TRIPLE CROWN FORECAST : Summer Squall Win Could Tighten the Odds

The Triple Crown chase could tighten considerably if Dogwood Stable’s Summer Squall is capable of recapturing the form with which he won all five of his 2-year-old races in Saturday’s $500,000 Jim Beam Stakes at Turfway Park and Tarascon maintains his form in Arkansas.

Summer Squall, who raced strongly in his long-delayed first start of the season two weeks ago, losing to Housebuster in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park, faces two turns and is asked to race beyond seven furlongs for the first time.

Tarascon, meanwhile, will be attempting to strengthen his pre-Derby position in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Smelly makes another stop on the back road to the Derby in the Cherry Hill Mile at Garden State Park.

Summer Squall, who injured a knee last year and bled profusely in a workout in Florida while preparing for his return, drew the rail and faces Yonder, Tight Spot and seven others in an attempt to entrench himself as the second choice to Mister Frisky, the current Derby favorite.

The Jack Van Berg-trained Tarascon, whose only loss this year was to unbeaten Mister Frisky, is the early favorite for the $100,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The Rebel, which is run at 1 1/16 miles, attracted 11 entries, including nine eligible for the Triple Crown.

Tarascon ended 1989 with a victory in the San Miguel at Santa Anita, then won a race for California-breds on Jan. 24 before finishing a length behind Mister Frisky in the 7-furlong San Vicente.

Tarascon was shipped to Oaklawn and won the mile Southwest Stakes on March 10 by a widening 12 lengths under Larry Snyder.

Afterward, Van Berg said he did not think Tarascon would have lost to Mister Frisky had he laid off the pace.

The last serious contender to come out of the Cherry Hill Mile was Spend a Buck, but Smelly may be the best to prep in New Jersey since the 1985 Derby winner.

Smelly, probably the worst-named of the Derby prospects, was a 10-length winner of the Tesio Stakes at Laurel two weeks ago and finished a narrowly beaten second to Shot Gun Scott in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his penultimate effort.

Eight others were entered in the Cherry Hill, which carries a $100,000 purse.

The Jim Beam field in post position order: Summer Squall, Pat Day; Sluki, Mike McDowell; Bright Again, Craig Perret; Yonder, Jerry Bailey; Seven Spades, Danny Cox; Power Lunch, Alex Solis; Top Snob, Dean Kutz; Fighting Fantasy, Brent Bartram; Private School, Scott Miller, and Tight Spot, Corey Black.