A Count That Counts

On April 1, Americans will be counted in the decennial census--or at least they’re supposed to be. If history is any indicator, the 1990 census will fail to count several million people, mostly members of minority groups, recent immigrants, the homeless and the very poor.

An accurate census is fundamentally important to good government. Its data will shape the U.S. House of Representatives for the 1990s. With continued population growth, California may add as many as seven new members to what is already the largest delegation in Congress. Without a complete count, especially among immigrants, the delegation might grow by fewer than seven.

The census also determines the annual distribution of more than $30 billion in federal aid to cities and counties. An undercount could cost Los Angeles several millions of dollars in federal and state funds, money that could help the city’s poor and homeless.

An undercount is most likely among minorities. In 1980, for example, the census missed an estimated 7% of the country’s Latino population and nearly 6% of the African American population. In contrast, only 1.5% of the population as a whole was missed, according to the Census Bureau.

The 1980 undercount prompted the Census Bureau to plan a post-census survey to improve accuracy, but the Reagan Administration rejected the idea. Because several cities and states--among them Los Angeles and California--sued the federal government, the post-census survey will proceed, but it will have immediate value only if the new numbers are released in time for reapportionment.

The Department of Commerce, parent agency of the Census Bureau, is expected to issue final guidelines for the adjustment next week. They must be more flexible than earlier guidelines, released in December, which called for an adjustment only if--among other disappointing standards--it wouldn’t be politically disruptive.

Can it be that Republican appointees at Commerce fear that counting every undocumented alien, homeless person or poor city-dweller will benefit urban Democrats and that making an adjustment prior to reapportionment is not in the best interest of Republicans? The answer must not be a cynical yes .

Politics aside, the Census Bureau has shown that it can make adjustments when it wants to. It has tried hard to reach undocumented aliens, for example, who are afraid to be counted. But what of families who live in garages? What about migrants who live in ditches? Or the many poor men and women who live on the streets? Admittedly, there are Americans who are hard to count. But the degree of difficulty is no excuse.

A special homeless census is planned for March 20 and 21, but some advocates for the homeless are discouraging participation, saying that an undercount is inevitable and, anyway, politicians will misuse the numbers to minimize the problem of homelessness. That’s the wrong attitude. Rather than assuming the worst, advocates for the homeless should join the many other groups prodding the Bush Administration and Congress to do what it takes to ensure a fair and precise count.