Germany to Reunite, Stay With West, Quayle Predicts

Vice President Dan Quayle, expounding on a subject shunned by other Administration officials, predicted Monday that the dramatic changes in East Germany will inevitably lead to a reunified Germany that will maintain a military alliance with the West.

Quayle, in a news conference after a speech to Republican governors meeting here, cautioned that such an alliance would occur only after negotiations with U.S. allies and the Soviet Union, and after a reshuffling of military responsibilities in Europe.

“The unified Germany in defense alliances will continue to look West, will continue to be allied with the forces of freedom and democracy, which is the West,” Quayle declared.

Asked why the Soviet Union would acquiesce to such a move, he added: “These are things that we are going to have to resolve through discussions.”

The vice president’s statements marked the most expansive Bush Administration remarks on the future of East Germany. And his remarks appeared to run counter to an early Administration strategy to play down talk of reunification and its effect on military alliances.

Administration spokesmen insisted Quayle was not departing from the fold, although they conceded that President Bush and his advisers have been trying to dampen discussion of the issue.

“Reunification is the thing that’s going through the press’ mind,” said one official. “What we’re trying to do is say, ‘Hold it, there’s a whole process to go through here.’ ”

But the Administration’s chief preoccupation has been to avoid making any firm predictions about how long reunification might take. On that point, the official said, “Quayle’s safe.”

Indeed, Quayle avoided directly answering that question, emphasizing that many steps remain before unification can occur--including free elections and economic restructuring.

But, he added, “eventually you will see a reunification. It’s going to take some time, but the reunification of Germany is eventually inevitable.”

“Once the East German Communist system goes by the wayside, then there becomes a less convincing reason why it should be a separate country. That’s what keeps it separate. . . . East Germany is East Germany because of the Communist system. Do away with the Communist system, and it’s German.”

Germany was divided in 1945, when the United States and its victorious Allies partitioned it into four occupation zones.

In his remarks on the issue of reunification, Quayle repeatedly emphasized the need for caution.

“We have got to be very, very careful how we manage this situation,” he said.

Many of the United States’ North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies are apprehensive that German reunification would pose an economic and military threat. The Soviet Union has refused to discuss the idea in recent days.

Quayle acknowledged that reunification could only result from tough bargaining involving NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

“In a reunited Germany, we will be talking about different responsibilities, NATO responsibilities; Warsaw Pact; different responsibilities for the United States; different responsibilities for our collective security,” he said.

He ruled out any immediate or unilateral reductions in U.S. troop strength in Europe as a result of the recent events in East Germany.

Quayle also refused to commit the Administration to a financial aid package for the West Germans, who have borne the brunt of a massive wave of East German immigrants in recent weeks.

“We will certainly be of assistance to West Germany,” he said. “I’m less certain about a specific aid package. Germany’s budgetary matters and economy (are) doing reasonably well.”

Times staff writer David Lauter in Washington contributed to this story.