NEWS ANALYSIS : For Bush, Panama Seen as Major ‘Political Bonanza’

Whatever the cost in lives or long-term U.S. relations with Latin America, the massive U.S. invasion of Panama appears to be a tremendous political plus for President Bush--maybe “the biggest political bonanza” to come any President’s way in 25 or 30 years, in the view of one senior Bush adviser.

Republican strategists, almost euphoric over public reaction to the military operation, declare that Bush finally has shed the “wimp” image that has dogged him since the 1988 presidential campaign. A GOP poll shows that Americans heavily favor the operation and that they are ready to leave American troops in Panama “as long as necessary.”

Even Democrats concede that, despite hundreds of casualties on both sides and heavy destruction in Panama City, the military operation represents a big political plus for the President, at least for the immediate future.

Down the road, however, Panama could pose a variety of problems for Bush--from lasting damage to U.S.-Latin American relations and possible embarrassing disclosures at the drug trial of deposed strongman Manuel A. Noriega to the high cost of rehabilitating Panama and propping up the U.S.-installed government of Guillermo Endara.

Some Latin American leaders have been extremely critical of the invasion, and specialists in Latin American affairs say that the damage goes beyond traditional rhetoric. Further, estimates of the cost of restoring Panama’s economy--devastated first by more than two years of U.S. economic sanctions and now by the invasion--will run into the billions of dollars.

“The cost of proselytizing democracy is not cheap,” warned James Schlesinger, a former Cabinet member of the Gerald R. Ford and Jimmy Carter administrations. He said that the United States will pay a heavy price in damaged Latin American relations if it leaves “a lot of wreckage behind.”

Republican National Committee Chairman Lee Atwater insisted that he sees no possible political downside to the Panama operation. But the President himself recognizes he may yet confront political fallout that is not all positive.

At a White House news conference Friday, Bush expressed concern that U.S.-Latin American relations may have been adversely affected. He pledged to campaign personally and send Vice President Dan Quayle on a mission to Latin American countries to try to repair any damage. And he emphasized that he has given “major priority” to revitalizing Panama’s economy and providing the country with humanitarian assistance.

Nothing to Say’

The President, who has said he is not concerned about the possibility of any embarrassing disclosures at a trial of Noriega, suddenly turned prickly when a reporter asked whether he had been aware of any drug trafficking by Noriega from 1981 to 1986, the period when a federal indictment alleges that the Panamanian was involved in a drug conspiracy.

Declaring that he had made statements on that subject in the past and did not want to “even inadvertently prejudice” the case against Noriega, Bush told the reporter: “So punch it in the computer, and I’ll have nothing more to say about it.”

In the past Bush has said that he did not know Noriega was suspected of drug trafficking until the Panamanian was indicted in February, 1988. Bush has denounced as “total lies” rumors of a secret Noriega-Bush connection.

As CIA director during the Ford Administration and later as vice president, Bush did have an official relationship with Noriega. But the President has pointed out that it was the Ronald Reagan-Bush administration “that brought this man to justice.”

The Noriega case notwithstanding--and its final resolution may be a year or more away--leaders of both parties say that Bush has reaped a rich political harvest from the military operation.

“He knocked the question about being timid and a wimp out of the stadium,” declared GOP chairman Atwater. “He listed four goals for the invasion--protecting American lives, restoring democracy in Panama, protecting U.S. rights under the Panama Canal Treaty and capturing Noriega--and he completed the mission. It was an absolute jackpot. The biggest single problem in America is drugs and the President just nabbed the king of the drug kingpins.”

Political observers of both parties said that scenes of Panamanians cheering American troops and denouncing Noriega while officials of the Vatican embassy were pressuring him to surrender cast the U.S. invasion--and therefore Bush--in a highly favorable light.

“The President went up against a guy everybody thinks is a scumbag and with the papal nuncio working against the guy, too, it had the imprimatur of rightness to it,” said James Lake, a Washington consultant who was a senior official in Bush’s presidential campaign. “And the Panamanians cheering the American soldiers showed the President did the right thing for the right reason.”

Although some Democrats suggested that a prolonged American occupation of Panama could cause political problems for Bush, a GOP strategist cited a party poll which showed that 77% of Americans favor keeping U.S. troops in the country “until we are sure the new government is in control even though it may be several months.” Only 14% said that the troops should be withdrawn “in a week or so.”

Former Democratic Party Chairman Robert Strauss, who opposed the invasion and who said that it may still emerge as a political issue, nonetheless declared that it is an immediate political windfall for Bush and caps “a very good first year” for him as President. Agreed former Chairman John White: “Bush is on a real high right now and there’s no question but it’s a political plus.”

Although Democratic Chairman Ron Brown said “we have to applaud (that) we played a role in restoring democracy in our hemisphere,” he cautioned that any long-term analysis “is very premature at this point.”

“Atwater grossly overstates the case,” he said. “Most responsible people have tried to assess the operation in a nonpartisan way. It’s too early to tell what the real consequences are. A lot depends on how the new government makes the transition. A lot will depend on the Noriega trial and how that proceeds.”

However, two prominent Washington-based Democratic consultants, Peter Hart, and Greg Schneiders, said that they see plenty of political gain and little or no downside for Bush.

“Americans accomplished what they needed to, and the President directed the operation and he became the beneficiary of it,” Hart said. “More than just the political gain is what it does for the President’s self-confidence. He has to feel very good about it. The sense of self-mastery he gets from it should be important as he handles other crises.”

Said Schneiders: “It’s an unquestionable gain for him.”