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U.S. Economy Up Only 1.1% Last Quarter : Business: The GNP’s October-December advance was slimmest in three years.

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From Associated Press

The U.S. economy posted a 1.1% gain from October through December, the slimmest quarterly advance in three years, helping slow the increase of goods and services to just 3% in 1989, the government said today.

The Commerce Department’s final revision of its fourth-quarter gross national product was up slightly from the 0.9% gain in its estimate last month. The department’s initial estimate in January was 0.5%.

While the improvement was modest, it was further evidence the economy can avoid an immediate recession and continue the longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history.

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The growth in the final three months of 1989 followed increases of 3.7% in the first quarter, 2.5% in the second and 3% in the third.

The 3% gain for all of 1989 was the smallest since a 2.7% advance in 1986 and followed increases of 4.4% in 1988 and 3.7% in 1987.

A consensus of economists had predicted that fourth-quarter growth would remain at 0.9%.

Many analysts, however, believe that while the pace of economic growth rose further during the current quarter, partly because of weather-related factors, it will not bounce back in 1990 to the levels experienced during much of the 1980s.

In fact, the latest consensus of top economists projects a 1.7% growth forecast for this year. That would be the poorest performance since economic activity declined 2.5% in 1982 during the last recession.

The fourth quarter’s 1.1% gain was the lowest since a 0.8% advance in the third quarter of 1986.

An inflation index tied to the GNP rose at an annual rate of 4.5% last year, the Commerce Department said, the same as its estimate last month.

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The various changes left the GNP expanding in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $4.17 trillion.

The department attributed the final revision to an increase in final sales, which offset a decrease in the amount of inventories.

The biggest drag on the economy in the fourth quarter was durable goods, which declined 14%.

Other areas of weakness included capital spending and housing construction.

Exports, on the other hand, jumped 9.4% in the fourth quarter, while imports rose just 2.2%.

In a companion report, the department said after-tax profits of U.S. corporations rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter.

Corporate profits fell during each of the other quarters of 1989--1.1% in the first, 7.2% in the second and 5.4% in the third.

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