it is democracy in action. Of course, many California legislators will cast their abortion votes, pro or con, for moral reasons, regardless of their constituents’ views. But a decisive number will vote purely as representatives of the people who elected them.

One other factor favors the pro-choice position. In the past, some legislators voted against state-funded abortions for the poor in the belief that the courts would strike down such restrictions. They calculated that they could please the anti-abortionists without having to live with the prospect of back-alley illegal abortions for the poor. They can no longer absolutely count on the courts to bail them out, though it is still unlikely that the California Supreme Court will reverse its decisions establishing a right to abortion here.

The U.S. Supreme Court decision against womens’ right to choose abortion may end up strengthening abortion rights. Undoubtedly in many states the Webster decision will have its intended effect. But in California, as last week in Florida and in Congress, pro-choice advocates have never been stronger.