Vargas Llosa Leads but Faces Runoff in Peru

Novelist Mario Vargas Llosa ran far ahead in a field of nine candidates in presidential elections Sunday but failed to win an absolute majority needed to avoid a runoff vote.

Exit polls showed that Alberto Fujimori, a Japanese-Peruvian academician, rode a sudden wave of popularity to second place Sunday and a spot with Vargas Llosa on the runoff ballot.

Vargas Llosa proposed Sunday night that he and Fujimori hold talks “without conditions” and with the goal of avoiding the runoff, tentatively set for early June.

The proposal hinted that one of the candidates might drop out of the race, allowing the formation of a coalition government with the other as president. Asked if he was willing to drop out, Vargas Llosa emphasized, “I said (of the talks) without conditions, without conditions, absolutely.”

Fujimori, 51, responded by saying that he is willing to talk with Vargas Llosa, but “who will govern Peru--that is a decision that I leave to the popular verdict in a runoff.”

Significant official results from Sunday’s voting were not immediately available, but exit polls conducted for two Peruvian television networks projected Vargas Llosa in first place with 32% and 35% of the votes. They projected 24% and 28% for Fujimori.

The elections gave a moral victory to Peruvian democracy against Maoist guerrillas, who had called for a boycott. The turnout appeared to be massive in most areas despite terrorist bombings on previous days and threats by the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) rebel organization to disrupt voting.

On Saturday, police reported that guerrillas killed 17 peasants who belonged to a rural militia formed to defend the Andean village of Chupaq-Patacorral. The government says about 18,000 Peruvians have been killed in the guerrilla war during the past decade.

Police and army troops patrolled towns and cities around the nation Sunday, and no serious attacks were reported during voting hours.

The 54-year-old Vargas Llosa, a political newcomer famous for his novels, had been the front-running candidate in opinion polls since the beginning of the campaign. For months, many analysts expected him to win an absolute majority in the first round of voting.

Early in the campaign, polls had indicated that the second most-popular candidate was former Lima Mayor Alfonso Barrantes of the moderate Socialist Left party. Barrantes placed fifth in Sunday’s exit polls with 4% of the votes.

Henry Pease Garcia of the Marxist-oriented United Left, which once was Barrantes’ party, was fourth with 7%.

The two exit polls gave third place with 15% and 18% to Luis Alva Castro, a leader in President Alan Garcia’s left-leaning American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA). Garcia is barred by the constitution from a successive second term. Growing unemployment and inflation under Garcia’s administration weighed heavily on Alva Castro’s campaign.

Until a month ago, opinion polls listed Fujimori among “other candidates” at the bottom of the field. Only in March did he rise to a position by himself with 3% of the voter preferences.

Last week, however, two national polls showed Fujimori in the second position with more than 20% of the preferences, compared to less than 40% for Vargas Llosa.

Fujimori, soft-spoken and be spectacled, is a son of Japanese immigrants and a former rector of the National Agricultural University. He has never held political office, and his Cambio 90 (Change 90) party was created for the presidential campaign.

Many Peruvians call Fujimori El Chinito (The Little Chinese). Newspapers, referring to his tidal-wave surge in popularity, have nicknamed him Tsunami.

In a television interview Sunday evening, Fujimori said that if he should eventually become president, his administration would maintain political independence, would be managed by honest and competent technocrats and would concentrate on bringing new technology to Peru.

He said that he expects to attract the runoff votes of leftists and others who oppose Vargas Llosa, but he emphasized, “We are not going to make a pact with any of the political parties.”

Political analysts say that Japan’s image of efficiency and success has helped Fujimori. They say his quiet manner, simple language and agricultural expertise also make a good impression among the poor majority in this rural-based nation of 21 million people.

Many analysts contend that Peruvians see Fujimori as an alternative to professional politicians who have failed to solve the country’s problems. Although Vargas Llosa is not a professional politician, he has allied his new Liberty party with two previously established parties headed by veteran politicians.

“If he had run by himself with Liberty, he would have done better at the grass roots,” said Miguel Azcueta, a leftist member of Lima’s Metropolitan Council.

Azcueta spoke to reporters at a polling place in Villa Salvador, Lima’s biggest slum suburb. Walter Torres, a young construction worker, emerged from the polls and said he had voted for Fujimori “because he is independent.”

“We are tired of politicians,” Torres said. “We want an independent.”

“He is independent, and he says he is going to put in technology,” said Irma Contreras, 20, a nursery school teacher.

Fujimori has made few specific promises in his campaign. He has spoken in favor of free enterprise and foreign investment, but he has indicated that he would take gradual measures against Peru’s runaway inflation.

Vargas Llosa has promised a “shock treatment” to reduce the inflation, which soared to 2,700% last year. He promised to sell off more than 200 government-owned enterprises and reduce public payrolls by thousands of workers.

In a country where most people already are unemployed or underemployed and where the economy has shrunk by 20% in the past two years, those kinds of austerity measures raise fears among many workers.

But carpenter Percy Valencia, 32, a voter at Villa Salvador, said Vargas Llosa’s plan for putting the economy in order is the only way out of the crisis.

“He is going to bring the best for Peru,” Valencia said. “Jobs, investment, free education. He is the only hope we Peruvians have.”

From mid-1985 to mid-1987, the first two years of President Garcia’s administration, the Peruvian economy grew rapidly. But inflation escaped the government’s control and the economy soon began to contract.