THE WORLD CUP : Experts Believe U.S. Chances Are Bleak : Soccer: Survey shows only three of 18 think Americans will beat Czechs. No one is willing to predict a U.S. victory over Italy in Rome.

Three weeks from now, on June 10 to be exact, the moment of truth will arrive. After a 40-year hiatus, the United States will be playing in the World Cup soccer tournament.

If a nationwide survey of coaches, players and officials, is any indication, the Americans are not going to be staying in Italy for long. An early exit from soccer’s quadrennial championship is predicted by virtually everyone interviewed.

The survey, to be published in Soccer International magazine’s June World Cup issue, suggests that the U.S. team has little to no chance of defeating any of its first-round opponents--Czechoslovakia, Italy and Austria.

Of the 18 soccer experts interviewed by the magazine, only three figure there is any chance of a U.S. victory over the Czechs in Florence on June 10; no one predicts an American win over the Italians in Rome on June 14, and just three believe that the Austrians can be beaten on June 19 in Florence.

In other words, it will be arrivederci, Italia , for Coach Bob Gansler and his U.S. squad by June 20.

“We must realize that the United States has already achieved success by making it to the finals,” said Gordon Jago, president of the Major Indoor Soccer League’s Dallas Sidekicks. “Any future achievement is a bonus. This is a learning experience for our boys. They should not be expected to go beyond the first round--they’ll probably play better without that pressure.”

The 24 countries that have reached the tournament are divided into six groups of four teams each. After round-robin play, the top two teams from each group advance, along with the four third-place teams with the best records.

“We won’t be quite good enough to go through to the second round, but I don’t see us getting embarrassed,” said Terry Fisher, former coach of the Los Angeles Aztecs and now general manager of the San Francisco Blackhawks of the American Professional Soccer League. “We can defend well enough to keep the scores down. We’ll be competitive.”

Fisher’s view is shared by most of those surveyed. No one saw the United States losing any of its matches by more than three goals, and more than half believe the team is capable of gaining at least one tie.

“The key in showing how well the U.S. will perform is the first game, against Czechoslovakia,” said Clive Toye, former president of the North American Soccer League and now chairman of the APSL but perhaps best known as the man who brought Pele to the United States in 1975. “That will set the tone.

“I hope the U.S. will go out with dignity. It will be performing on a stage many levels higher than it has stepped on before.”

The Americans’ opening match will be the first in World Cup play for a U.S. team since July 2, 1950, when the United States was beaten by Chile, 5-2.

That alone is a daunting statistic, but Ty Keough, a former U.S. national team player and now coach of Washington University in St. Louis and a television soccer commentator, thinks the Americans can cope.

“I believe the opener against Czechoslovakia may be our best performance,” Keough said. “Our guys will be up for the game and may surprise the Czechs with our level of play.”

Lenny Roitman, coach of Brooklyn College in New York and an assistant coach on the U.S. team during part of the early qualifying rounds for Italy, believes the same thing, but for a different reason.

“The political turmoil in Eastern Europe will have a negative effect on teams from that region,” Roitman told Soccer International. “Those players have more important problems on their minds than just soccer.”

Of those interviewed, 11 predicted an American loss to Czechoslovakia, three said the match will end in a tie and three, rather optimistically, said the United States would win.

“I’d like to show faith in the team--make our guys feel better,” explained Harry Keough, Ty’s father and a member of the last American team to win a World Cup game--on June 29, 1950, over England.

The match against the Italians at Rome’s Olympic Stadium is an altogether different story. If there is any chance of the United States being thrashed in the tournament, this is it. Italy, a World Cup winner in 1934, ’38 and ‘82, has players who are light-years ahead of the Americans in skill and experience.

“Our players have the athletic ability to stay with the best players in the world, but not to match their level of soccer knowledge, both in technique and tactics,” said John Kerr, director of the players’ association since 1977 and coach of the APSL’s Washington Stars.

Another view is that of Julio Mazzei, former coach of the New York Cosmos and manager of Pele’s business office in New York.

“I think the Italians are going to be overconfident,” Mazzei said. “Playing at home will put them under a lot of pressure from their own fans if they don’t score in the first 20 minutes against the United States, a team that is not supposed to be very good.

“If the U.S. defense doesn’t react badly, there can be an interesting result. Remember, Italy is not the best team in the World Cup, offensively.”

Still, the survey showed 14 of those interviewed predicting a U.S. loss and three foreseeing a tie. No one had the United States winning.

However, against Austria, in what the experts believe will be the Americans’ final game, only nine of those surveyed said the United States will lose, five predicted a tie and three, including UCLA soccer Coach Sigi Schmid, figured victory is possible.

“It’s both a hope and a prediction,” Schmid said. “I believe Austria and the United States will still be in contention to go on to the next round. Don’t forget that four third-place teams will move up.

“That means Austria may take risks in going forward and give us opportunities to counterattack successfully. Bob Gansler showed he could develop a team with a strong counterattacking game when he coached the U.S. under-20s (to a surprising fourth-place finish) in the 1989 World Youth Cup in Saudi Arabia.”

Whether the United States will show any offensive ability at all is debatable. Roitman, for instance, said the United States would match Canada’s feat of four years ago and fail to score a goal in the World Cup.

“I still do not see a single U.S. player who is capable of scoring consistently on that level of play,” he said.

Several coaches blame Gansler for the team’s inability to score against all but the weakest opponents.

“You are seeing players who are an extension of Bob Gansler’s personality--defensively oriented, conservative, more concerned with not making mistakes instead of thinking about attacking,” said Angus McAlpine, former coach of the U.S. under-16 and under-20 national teams. “They play a counterattacking game, which is basically a conservative game.

“I believe soccer should be entertaining, and that means attacking. A team should be loaded with artists, not just technicians. The attacking part of the (American) game is not being developed.

“I’m disappointed in the lack of offensive commitment, flair and imagination in the team as a whole.”

Steve Sampson, 1989 college coach of the year at Santa Clara, the NCAA co-champion, said: “You can’t come away thinking we’re going to score or get beyond the first round when the emphasis is on the defensive side of the game. We need more of an offensive scheme. We must take risks and score.

“I believe the majority of our players are not being allowed to go forward in numbers. This results in lack of offensive movement off the ball and lack of support.

“My opinion is that this World Cup should be viewed as preparation for 1994 (when the United States will play host to the tournament). Don’t be concerned with keeping the score down or with losing. The American public will react more positively to an aggressive and well played 4-2 loss than a boring 1-0 defensive loss.”

Ron Newman, coach of the MISL’s San Diego Sockers and the most successful coach in U.S. soccer history, indoors and outdoors, agrees.

“I’m a little critical of the way the team has been prepared,” Newman said. “The level of intensity in its play isn’t enough. I think a good part of the problem is that there is a letdown after international exhibitions. There’s nothing to keep our players sharp day after day.

“Foreign players go back to a tough professional league. Our guys go back, if anything, to playing in college or in the park or some local league. It’s just not the same.

“If I was coaching (the national team), I would have encouraged American players to play in Europe instead of depending on exhibitions.”

Still, as Toye suggests, after having to wait 40 years between World Cup appearances, not too much should be expected of the Americans.

“The most important part is that we qualified,” he said. “This team is going to be setting a standard for all future teams to improve upon. This is the best U.S. team in recent decades, and the worst team we’re going to have in looking toward the future.”

That future means 1994, said Rodney Marsh, coach and general manager of the APSL’s Tampa Bay Rowdies.

“I don’t think the games will have much impact on American soccer at this time because we aren’t going very far--in fact, not beyond the first round.” Marsh said. “The real impact of the World Cup will come in 1994--it will be staggering.”