Iran, Syria Spark Hopes for Freeing of 8 U.S. Hostages

After almost four years of raising false hopes about the prospects for a hostage release, Iran and Syria are sending unprecedented public and private signals that the end may be in sight for the eight Americans and up to 10 other foreigners held in Lebanon for as long as five years.

The cautious optimism within the Bush Administration was bolstered Wednesday by a statement from Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who told a news conference in Tehran, “My feeling is that the issue of the hostages is moving toward a solution.”

A source close to the hostage issue said he anticipates the first release within the next two weeks.

But some U.S. officials expressed concern about Iran’s ability to win release of all of the hostages because of obstacles among the Shiite extremist captors in Lebanon, who have their own set of demands for the release of the captives.

“I think something’s happening in Iran. But I’m not sure anything is happening in Lebanon--and that’s the tough nut to crack,” a State Department official said.

Within hours of Rafsanjani’s statement, there came an angry denial of any breakthrough from the Revolutionary Justice Organization, which claims to hold at least two Americans in Lebanon.

“There is no intention to release hostages,” it warned in a handwritten statement, accompanied by a black-and-white photo of American hostage Joseph J. Cicippio, delivered to a Beirut newspaper and a Western news agency.

The White House on Wednesday refused to speculate on hostage releases.

“We’re encouraged by the comments,” White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said of Rafsanjani’s statement. “They are in line with statements we’ve seen in recent days and weeks that there was some interest in Iran in better relations with the West.

“We hope that’s the case and that it will result in the release of the hostages, but we have no direct knowledge that is going to happen.”

Peggy Say, sister of American hostage Terry A. Anderson, said she remains optimistic. “In the past, there’s been an adrenaline rush and then terrible disappointment. Not this time. It may not happen tomorrow or next week, but in the coming weeks it has to happen.”

According to American sources involved in the hostage crisis, there has been a confluence of factors to force the Iranian government to intervene in the hostage situation. Those factors include private initiatives, pressure from regional allies and European governments, Iran’s deteriorating economy and the fast pace of events in Eastern Europe.

The Bush Administration apparently played only a limited role in the new effort.

“To be honest,” a State Department official said Wednesday, “no one over here is quite sure what is going on.”

Rafsanjani, as well as key Bush Administration officials, contend that there are no secret negotiations between the two countries. But the Iranian leader, who was implicated in the Iran-Contra arms-for-hostage swap in 1985-86, conceded that Tehran had received many messages from Washington from third parties and from visiting foreign politicians.

Hopeful signals from Tehran are instead the product of private initiatives by American and European businessmen as well as a steady stream of messages from European governments--notably West Germany--that no aid, technology or credit will be made available for Iran’s war-ravaged economy until the hostage ordeal is over.

“The mullahs (Islamic priests) finally woke up and realized all the doors were closed. No one would help them get back on their feet unless they moved on the hostage issue. As the economy continued to fall apart, they realized that the survival of their very revolution was at stake,” a source close to the private initiatives said.

“Our best guess,” added the State Department official, “is that Rafsanjani’s statement had more to do with getting economic aid from the West than with any altruistic intentions to help some Americans.”

Signs of domestic discontent are growing in Tehran. Last weekend, anti-government demonstrations reportedly erupted, largely over economic issues. Inflation is estimated at 50% and unemployment at 40%, according to the State Department. Industries are operating at only 30% of capacity due to the lack of raw materials and spare parts for aging machinery.

Iran, a country that was once self-sufficient in food, now imports $3 billion worth each year. Goods ranging from meat to gasoline are still rationed almost two years after the Persian Gulf War cease-fire.

Meanwhile, a million babies are born every seven months--one of the highest birthrates in the world.

One of the richest oil-producing nations in the world has also been forced to import large amounts of refined oil because of war damage to its refineries.

After years of paying little more than lip service to the hostage issue, Syria’s new intervention has also revived efforts at resolution.

The motive, U.S. officials said, is partly to improve relations with Washington and partly to gain access to American goods, including wheat.

Bush Administration officials acknowledge that Damascus recently promised to get more involved. Over the past two weeks, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh has held a series of high-level meetings with Iranian officials, including Rafsanjani’s brother, about freeing the hostages.

Syria’s estimated 40,000 troops in Lebanon also provide leverage with various Beirut militias.

Say, whose brother will mark his fifth anniversary in captivity onMarch 16, echoed the optimism over Syria’s new involvement after her return from Damascus this week.

“In Syria, there was no doubt left in my mind, if there is anyone who wants this ended, it’s Syria. It was a remarkable change. I even did Syrian television.”

Changes in the East Bloc have increased the urgency of finding new political allies and sources of aid in both Iran and Syria.

“Iran can no longer play the Soviet card off the Americans,” a U.S. official acknowledged. “And it has seen some of its friends in the East Bloc overthrown overnight.” Former Romanian leader Nicolae Ceausescu, for example, was on an official visit to Tehran days before he was ousted.

Syria, long the Soviet Union’s closest ally in the Middle East, has also begun to broaden its contacts with the West in the aftermath of the changes in the East Bloc and a cutback in Soviet military aid.

AMERICAN HOSTAGES Terry A. Anderson, 42, Associated Press Middle East bureau chief; abducted March 16, 1985 Thomas Sutherland, 58, agriculture dean at American University of Beirut; June 9, 1985 Frank H. Reed, 58, director of Lebanon International School; Sept. 9, 1986 Joseph J. Cicippio, 59, acting controller of American University of Beirut; Sept. 12, 1986 Edward A. Tracy, 59, book salesman; Oct. 21, 1986 Robert Polhill, 55, academic, Beirut University College; Jan. 24, 1987 Jesse Turner, 42, academic, Beirut University College; Jan. 24, 1987 Alann Steen, 50, academic, Beirut University College; Jan. 24, 1987