Economy Posts 2.7% Growth for Quarter : GNP: The Commerce Department report is close to expectations, but some economists see a slowdown in the last three months of the year.

The U.S. economy grew at a moderate annual rate of 2.7% from July through September, the government reported today, but analysts say growth is slowing in the current quarter.

The increase reported by the Commerce Department in the broadest measure of economic health was higher than an estimate of 2.5% issued last month.

The revision was about in line with economists’ expectations, but it could still cause the Federal Reserve Board to move more cautiously in its campaign to lower interest rates as a stimulant to growth.

Most of the revision was attributed to a better-than-anticipated trade performance. The September trade deficit, which hit a five-year low, was unavailable when the advance estimate was made.

Exports climbed at an annual rate of 1.6% in the third quarter, compared to an earlier estimate of no change, and imports grew only 9.5%, compared to a 15.1% jump in last month’s report.

Consumer spending was also better than first thought, rising at a brisk annual rate of 6.2%--the strongest since the first quarter of 1988--compared to a preliminary estimate of 5.8%.

Inflation, as measured by a price index tied to the GNP, improved dramatically in the third quarter, rising at an annual rate of 2.9% after a 5% jump in the April-June quarter. Those figures were unchanged from the advance estimate.

The GNP grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter and for the first nine months of the year is averaging a 3% annual rate, just above the Bush Administration’s forecast for the year.

At the White House, presidential spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said, “We always like to see increase in growth. And this report is relatively good news in that sense.”

Still, many analysts believe that the economy will have a tough time meeting the target because of a dramatic slowing in the current three-month period. A few predict that the country will topple into a recession, ending the seven-year economic expansion that is unprecedented in peacetime.

It would take only a 1.8% GNP increase in the October-December quarter to match the Administration forecast, according to a Commerce Department analyst, but most private economists expect a growth rate of 1.5% or less.