Time to Give Ortega a Chance?

There are still two weeks of campaigning left before the people of Nicaragua vote for a new government on Feb. 25. But it’s not too early for the U.S. government to start thinking hard about what to do if the Sandinistas--whom it has tried so hard to undermine--win fair and square.

It just might happen. Only two public-opinion polls, among many taken in that country in recent months, show opposition candidate Violeta Barrios Chamorro, publisher of the newspaper La Prensa, even close to beating President Daniel Ortega, and one of those was sponsored by Chamorro’s fiercely partisan newspaper. More important, the independent observer groups commissioned by the United Nations and other international bodies to monitor the election process are reporting that so far the campaign has, by and large, been fair.

While there have been some incidents of intimidation by pro-Sandinista mobs, the government seems to be making an effort to keep its most fervent supporters under control. And what violence has been reported can be blamed not just on Sandinista mobs but on renegade bands of the U.S.-backed Contra rebels. So if Ortega wins, his critics may not be able to fault election procedures and say that his victory was tainted.

A Sandinista victory won’t go over well with those members of Congress who supported former President Reagan’s ill-advised, and ultimately futile, effort to overthrow the leftist regime in Managua. They may now be tempted to argue for isolating the Sandinistas the same way this country has bottled up Cuba since Fidel Castro took over. That would be a mistake, because as our experience with Cuba--and North Korea, for that matter--has shown, the more isolated a radical government is, the less reason it has to get along with its neighbors.

That’s why it was reassuring to hear Secretary of State James A. Baker III tell the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week that the Bush Administration is ready to normalize relations with “any government” that wins a fair election in Nicaragua. Given the mistrust that still exists in Managua because of the Contra war and the anger many in Washington still feel over Ortega’s anti-American stances, it’s too much to expect a friendship to blossom--or foreign aid to start flowing--overnight. But lifting this country’s trade embargo against Nicaragua would be a quiet and effective way to signal the Sandinistas that it’s a new day. It could be the base from which to rebuild the historically close relationship between Nicaragua and the United States.