Soviet Threat Easing: CIA : East Bloc Defection a Severe Blow

The director of the CIA told Congress today that Eastern Europe’s tumultuous push for democracy has cut the Soviet threat to the West and that “we can probably expect a continued diminution.”

William H. Webster, in an unusual public appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that as unchallenged Communist control comes to an end in the Eastern Bloc, those nations’ links to Moscow have been radically changed.

The result, he said, is a severe blow to the Soviet Union’s certainty that Eastern Europe will respond to Moscow’s military directives.

The armed services committee is beginning work on writing a defense budget for fiscal 1991 with an assessment of the Soviet threat to the West.

“Overall, the conventional threat to the United States and our alliance partners in Europe has decreased as a result of changes in Eastern Europe and Soviet force reductions,” Webster told the panel.

The CIA director cautioned, however, that the Soviet Union is vigorously upgrading its strategic forces.

Webster cited the Soviets’ deployment last year of two new silo-based nuclear missiles, the continued deployment of SS-25 and SS-24 rail-mobile missiles and the launching of new Typhoon and Delta-IV ballistic missile submarines.

The Soviets also have made considerable gains in the anti-submarine effort, but they still “will be unable at least in this decade to threaten U.S. subs in the open ocean,” Webster said.

In what appeared to be a plea to head off budget cuts for the CIA and other intelligence agencies, Webster said the United States must maintain its intelligence capability. He pointed to the continued Soviet strategic modernization and to terrorism, illegal drugs, uncertainty in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East and weapons proliferation.

Intelligence operations are hidden in the Defense Department budget, which faces significant cuts on Capitol Hill this year. Although the exact figures are secret, U.S. intelligence reportedly spends $25 billion to $30 billion a year, just under 10% of the defense budget.

In his public statement, Webster emphasized that the situation in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union is in constant flux, with widespread economic problems, turmoil in regional areas and the Communist Party’s reduced power.

Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev is committed to reforms, but they have been slow in coming, the CIA director said. The chance of Gorbachev’s removal as Kremlin leader is unlikely, and a major reversal of his policies would come only if he is removed from power, Webster said.

Nevertheless, “we can probably expect a continued diminution--but not elimination--of Soviet threats to U.S. interests,” the CIA director said.

A question-and-answer period was held in closed session.

Lt. Gen. Harry Soyster, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, agreed with Webster, telling the committee that the threat of “deliberate aggression directed against Europe and its extension to global conflict is much reduced.”