Baker May Soon Drop Mideast Peace Efforts : Diplomacy: Daily phone calls to Egypt and Israel have failed to revive Prime Minister Shamir’s plan for Arab elections.

Secretary of State James A. Baker III, apparently frustrated by a fruitless round of Middle East diplomacy, may soon abandon his effort to start peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, a senior State Department official said Friday.

Although no one is yet prepared to rule out the possibility of success, the official made it clear that Baker has made very little progress, despite almost daily telephone conversations with the foreign ministers of Israel and Egypt.

Baker has been trying to revive Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s seemingly moribund plan for elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, where a 22-month-old Arab uprising against the Israeli occupation has killed hundreds.

The State Department official, who asked not to be named, said that there is “a limit to how long you continue. . . . You don’t continue from here to eternity.”

Noting that Baker has promised to publish details of his latest initiative once it either succeeds or is written off as a failure, the official said: “We are getting very close to where we will dump them (the details) out.”

The remarks seem designed to increase the pressure on Shamir and his right-wing Likud Party. Shamir and Likud have resisted calls by Baker, the Egyptian government and Israel’s centrist Labor Party for seemingly modest procedural changes in Shamir’s original election plan that might make it palatable to the Palestinian residents of the occupied territories.

Shamir has steadfastly refused to consider any revisions of his proposal despite Palestinian rejection of it in its present form. Baker and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak have said the Palestinians might agree to participate in the election plan if Shamir accepts some changes.

Now, in effect, the State Department is suggesting that--if Shamir continues to resist--the United States may pull back from the Middle East peace process. Although the prime minister frequently complains about U.S. initiatives, he has made it clear that he does not want Washington to reduce its interest in the region.

Earlier this week, State Department spokeswoman Margaret Tutwiler described as “unhelpful and . . . disappointing” a speech in which Shamir complained of undue U.S. pressure on Israel to talk directly with the Palestine Liberation Organization.

The next day, however, Tutwiler said Washington never has urged Israel to talk to the PLO, in effect assuring Shamir that one of his primary concerns was unfounded.

The latest U.S. gambits seem to fit a pattern that Baker has established for relations with Israel in which pressure is increased, relaxed and increased again. So far, at least, there is very little evidence that the tactic has helped.

On Friday, Tutwiler left little doubt that Baker is pessimistic about the chances for his initiative.

“As you know, as the secretary said in New York (after Middle East talks last month) there may be a possibility for progress, but certainly not a probability,” Tutwiler said. “That remains his view today.

“If in the end the parties in the area are not prepared to pursue peace, then progress will not be made,” she said. “If the parties do not have the will to overcome their political constraints, we cannot produce progress by ourselves.”

Tutwiler also denied a report in the Jerusalem Post. The newspaper said Baker gave Shamir “guarantees” that Washington will not pressure Israel into concessions that it is not prepared to make.

Reminded that she had said earlier this week that Baker promised not to ask Israel to negotiate with the PLO, Tutwiler said: “That’s one assurance. . . . . The front page of the Jerusalem Post . . . (asserts) that the secretary has given assurances--plural.” She said that is not accurate.