U.S. Condemns Move, Hopes It Will Backfire

U.S. officials denounced Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega on Wednesday for ending the 19-month cease-fire with the Contras, but they expressed optimism that the move will backfire and inflame anti-Sandinista sentiment.

White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said Ortega’s decision is “deplorable,” adding that it confirms Ortega’s “desire to maintain power at all costs.”

Last Friday, Administration officials expressed shock and anger at Ortega’s threat to resume the fighting. Now, they are considering possible benefits.

For one thing, any resumption of wide-scale fighting could help Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, Ortega’s U.S.-backed opponent in February’s election, to portray herself as the “peace candidate,” a major advantage in a nation tired and torn by years of fighting.

“If Mr. Ortega wants to pursue a military conflict, if he wants to reopen the war, if he wants to begin the killing again, that’s his business,” Fitzwater said. “But from the United States’ standpoint, we pursue the peace process.”

For another, resumption of open warfare could reduce pressure for a quick demobilization of the rebel forces, which the Administration has resisted. Central American leaders agreed earlier this year to demobilize the Contras by Dec. 8.

The Administration does not plan to rearm the rebels but hopes to keep them in their camps in Honduras at least until the election.

In the wake of Ortega’s decision, U.S. officials have made progress in getting other nations to adopt their view that humanitarian aid to the Contras should continue past the Dec. 8 cutoff date.

“It’s pretty hard to argue that the Contras should lay down their arms and voluntarily repatriate into an atmosphere where Ortega has said he’ll shoot them,” an Administration official said.

At the hemispheric summit meeting last weekend in Costa Rica, President Bush ruled out resumption of military activities by the Contras, and officials made it clear Wednesday that this policy has not changed. The Administration does “not think it’s appropriate to speculate on military assistance” to the rebels, Fitzwater said.

“Our first purpose--our only purpose at this point--is to try to get the cease-fire back on track,” he said.

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher issued a blunt warning that the United States would “cut off humanitarian assistance to resistance forces who engage in offensive operations.”

“This policy is being reiterated in clear and compelling terms to the resistance,” Boucher said. “We support the cease-fire; we want to see it continued.”

U.S. officials said they are not sure to what extent Ortega’s decision will actually increase the fighting in Nicaragua. Both sides have been violating the informal truce for months on a random basis.

The Contras themselves “do not have any military capacity,” Contra spokesman Bosco Matamoros said.

“The only strategy they can carry out is to disperse as much as possible, to become invisible,” he added.

The Contra leadership is embittered by the Bush Administration’s decision earlier this year to abandon the armed struggle that the Reagan Administration encouraged and to concentrate instead on challenging Ortega in elections.

“We are on the edge between the abyss and survival in the forest,” Matamoros said. “The Administration’s statement of principles is a great comment for the historical record, but it won’t help these people survive.”

Elections in Nicaragua have been the chief focus of U.S. policy since last February. For now, the chief concerns among Bush’s aides are that Ortega might use a resumption of fighting as an excuse to cancel the elections or that the Sandinista army might use expanded operations to intimidate opposition candidates.

With voter registration in Nicaragua topping 90% and the opposition well funded by Washington, the Administration believes that there is at least some chance that Chamorro, the candidate for a 14-party opposition coalition, could defeat Ortega in a fair vote.

Times staff writer Doyle McManus contributed to this story.