ANALYSIS : Bush Carving Own Role as Top Commander

With Marine riflemen, Army paratroopers and Navy SEALS already moving through the darkness toward Panama, President Bush went over the final invasion plans one last time Tuesday night. At 4 a.m. Wednesday, he was still awake in his White House study when aides came to suggest an early morning televised address to the nation.

Reports of substantial casualties on both sides were pouring in, and Bush was eager to explain his decision to send U.S. troops against the regime of Panamanian strongman Manuel A. Noriega. The President readily agreed to go on television at 7 a.m. After a quick walk to his living quarters and a two-hour nap, he was back in the Oval Office by 6:30 a.m.

“He was very concerned about the loss of life,” said a senior government official, “but he also understands the role of the military and that they take those risks with pride.”

Bush, by turns open and secretive, somber and bantering, is putting his own characteristic stamp on one role an American President shares with no one else: commander in chief of the armed forces.

Outwardly he has made almost a fetish of sticking to a business-as-usual schedule since he met secretly with aides Sunday night to approve specific plans for the massive military strike. But behind the scenes, he has stayed in close touch with the unfolding events in Panama. He was not only deeply involved in the military planning; he also has been closely monitoring the results of the operation at every stage.

Yet for Bush and for every President, the decision to send military forces into action is a plunge into the unknown and the unknowable. Such action tests a President’s personal and political balance, his judgment and credibility, and ultimately his relationship with the people who elected him.

When U.S. forces go into combat, Presidents normally enjoy a surge of support as the public and Congress rally round the flag. Historically, sustaining that support has often proved difficult--especially if a conflict drags on and casualties continue.

For Bush, that longer-term political challenge may be particularly great in Panama because the tiny nation’s economy and governmental structures have been shattered by the U.S. assault, and the depth of resistance--fueled in part by the anti-Americanism endemic in Latin America--has surprised U.S. officials.

The President himself is well aware of these factors, said a senior aide, who described Bush as “intense but unemotional” Sunday as he questioned military officials about their plans to invade Panama.

“He knew it was a major decision for Panama and the United States, for his Administration and for history,” the aide said. “From Sunday afternoon until today (Thursday), it has been a sober time for him.”

And by all accounts, he has gone about his job as commander-in-chief with almost supreme self-confidence.

As he put it at an impromptu news conference Thursday, Bush intends “to conduct the foreign policy of this country the way I think best. If the American people don’t like it, I expect they’ll get somebody else to take my job, but I’m going to keep doing it.”

When a reporter asked if “it was really worth it to send people to their death” for the military objectives, Bush declared that Defense Department officials had been candid about the potential for casualties, adding: “And every human life is precious and yet I have to answer, yes, it has been worth it.”

Bush acknowledged at his news conference that he had been “extraordinarily frustrated” that Noriega had clung to power despite intense U.S. pressure. The aide said the President had made up his mind to take some kind of action against Noriega even before the Sunday afternoon White House meeting at which he decided to launch a massive military strike.

“He made a decision, a hard one and a very firm one, and he never wavered from it,” said a senior government official. “He believed the time had come to act, and there was no question of anyone trying to argue him out of it or anything. He said: ‘Let’s do it. If we don’t, it’ll only get worse.’ And people snapped to.”

The question then became: What kind of action? At the White House meeting, Bush listened intently as Army Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, outlined military options, including a possible “surgical strike” that would involve a limited number of troops whose mission would be to seize Noriega.

Aides said that the President quickly became convinced that massive force was the best way both to limit casualties and to achieve the broader objectives of protecting Americans in Panama and installing a new government headed by Guillermo Endara, the apparent winner of a May election that Noriega aborted.

Bush closely questioned Powell and other military officials about the details of their plan for a massive attack. One aide said that he asked such questions as: “Well, why do you want to take that building? And how long does it take to get from the airport to the site of the attack?” In particular, Bush carefully analyzed the potential risk to civilians.

Although the President has remained in almost constant contact with developments in Panama, he has managed to keep a regular schedule on other matters. He has gone to great lengths to give the appearance of business as usual at the White House.

He has told staffers and other Administration officials that they should not let the Panama situation interfere with their Christmas plans. When Secretary of State James A. Baker III asked Bush whether he should cancel his plans to return to his home in Texas for the holidays, the President told him it would not be necessary to remain in Washington.

Bush has not let the Panama situation interfere with his own Christmas schedule. He plans to spend Christmas at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, and leave two days later for a week’s visit to Texas. There he will go to the Beeville ranch of his friend Will Farish, where he traditionally spends the holidays between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said the President may stop off at the military hospital in San Antonio where servicemen wounded in Panama are being treated.

“I don’t know how the President manages to keep his equilibrium under such pressure,” said a senior government official. “I’ve seen a lot of frayed nerves during this Panama stuff, but not his. In times of stress, he seems to get cooler and quieter, which is a good signal for people to pay attention and do what they’re supposed to do. Some people who are under pressure beat up on other people, but not the President.”

Aides said that Bush realizes he still faces tremendous problems: the potential for even more casualties, a Panamanian government that will require considerable U.S. aid just to survive, Noriega’s continued potential to cause problems as long as he remains at large and a possible adverse reaction by the American public if Panama remains a long-term drain on American resources.

“He still has some anxieties because there are a lot of problems and potential problems still out there,” one White House official said. “But he’s genuinely pleased about the way the military performed, and he has assured himself that what he is doing is the right thing and realistic under the circumstances.”

And Bush’s own informal style of communicating with the public could also pose a problem. His tendency to minimize the significance of events and dampen expectations might not serve him well during a military crisis.

At his news conference Thursday, Bush projected his familiar image: a man at ease and able to joke, confident that matters are under control.

As he spoke, however, the bodies of soldiers killed in Panama were being unloaded at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. Viewers of CBS and CNN saw Bush smiling on one side of the screen, while on the other side Marine color guards were escorting caskets off C-141 Starlifter planes.

Fitzwater called the juxtaposition “unfortunate” and said that the networks were “unfair” not to tell the President they intended to show the arriving caskets side by side with the news conference.

Staff writer Thomas B. Rosenstiel contributed to this story.