CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS 78th ASSEMBLY DISTRICT : Partisans ‘Spin’ Analyses of Upset Primary Vote Result

The day after Republican Jeff Marston’s upset first-place finish in the special 78th Assembly District primary, his backers and those of his Democratic rival quickly turned their attention to June’s runoff, casting one more subjective glance backward to chart their path.

If Tuesday was the day for voters to speak in the race for the Assembly seat vacated by Democrat Lucy Killea’s election to the state Senate last December, then Wednesday clearly belonged to the candidates’ “spin” experts, who sought to sell dramatically different interpretations of the primary--analyses that, in each case, reflect most favorably on their chances in June.

That task was admittedly more difficult for Democrat Mike Gotch, the former San Diego city councilman who was forced to try to put the best possible face on his second-place finish in a campaign that many of his closest backers thought he could win outright in the primary.

Noting that the Democratic vote was divided among four candidates Tuesday, while Marston was the only active Republican in the primary, Gotch partisans--offering their preferred “spin” on the story--confidently predict that they will reverse the finish order June 5.

“I wouldn’t call it an upset,” Evonne Schulze, Gotch’s campaign coordinator, said of the primary result. “We did very well, considering that there were four Democrats running, while the Republicans pulled behind one candidate. If all the Democrats had united behind Mike, there wouldn’t even be a June runoff.”

Dismissing such arguments as mere what-if speculation, Marston preferred to bill his finish in the six-candidate race as a major upset that significantly shifts momentum in his direction as the runoff campaign begins.

“I look upon it as a victory for me and, at the same time, something of a repudiation of Mike,” said Marston, a former aide to San Diego City Councilwoman Gloria McColl and Sen. S.I. Hayakawa (R-Calif.). “Most of the people in this district know Mike’s name and had a chance to vote for him Tuesday. The fact that so many didn’t do that is significant.”

Unofficial vote totals showed that Marston, who benefited from the withdrawal of his only two GOP rivals late in the campaign, received 13,073 votes (35.9%), far short of the 50%-plus victory needed for outright victory in the primary. Gotch, who began the race as a prohibitive favorite, qualified for the runoff by finishing second with 10,781 votes (29.6%), comfortably ahead of the 15.5% total of his nearest Democratic rival, lawyer Howard Wayne. About 1,000 votes, most of them absentee ballots turned in at the polls, will not be counted until today.

By virtue of the unorthodox rules governing special elections, Peace and Freedom Party member Jane Rocio Evans also will be on the June runoff ballot, despite drawing only 809 votes (2.2%) Tuesday. However, Evans--who qualified for the June ballot simply because she was her party’s only primary candidate--is expected to be little more than a political footnote in the runoff.

As Marston and Gotch shifted their perspective to June, the two competing campaigns devoted much of Wednesday to the kind of point-counterpoint debate--one that blends detached analysis with wishful thinking--that frequently occurs the day after elections. Indeed, for virtually every theory that one side offered about either the primary’s outcome or the prospects for the runoff, the other campaign was ready with a counter-argument.

For example, if Marston wanted to savor his first-place finish as a possible harbinger of the June runoff, Gotch’s aides were quick to note that, overall, Democratic candidates received nearly 55% of the primary vote--more than 1 1/2 times Marston’s total.

“If we had finished second, and more Republicans than Democrats had voted, then I’d be worried,” said Gotch consultant Bob Glaser. “But this was a strong Democratic turnout, and that’s an encouraging sign for June.”

Similarly, although Gotch is counting on partisan loyalties to attract that Democratic support in June, Marston contends that many of the other Democrats’ votes stemmed from an anti-Gotch sentiment that he can tap into in the runoff.

“We certainly aren’t conceding those or any other votes,” said Marston consultant Sara Katz. “This is a district where voters are more issue-driven than driven by whether there’s an ‘R’ or a ‘D’ after the name. Besides, a lot of those votes were cast by Democrats who obviously didn’t think much of Mike Gotch.”

Though Democrats have held the 78th District seat since 1972, the party holds only a slim 45%-41% registration edge there--making it the most heavily Republican Assembly district in the state represented by a Democrat during Killea’s four terms. Combined with Marston’s showing Tuesday, the Mid-City district’s demographics create the potential for perhaps the most competitive election there since Democrat Larry Kapiloff, now a Superior Court judge, upset Republican Assemblyman E. Richard Barnes 18 years ago.

While their predictions differ, for obvious reasons, the two sides agree that the runoff hinges largely on where the supporters of Wayne and the other also-rans turn in June.

Wayne, who endorsed Gotch Wednesday, said he believes the two Democrats’ partisan and ideological similarities will give Gotch an advantage over Marston in going after Wayne’s supporters.

“Mike stands for most of the things I stand for, and I’m going to do everything I can to make sure my supporters know that,” Wayne said. “I suppose some of my votes may have been a protest against Mike. But those anti-votes had so many places to go, I’m not sure it counted for much of mine.”

Throughout the primary, Wayne sharply criticized Gotch, particularly over the former two-term councilman’s vote for the controversial Belmont Park development in Mission Beach. Seeking to put those disagreements behind, Wayne added: “On most of the big things, Mike’s vision is closer to my own. What it comes down to is, I think the district would be better served with him in the Legislature.”

Gotch’s strategists also are heartened by the fact that dramatically different dynamics will be at work in June than were evident in Tuesday’s special primary. With the Assembly race being the only issue on the 78th District ballot Tuesday, voter turnout was only about 21.8%--much lower than is expected in the normal statewide June primary.

In addition, the contested Democratic gubernatorial primary between former San Francisco Mayor Diane Feinstein and Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp could enhance Gotch’s candidacy by boosting Democratic turnout in June. In contrast, former San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson is the presumptive GOP gubernatorial nominee, lessening Republicans’ incentive to go to the polls.

“That’s a factor we’ll have to deal with,” Marston conceded. “The only way to do that is to work harder to get out Republicans and to appeal to Democrats. Obviously, we’re not going to win without Democratic votes.”

Tuesday’s inconclusive primary set the stage for a potentially confusing “double election” in June--a political rarity as intriguing as it is perplexing.

On the same June ballot on which Gotch and Marston will compete in the special runoff for the six months remaining in Killea’s unexpired term, they also will be seeking their respective parties’ primary nominations for the two-year term at stake in November. Moreover, the losers from Tuesday’s special primary also will appear on the normal June primary ballots--because, election officials say, it is too late for their names to be removed.

“We’d love to get (the losers) off the ballot, because it’s silly and confusing to have the names of people not really running on it,” San Diego County Registrar of Voters Conny McCormack said. “But there’s nothing we can do about it.”

As a result, there is a remote chance that the victor of the special runoff could simultaneously lose his party’s normal primary. Expressing a common concern, Gotch aide Schulze suggested that confused voters might inaccurately conclude that they must vote for different candidates in the two separate races.

Though such a split decision seems doubtful, a more realistic possibility is that the winner of June’s special runoff could be unseated in November--by the candidate whom he defeated five months earlier.

“Nobody wants to be the assemblyman for only six months,” Marston said. “But the reality is that that’s all you really win in June. It’s only round one. It’s a very important first round. But there’s another big one waiting in November.”