College Kid With All His Smarts Bets 4th Choice

The College Kid had the best of two worlds. He had rich folks, and he was advised by them to get an education and a degree. Taking them up on their generosity, he happily accepted their money and immediately enrolled in a university upon graduation from high school.

During the first five years of his campus life, the College Kid switched schools three times. At each he also changed his major so that life would be enjoyable, studying would be at a minimum and classroom attendance would be necessary only so that he could get a passing grade.

Life was amazingly a happy-go-lucky affair for many years. He did manage to graduate after eight years and five schools with a degree in accounting, fulfilling his parent’s requirements.

During his years of education, the College Kid loved to play the ponies. Since he had an analytical mind and loved the action, what he tried to do was come up with a system that would give him horses that would be competitive every race and returns that were high enough to overcome his losses, thus depending on returns rather than frequency of wins.

After considering hundreds of systems, he discovered that the fourth betting choice in a race was the closest to his requirements. Although such horses were long shots, the College Kid found they were perfect for his kind of play. And here’s how he picked his horse:

The sixth race on Dec. 29, 1988, at Santa Anita was for 2-year-old maidens at seven furlongs. Nine horses were in the race that lined up like this at odds for $1:

1--Sotogrande, $119

2--Harmonic, 1.80

3--Rolling Donut, 1.10

4--Coldwindrisin, 119.80

5--Shady Pine, 9.80

6--Classy Song, 5.90

7--Pat The Tenor, 14.80

8--Babasaurus, 14.80

9--Ridge Ruler, 22.00

The favorite in the race was Rolling Donut, with Harmonic a close second in the betting. Classy Song was the public’s third choice. Next was Shady Pine at 9.80, which was the College Kid’s choice. The others, of course, were unimportant.

When Shady Pine was bumped in the early going, it fell back from second to fourth by the half-mile mark. Then the horse made its move. It engaged for the lead soon after and battled for command the rest of way. In the stretch, the nag was first by a head, being pressed by Rolling Donut, which never did get to the lead. Shady Pine ended up winning by one-half length and returned $21.60 to system backers.

Actually, betting the fourth choice is a system similar to betting the third favorite. Only the wins are fewer, and the returns are higher.

What the College Kid will tell you is that “if the odds on the fourth-choice horse begin to drop, chances are that the ‘smart money’ is riding on it. If the odds go up, as the public shovels it in on the favorites, the horse will be an overlay, which is certainly worth a bet.”

The advantage to the casual player is that the fourth choice can be defined more easily than those horses with lower odds, particularly when two, or even three, horses are being bet down as heavy favorites. Also, while the odds may fluctuate, they are sometimes high enough for a single race to establish a profit for a day’s play.

One of the more profitable days for the College Kid’s system was on Jan. 27, 1989, at Santa Anita when three nags won. After a loss in the first race, Totally Fun won the second and returned $23.80. The next four were losers and profit dipped to $11.80.

Green’s Gallery won the seventh race by a head, paying $19.40, and Prove Splendid paid $18.80 after finishing first by 2 1/4 lengths at 1 1/16 miles in the eighth. Returns for the day hit $62 and bets were $18, for a profit of $44.

For the first 40 days during the 1988-89 season at Santa Anita, bets on all 360 races totaled $720, while winners returned $730, for a $10 profit. Forty-eight nags romped home first, at a 13.3% winning pace. The highest priced pony coughed up $23.80 while the lowest return was $9.40.

After betting for 40 days and 360 races, the logical question one may ask is why invest all that time and money to win $10 for a straight $2 bet? Your bankers certainly would sneer at such a meager return. However, one can point to the local philosophers, many of whom frequently visit the tracks. “Easy come, easy go,” they will tell you.

However, the College Kid, looks at it another way, since his view is from high up on the education ladder. “Whether you win or lose, it’s better to be rich!” he says.