House Unlikely to Override Bush Veto of Abortion Measure Today : Congress: Members of both parties criticize the President’s action. But serious political damage is discounted.

In a showdown likely to have major political fallout, the House is scheduled to vote today on whether to override President Bush’s veto of a bill authorizing government-paid abortions for poor women who are victims of rape or incest.

Although Bush’s veto appears almost certain to be upheld, an increasing number of Democrats and some Republicans said that the President had made a political mistake by rejecting a $156.7-billion health and welfare funding bill because of the abortion provision.

But White House officials and Bush’s defenders on Capitol Hill said that he had to veto the measure to demonstrate consistency to supporters who may suspect the depth of his commitment to the anti-abortion position.

The President’s critics contend that national sentiment is shifting in favor of expanding abortion rights--at least in rape and incest cases--since the Supreme Court decided last June to give states expanded power to limit abortions.

They cited the dramatic 216-206 vote in the House two weeks ago to ease the prohibition against Medicaid funding for all abortions except those needed to protect the life of the mother. Before this year’s vote to broaden the policy to include rape and incest victims, the tougher restriction had been adopted every year since 1976.

“No matter what happens, the pro-choice movement is going to win,” Rep. Les AuCoin (D-Ore.) predicted. “If we get momentum beyond 216 (votes), it will be another benchmark in the dramatic forward march of the pro-choice forces and will set the stage for a knockdown, drag-out campaign next year.”

Refusal of the Florida Legislature to tighten laws against abortion and campaign setbacks by Republican gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia because of their anti-abortion stands also were mentioned as signs of the changing climate.

Even House Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.), usually cautious in his appraisals of presidential actions, said of Bush’s veto: “There seems to be some impact, some political damage.”

Although abortion-rights forces may have the upper hand in some states, legislators in Pennsylvania appeared likely to hand anti-abortion activists a key victory. By a vote of 143 to 58, the Pennsylvania House agreed Tuesday to impose significant new controls on abortion.

Meanwhile, Bush’s supporters on the issue insisted that he had made the right choice by sticking to the position he outlined in the 1988 presidential campaign against funding of abortions unless the mother’s life is threatened by the pregnancy.

“He’s got to hang tough,” said Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), a leader of anti-abortion forces in the House. “He’s got his eye on ’92 and not losing his pro-life constituency.”

“(Bush) wins by holding firm,” Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.) added. “The worst political position you can be in is to be waffling.”

If the House sustains the veto, the appropriations measure for the Education, Labor and Health and Human Services departments must be enacted again. Although the Senate voted, 67 to 31, for the initial bill, enough to override a veto, no override vote will take place in the Senate if Bush wins in the House today.

White House officials predicted that Congress eventually will back down on the issue and that Bush will suffer no lasting political damage.

Kevin Phillips, a conservative political analyst, agreed that Bush had made the right choice. But he acknowledged that the focus on banning abortions for victims of rape and incest could be harmful to some Republicans and could hurt the party in the long run.

Rep. Arthur Ravenel Jr. (R-S.C.) went before reporters and television cameras Tuesday to assail the President’s veto.

“I think he’s getting some terrible advice, I really do,” Ravenel said. “I think he’s making a terrible political mistake and moral mistake. In his heart, I think he’s wrong.”

Another critic was Rep. William H. Natcher (D-Ky.), a prominent member of the House Appropriations Committee and author of the rejected appropriations bill. Natcher said he would advocate an override of the veto.

“It’s a shame about this bill,” Natcher said. “This bill means more to the people than any other, with money for Head Start and mental health, vocational education, National Institutes of Health, partnership job training.”

When asked if the veto was a mistake, Natcher snapped: “No question about it. And I like George Bush.”

Despite help from Natcher and other unexpected allies who had voted against the expansion of abortion rights two weeks ago, the abortion-rights forces appear unable to round up the 290 votes required to override the President.