THE TIMES POLL : Americans Optimistic but Cautious on E. Bloc Reform

Americans are optimistic but cautious about the anti-Communist revolution sweeping Eastern Europe, believing that the democratic reforms are permanent but not yet dramatic enough to declare an end to the Cold War, The Times Poll has found.

However, while political leaders, analysts and scholars from Moscow to Berlin to Washington gingerly debate whether Germany should be reunified, the American public does not share their uneasiness. It overwhelmingly contends that Germany should be reunified after 44 years of postwar division.

American attitudes are full of contradictions as Eastern Europeans march for freedom. Americans see promise in the Soviet Bloc changes--but not enough to substantially change U.S. policies toward the bloc, the survey showed.

For example:

U.S. citizens want to spend less money for defense but do not want to withdraw troops from Western Europe.

They want to help Communist nations move toward democracy but do not want to give them more foreign aid.

They think the Soviet Union now seeks peace, but they also think President Bush should hold off making nuclear arms concessions until he is certain that Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev will survive as the Kremlin leader.

Meanwhile, Americans give Bush high marks for his handling of foreign affairs, but they believe he merely is reacting to events rather than trying to shape them.

They also tend to think that the Bush-Gorbachev shipboard summit in the Mediterranean on Dec. 2-3 will be a success.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 1,618 American adults by telephone for three days ending Sunday night. The margin of error for this size survey is three percentage points in either direction.

Interviews showed that the vast majority of Americans do not share the grave concerns about German reunification currently being expressed by many world leaders and political theorists on both sides of the crumbling Iron Curtain. Reuniting West Germany and East Germany not only would redraw geographic boundaries, it also would significantly alter military alliances and economic partnerships.

64% Back 1 Germany

In asking people how they felt about reunification, interviewers noted that after World War II, the Allies divided Germany “partly to make it more difficult for Germans to threaten the peace of Europe again.” But nearly two thirds of those surveyed--64%--said they “would like to see Germany reunified.” Only 10% were opposed, with 26% having no opinion.

Even 59% of the people age 65 and older--all of them adults during Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich--favored unification.

About half of those surveyed said they believed the pro-democracy changes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union are permanent. Only roughly one-fourth said they thought they are temporary.

Likewise, two-thirds said Soviet foreign policy goals have changed under Gorbachev, and one-third thought they had changed “extremely.” More than half said they believe the Soviets “want to live peacefully with the rest of the world,” and just a third feared the Soviets still “want to expand their power over other nations.”

By contrast, a Times Poll four years ago found that half the American public agreed with former President Ronald Reagan’s old characterization of the Soviet Union as the “evil empire.”

But, despite today’s softer attitude, an overwhelming majority--61%--insisted that “the Cold War is not over.” Less than a quarter of those surveyed thought that it was.

Therefore, although 45% advocated spending less tax dollars for defense, and just 10% wanted to spend more, only 37% thought the United States “should consider pulling some of its (340,000) troops out of Europe.” The majority--53%--opposed withdrawing any U.S. troops.

Americans similarly are hard-nosed about giving foreign aid to Communist nations. In fact, the prevailing view is to give less--despite Polish Solidarity leader Lech Walesa’s call last week for a new Marshall Plan to help rebuild the ailing economies of Eastern Europe.

Asked whether the United States should spend more or less money “for aid to Communist countries with economic difficulties,” about half of those surveyed advocated spending less. Only one in 10 supported spending more.

Somewhat paradoxically, however, nearly two-thirds of the people said “it is better to help Communist countries change their form of government (than) to do nothing and let them collapse.”

More than three-fourths predicted that Gorbachev--despite internal pressures generated by a deepening economic crisis--still will be the Soviet president a year from now. But if he does not survive in power, or is forced to cut back on economic or political reforms, hardly anyone--just 6%--thinks that Bush should “be blamed for not having helped enough.”

Meanwhile, nearly three-fourths of those surveyed said Bush should hold up making concessions on nuclear weapons until he “can be sure Gorbachev will survive.”

Arms Talks

At any rate, nuclear arms negotiations ranks very low on the list of American concerns. Only 5% named it as “the most important problem facing this country today.” (Those surveyed were given up to two replies.) By far “the most important problem” in the view of citizens, as has been shown in virtually every poll, is drug abuse. It was cited by 56%.

Bush was given a high grade for his overall job performance, with 66% approving and only 22% disapproving. On his specific handling of foreign affairs, 59% approved and 24% disapproved.

But the President, who has been criticized in some quarters for reacting cautiously to pro-democracy movements throughout the Communist world, did not get high marks for vision. Asked whether Bush “has a clear blueprint for the future, or is mostly trying to catch up with recent developments,” two-thirds said he is playing catch-up. Only one-sixth said he has a plan for the future.

Bush is basically popular, with 74% holding a favorable impression of the President. But about as many--71%--also have a favorable impression of Gorbachev. Nearly half of the people predicted that their summit will be a success, but they were guarded in their optimism, with most thinking it would be only partially successful.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS POLL

The Los Angeles Times Poll questioned 1,618 people nationwide by telephone last weekend on a number of foreign affairs topics.

Some responses (in percent):

Is the Cold War over? Over: 22 Not over: 61 Don’t know: 17 Changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are: Permanent: 48 Temporary: 26 Don’t know: 26 How is George Bush handling his job as President? Approve: 66 Disapprove: 22 Don’t know: 12 Source: L.A. Times Poll