Expect More Change, More of Same on Local TV, Radio

As the saying goes, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

The ‘80s saw an explosion in the quantity of television news shows, even if the quality remained relatively unchanged. In San Diego, newscasts at 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. were supplemented by 4:30 p.m., 6:30 p.m., noon and early morning shows.

On the radio dial, it was a decade of specialization, as stations targeted specific audiences with big results. They stopped just short of supplying a special format geared for white, 44-year-old males in love with bongo music, but here comes the wide open expanse of the ‘90s, when anything is possible.

There is certainly little doubt that this oft-detailed media explosion in San Diego will continue. The real question: How far will it go?

“I’m not sure San Diego is the type of city that will support a three-hour news block,” said KNSD-TV (Channel 39) news director Don Shafer, a reference to KCAL-TV’s (Channel 9) long-delayed plans to do a three-hour nightly newscast in Los Angeles.

But San Diegans, Shafer agrees, can expect to see more news on TV in the future.

“Local stations will find localness is the one thing they have that sets them apart from cable and entertainment channels and VCRs,” said KFMB-TV (Channel 8) news director Jim Holtzman. “It may be the decade of specialization.”

News programming will probably start to pop up at relatively unusual parts of the day, Holtzman said. Already a station in Sacramento is planning a news show from 2 a.m. to 6 a.m.

For better or worse, Holtzman also believes that news shows will continue to be personality-driven, if not more so in the future. In other words, the age of Barbie and Ken doll talking-head television news personalities may not have reached its apex, which may surprise those who believe television news couldn’t be more like a fashion show now.

In the near future, news programming will also take on different forms, according to Holtzman, such as talk and magazine-style shows.

Local news shows are already starting to become more interactive, involving viewers with the show through polls and live broadcasts. Viewers that are part of the show will be happy and loyal viewers, or so the theory goes.

Of course, it could mean news shows will also evolve more into “A Current Affair” and “Inside Edition”-type tabloid shows, so-called “infotainment” programs.

“There is definitely that blurry line between tabloid and news show,” Holtzman said. “I’m one of those that’s an optimist. I believe a lot of that tabloid stuff is going to play itself out over the next few years.”

With so much competition from outside sources, Holtzman believes, local stations really will have no choice but to do more local programming. Of course, this has been heard before.

“Hopefully we’ll see a time when local stations might be on the air from noon to 7 p.m. (with local programming),” Holtzman said. “I can see that type of thing happening. There are going to be whole new areas of local programming and local informational programming.”

Stations that are limited in their ability to get news shows on the air--Channel 10, for example, will never bump the successful Oprah Winfrey for a news show--might look in other directions. Channel 39’s Shafer believes joint ventures with cable might be the next important step for local news operations.

“Cable can’t produce local news, yet there is a lot of interest there,” he said. “There are a lot of things you can do inside a cable box you can’t do over the air.”

Technological advances are also bound to have some effect on radio. Homes wired with fiber optics will be able to receive a wide variety of information, including direct radio signals. The advent of advanced music systems, such as programmable compact disc players, may cut into radio audiences.

But radio, which is still the news and entertainment medium of choice in cars and outdoors, has shown itself to be incredibly resistant to outside influences. The death of radio has been predicted many times, but it appears stronger than ever.

San Diego radio stations reported a 20% increase in revenues in 1988, according to Paul Palmer, general manager of KFMB and president of the San Diego Broadcasters Assn., and there appears to be little reason to believe the industry won’t continue to grow.

Radio stations are still selling for record prices, and that has changed the face of the radio industry.

“The days of the mom and pop radio operation have really passed by,” Palmer said.

But just as the high price of stations has pushed the industry toward niche programming, targeting a relatively guaranteed audience, it will also limit it. A company paying $40 million for a radio station, with a huge debt to pay off, can’t afford to target an audience too small.

The pressure to rationalize the huge prices for stations is also bound to make stations more conservative, unwilling to take flagrant risks with unproven formats. On the AM dial, more stations will probably acknowledge the difficulties of programming music against the more established FM stations--except for established AM niche formats, like big-band music--and concentrate on news-talk and information programming, which apparently are immortal formats on AM, no matter how much news and information is available on TV.

In the ‘80s, much of the music on FM was geared toward the youth audience, variations of rock ‘n’ roll. But that audience is growing up.

“As baby boomers move into their 40s they are going to have a major impact,” said Palmer, who might be a little biased since both KFMB AM and FM program toward slightly older audiences.

Competition also will become more intense for markets only sporadically addressed right now, such as ethnic communities.

Due to finances, there will be intense pressure to find new, innovative formats, which means there will be spectacular successes and spectacular failures in the future.

For example, every programmer in the country will be looking for a new format like the “Wave,” the elevator-jazz format that swept the country two years ago, only to die out. Another example is “Pirate Radio,” the teen-oriented hard rock format currently causing hiccups in Los Angeles (and rumored to be headed to San Diego). They’ve managed to find a distinctive sound--a cherished goal--but everyone disagrees on how long a station programming to 17-year-old males can be successful.

Only time will tell.