Bush Tells Fears on Baltic States : Secession: He spurns plea by ethnic Americans to take stronger action. The President invokes the memory of the bloody Soviet crackdown in Hungary in 1956.

President Bush raised the image of the bloody Soviet crackdown in Hungary three decades ago as he told leaders of Baltic-American ethnic groups Wednesday that he cannot do more to back independence movements in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

As if to underscore Bush’s fears, Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev warned in broadcast remarks Wednesday that secession movements within the Soviet Union could lead to “such bloody carnage that we won’t be able to crawl out of it.”

During a 70-minute meeting with ethnic group leaders, Bush repeatedly cited Hungary’s 1956 uprising, when the Dwight D. Eisenhower Administration encouraged a revolt against Soviet domination, only to stand by powerless when the Soviet army rolled in and killed thousands of people.

“He is very, very worried about what happened in Hungary. He remembers it very clearly,” said Mari-Ann Rikken of the Joint Baltic-American National Committee. “He wants to find a way out . . . that will not result in a cataclysm for the Soviet Union and that will not result in a blood bath.”

Meanwhile, in a televised question-and-answer session with a congress of young Communists, Gorbachev warned that a blood bath is exactly what the independence movements in the Baltics could lead to, wire services reported.

Given the more than 100 different ethnic groups in the Soviet Union, many of them with strong nationalist sentiments, any move to redraw boundaries “would pit all peoples and all nations against each other and bring about a situation in this society the likes of which has never been witnessed by our country or by the world,” Gorbachev said.

Advocates of independence for the Baltics argue they are a special case because, unlike other parts of the Soviet Union, the three republics were independent nations until they were annexed in World War II. But Gorbachev has insisted that a move by any one republic to secede could unravel the entire Soviet fabric.

“If we begin to divide up, I’ll give it to you bluntly. We’ll end up in such a civil war, in such bloody carnage that we won’t be able to crawl out of it,” he told the young Communist gathering.

Gorbachev has made predictions of disaster before, but the latest remarks were among his most pointed on the secession crisis that bedevils the Kremlin leadership.

The forces threatening to pull the Soviet Union apart have seemed to gain strength steadily all year. Lithuania declared independence more than a month ago, and nationalists in Estonia and Latvia have been pushing to follow suit. In addition, Moscow earlier this year had to call in the army to put down fighting in the southern republics of Azerbaijan and Armenia. And in recent days, officials have confronted nationalist demonstrations in Georgia and a strengthened independence movement in the vital western republic of the Ukraine.

Leaders in both Moscow and Washington have been eager to avoid bloodshed in Lithuania, fearing that violence there would stop progress across the entire spectrum of East-West relations. Already, hard-liners within the Bush Administration have been citing Lithuania as an argument against quickly reducing U.S. troop strength in Europe or the overall size of the U.S. defense budget.

The President has taken a characteristically cautious line. And the account of his remarks in Wednesday’s meeting, confirmed by White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater, provides the best glimpse so far of his reasons.

Bush is under pressure from Lithuanian President Vytautas Landsbergis and from conservatives at home to take a strong stand in favor of independence for the Baltics, which the United States has supported, in theory, since the annexation by the Stalin regime in 1940.

But, as he told his visitors, Bush fears that strong rhetoric from Washington could spur pro-independence forces in the three republics to move too far, too fast and bring about what Fitzwater called “a situation that would create the use of force.”

The result of those conflicting pressures has been a delicate diplomatic dance. On the one hand, the Administration has warned the Soviet leadership against using force to end the independence movement. On the other, Bush has refused to recognize the pro-independence government in Lithuania, and his aides generally have refused to comment on specific Soviet moves.

The 14 representatives of Lithuanian-, Latvian- and Estonian-American groups asked Bush to take a far higher profile and begin “interim steps” short of actual diplomatic recognition that could strengthen the Lithuanian claim to be a legitimate government. They left, however, with little to show from their session with the President and his top advisers, including Secretary of State James A. Baker III and National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft.

“We believe that our present position is the correct one, and the President did not indicate that we are willing to change,” said Fitzwater.

“We are disappointed with the official policy of the United States,” said Anthony B. Mazeika, a real estate agent from Mission Viejo, Calif., who serves as director of the Baltic American Freedom League. He added that he believes that if the United States had made a statement of support for the new Lithuanian government after it declared independence, “I think Mr. Gorbachev would have been a lot more resilient and supportive of this process.”

In addition to refusing any moves toward recognition of the Lithuanian government, the Administration also continues to support the idea of referenda on secession in each of the three Baltic republics. The Baltic-American groups, in a letter presented to Bush, opposed that idea. Pro-independence groups, particularly in Latvia and Estonia, fear that large numbers of ethnic Russians who have moved to the Baltic lands since the Soviet takeover could vote down independence if a referendum were held.

Gorbachev, in his remarks, predicted that even the Lithuanians, who overwhelmingly supported pro-independence candidates in elections earlier this year, would reject secession if it were put to a vote. Once voters realize the economic and political problems secession will bring, he said, they would realize Lithuania “needs independence, but within the framework” of the Soviet Union.

Although the Baltic-American groups made no concrete progress, their officials said they were pleased that after months of trying, they at least had succeeded in holding a meeting with Bush.

Many of the ethnic organizations represented in the Oval Office meeting are strongly anti-Communist and have had long ties with the Republican Party. “We used to wear out the threshold of the previous Administration,” said Rikken, the spokeswoman of the the Joint Baltic-American National Committee.

The decision to hold the meeting now comes at a time when Bush and his aides have been toughening their rhetoric on the Baltic situation, warning that Soviet actions in Lithuania could put U.S.-Soviet relations “at risk.”

But the rhetoric has not, so far, been matched by any specifics. While the Administration has warned that “very serious adverse consequences” to U.S.-Soviet relations would result from a Soviet crackdown in Lithuania, State Department spokeswoman Margaret Tutwiler repeated Wednesday that officials have never spelled out to the Soviets what those consequences might be.

For the United States to be too specific on the subject would be foolish, Tutwiler said, adding: “Let them gamble and see what happens.”

Times staff writer Norman Kempster contributed to this report.