A WORLD OF IDEAS : Special International Report : In 1990, Record Numbers of Americans Will Travel Overseas. Eastern Europe, Asia and Australia Are This Year’s Hottest Destinations.

As world politics turn the tide of tourism, 1990 promises to turn into perhaps the century’s brightest travel year.

Euphoria over the end of the Cold War, together with sweeping reforms in Eastern Europe, is imbuing travelers with the desire to explore new horizons. Europe, in particular, is expecting record numbers of travelers.

Industry leaders set down these reasons for optimism:

--The breaching of the Berlin Wall.

--The call for reunification of the two Germanys.

--The weakening of communist control over Eastern Europe.

--Discussion of troop reduction between leaders in the United States and Soviet Union.

--Soviet reforms under perestroika and the spirit of glasnost .

Such events are awakening a curiosity about travel to Eastern Europe, just as travelers were anxious to explore China before the tragedy of the student-led pro-democracy movement in Tian An Men Square.

Tourism balances on a precarious scale. Until Tian An Men, China rode a wave of popularity. It receded as rapidly as it rose.

A few years earlier, to illustrate the influence of politics and terrorism on tourism, Europe’s own tourism program suffered serious losses with the hijacking of a U.S. airliner, the takeover of a passenger ship by terrorists, and murders at airports in Rome and Vienna. In late 1988 came the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.

But travelers are resilient. In 1989, Europe set tourist records, just as South America’s tourist hopes were dashed by guerrilla warfare and drug-related terrorism and assassinations in Colombia.

Although trouble spots remain, Americans will travel in record numbers this year, according to an annual sampling of travel industry experts by The Times’ Travel Section.

The forecast:

--1990 will be the year of Europe, with a new surge of interest in Eastern Europe.

--The Soviet Union’s popularity is rising as the Communist Party ends a political monopoly held since 1917.

--China’s tourism will continue to suffer.

--Travel will increase to such Asian destinations as Malaysia, Singapore, Bali, Taiwan and Japan.

--South America will experience only minimal growth.

--With new ships coming on line, there will be more people taking cruises than ever before.

--Both Australia and New Zealand anticipate major visitor increases.

--Price wars are expected among the major airlines.

With political tensions easing in Eastern Europe, serious tourism problems are surfacing. Except for rare instances, Eastern Europe is ill-prepared for mass tourism.

James V. Cammisa Jr., editor/publisher of Travel Industry Indicators, points to a lack of quality hotels, even though travel agents report record inquiries.

Don Ford, chairman of the 23-nation European Travel Commission, compares East Germany today with China when the bamboo curtain parted for the foreign traveler.

“With the exception of Budapest, Eastern Europe isn’t prepared for tourism,” Ford said. “For curiosity’s sake, travelers may make short visits, but they won’t return until tourist facilities improve.”

Visitors are expected to make day-trips into Berlin, Prague and Budapest, and afterward hurry back to the comforts of Western Europe.

Because of The Wall, Berlin, no doubt, will reap the greatest rewards of communism’s lost grip on Eastern Europe. Helmut Helas, deputy director of the German National Tourist Office in Los Angeles, says his office has been inundated with calls.

“Last year we thought we were busy,” Helas said, “but this is phenomenal. We are getting calls concerning both Germanys. Up until now, East Germany was just as closed to us (the West Germans) as to everyone else. The whole world is thrilled. This is the most exciting thing that has happened in years.”

Helas’ enthusiasm is shared by Voit Gilmore, president of the American Society of Travel Agents. “The fall of The Wall has resulted in monumental bookings to Berlin. With peace breaking out around the world and a decline in terrorism, travelers are on the move everywhere. Not just Germany, but everywhere.”

While Gilmore predicts that Western Europe will remain at the top of the heap, he’s equally optimistic about Mexico and Asia. As for Europe-bound Americans, Gilmore suggests that “prudent buyers” buy prepaid package tours due to the weakened dollar.

Those winging it independently are advised to visit small villages where accommodations and meals are reasonable.

In general, the travel industry supports Gilmore’s idea of prepaid packages: air and rail, hotels, car rentals and other related expenditures. Due to the dollar’s poor showing, Americans are finding major cities costly: London, Paris, Rome, Florence, Venice, Copenhagen, Stockholm. And, yes, Berlin.

Last year 6.8 million Americans explored Europe. With more than 7 million expected this year, 1990 will break all previous records. Economizing Americans will seek out small inns and B&Bs; in the hinterlands. This will be particularly true of Britain, the destination of 50% of Americans crossing the Atlantic.

Those choosing London (unless they are using a package tour) are discovering that apartment rentals are generally more affordable than hotels.

Susan Kaplan, president of the Southern California chapter of ASTA, is bullish on Hungary. And although she describes Eastern Europe as “the hottest spot on the Continent,” she agrees with Gilmore and Ford that Romania, Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia must improve the quality of hotels and related tourist facilities to attract the American traveler.

Eric Friedheim, publisher of Travel Agent magazine, is in concert with the others. Besides hotels, he describes a need for modern motor coaches and road repairs. “The internal transportation system of Eastern Europe is archaic. As for the hotels, they are unable to handle many more guests than they are getting presently, and new construction is limited because of the instability of the new governments.”

Friedheim makes another point. “When Americans hear of demonstrations in these newly emerging democratic regimes--even though they are peaceful demonstrations--it is an inhibiting factor.” As a result, Friedheim suggests that Americans consider putting Eastern Europe on hold. He lumps together Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and East Germany.

Paul Albrecht of Globus-Gateway says that his company’s Europe bookings are 20% ahead of 1989. At the same time, Alan Fredericks, editor in chief of Travel Weekly, told The Times: “Unless some unexpected negative event occurs, Europe will have an exceptional year.” Like others in The Times’ unofficial survey, he sees limitations for Eastern Europe due to the lack of upgraded hotels.

Meanwhile, travel to the Soviet Union grows steadily, a growth credited to the popularity of President Mikhail S. Gorbachev. Tours are filling up fast. Dozens are already sold out.

ASTA’s Kaplan speaks enthusiastically about the Soviet Union: “The Russian people want Americans. Since glasnost , people on the street are anxious to talk with Americans. It’s wonderful, the warm feeling you get.”

Brendan Tours of Van Nuys is heavily involved with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. An 18-day tour that begins in Warsaw takes in Minsk, Moscow, Leningrad, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with a return to Warsaw. It’s pegged at $1,549.

Brendan is also committed to Western Europe, with a 14-day motor-coach tour of France in peak season that’s selling for $1,078, including transportation, first-class hotels and two meals a day. The company’s top bargain: a 10-day tour of Ireland for $558.

A low-cost Cosmos package that features a 12-day motor-coach tour of Spain and Portugal, using tourist-class hotels, is priced at $498, or $543 in peak months. Similarly, Globus-Gateway is pitching a 14-day Spain/Portugal motor-coach tour with a side trip to Tangier for $808 in the off-season, $938 during peak months.

Globus-Gateway’s Albrecht points to the massacre in Tian An Men Square as the reason for the return of the Orient-bound traveler to Europe. A 19-day grand tour by Globus that takes in England, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Austria, Italy, Monaco and France sells for $1,328/$1,388.

In Los Angeles, Der Travel is putting passengers aboard charters for as little as $449 round trip to Europe. Tony Lazar of Der Travel told The Times that Der is averaging 1,500 telephone calls a day.

Der’s top seller is a seven-day tour for $930 that takes in the Passion Play at Oberammergau (a spectacle that’s staged only one summer every 10 years) in West Germany. At the same time, Der is pitching a five-day castle program for $33 a night.

“The American traveler,” says Lazar, “is shopping for values.”

Although 42 million Americans traveled abroad on business and pleasure trips in 1989, South America was low on the priority list. Reports of terrorism and drug trafficking in Colombia appear to be an inhibiting factor.

Alma Schacht of San Francisco-based Unique Adventures is concerned. “Unfortunately, travelers lump together the entire continent with Colombia.” The result, she said, was a decline in tourism by up to 40% in 1989. The picture for 1990 appears only a shade brighter.

Still, Robert Neuman of Varig Airlines is, by nature of his position, optimistic. As president of the South American Travel Assn., Neuman reports a growing interest in the Amazon, the Galapagos, the Patagonia peninsula and the ski resorts of Argentina and Chile. At the same time, South America is stirring up new interest in adventure travel.

“The image too many Americans have of South America,” said one tour operator, “is a combination of string bikinis and tango dancers--that and the drug scene in Colombia.”

“Actually, South America is a bargain,” said Schacht while describing an 18-day tour for $1,950 that includes a cruise on the Amazon and visits to Machu Picchu and Rio.

Tourism to the Pacific appears far rosier. American Airlines, Qantas, Air New Zealand, Continental and United Airlines posted an $871 round-trip fare, Los Angeles/Australia. And for a buck extra, American’s passengers are getting three nights at the Sheraton in Sydney and two nights in Honolulu. A similar offer by American applies to New Zealand passengers.

Jerry Picolla of the Pacific Asian Travel Assn. points to Europe as “our biggest competitor in 1990,” and adds that the massacre in Tian An Men Square has inhibited travel even to Hong Kong.

Travelers who scratched China are jetting off to Thailand, Singapore, Bali and Malaysia. Even high-priced Japan is reporting increased traffic. Japan was given a big boost with a new $699 air fare (Los Angeles/Tokyo) by Korean Air that includes two nights at the Holiday Inn Metropolitan in Tokyo.

Japan & Orient Tours got a surprising response to a recent seven-day LAX-Hong Kong tour for $899. Presently, though, JOT’s Tyler Tanaka sees little immediate recovery for China itself. “Americans haven’t forgiven,” he said.

Instead, they’re spreading their wings to other Asian and Pacific destinations. Bali is popular, although one tour operator accuses the Australians of turning Kuda Beach into a “honky-tonk strip with blaring music, pubs and cheap tourist shops.”

Kuda Beach, though, is but an infinitesimal blemish on an otherwise magnificent island that’s served by Garuda from Los Angeles and by Continental via Guam.

Were it not for the foreign traveler, Hawaii could well be facing a mini-crisis, in the opinion of Ed Hogan of Pleasant Hawaiian Holidays. With visits down among mainlanders, the slack is being taken up by other nations.

Vacationers from Europe, Asia and particularly Japan are filling rooms in Hawaii that might otherwise go empty. (Business from Europe is increasing so rapidly that the Hawaii Visitors Bureau has opened an office in Germany.)

Last year Pleasant Hawaiian delivered 278,000 vacationers to the islands. Hogan is less optimistic about 1990. “Airline wars will draw vacationers to other areas. Also, the Mexican government is spending millions of dollars to divert North Americans away from Hawaii.”

Hogan, though, loves a fight. “It’s exciting--and Hawaii is becoming an international mecca.”

Travel industry experts contacted by The Times also made these observations:

--Mexico forecasts a 20% jump in visitors this year, and expects to double tourism within six years. The goal: 10 million visitors annually by 1996.

--Although Canada is popular with Americans, the government anticipates only a nominal increase in vacationers this year. The reason: competition from Mexico and Europe.

--Due to a 15% hike in berths (11,000), 1990 promises to be an exciting year for the cruise industry. James Godson, president of Cruise Lines International, which represents 36 cruise lines and 20,000 travel agents, puts the target at 3.8 million passengers. Major destinations: the Caribbean, Alaska, the Mediterranean, the Bahamas and Bermuda.

--Amirrudin Abu of the Malaysian Tourist Information Center in Los Angeles announced that nearly 100 festivals will be held in his country in 1990--”The Year of Malaysia.”

--Air traffic this year on the Atlantic routes is expected to increase by 6%, due to a fleet of new jets. An 11% jump is forecast across the north Pacific. William Jackman of the Air Transport Assn. predicts lower average fares due to the “tremendous number of new airplanes joining the fleet.”

Competition on international routes is expected to result in the cheaper fares. One airline announced this promotion: “Fly now, take a friend later--free.”

--American Express reports more frequent vacations by younger travelers. Adding to the growth is the “graying society”--older persons with disposable wealth.

--Adventure travel is on the rise: safaris to Africa, trekking in Nepal, hiking in Switzerland, trips into New Guinea and Indonesia, canoeing in Borneo, and rafting, kayaking and mountaineering in South America.

Although it is an unpredictable, frequently frightening world, Americans will be traveling this year in record numbers, according to The Times’ Travel Section survey.

A happy footnote: In ’89 travel by foreigners to the United States beat out Americans going overseas for the first time. What it all adds up to is a surplus of tourist dollars. Good news for us.