HEAD THE TIMES POLL : Soviet Citizens Worry About United Germany

When Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev sits down to begin negotiations with President Bush today he will be representing Soviet citizens who now regard the United States as only a small threat but are very nervous about Germany’s unification, The Los Angeles Times Poll found.

The Soviet people emphatically back Gorbachev’s insistence, expected to be reiterated in the summit talks, that the new Germany not be a military partner of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

But perhaps complicating his posture on another sensitive summit topic, the Soviet leader seems slightly out of step with his own people regarding secession efforts by the three Baltic republics, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Soviet citizens tend to be more tolerant than the Kremlin of the drive for independence.

At the same time, the survey of Soviet citizens found a strong undercurrent of restiveness about Gorbachev’s domestic programs, even though the people do have a high personal regard for their leader.

Nine in 10 of those interviewed said there are “major difficulties” with perestroika, Gorbachev’s reform program. And these were their answers before last week’s frantic buying spree that was sparked by the government’s announcement that, as part of its efforts to introduce a market economy, it intends to sharply raise consumer prices.

While Soviet citizens were being interviewed, The Times Poll also was surveying Americans for their opinions on the same questions.

Americans tend to see the Soviet Union as more of a military threat than the Soviet people do the United States, the poll found. But, somewhat paradoxically, they also have a rosier view of current U.S.-Soviet relations.

In contrast with the Soviet people, not surprisingly, most Americans agree with the Bush Administration that a unified Germany should be a full member of NATO.

Questions for the surveys in both countries were written by The Times Poll. In the Soviet Union, door-to-door interviews of 1,485 people were conducted May 9-24 by the Soviet Academy of Sciences in Moscow. Those interviewed were selected randomly from the complete list of internal “passport” holders. All Soviet citizens age 16 and older are required to carry these passports as identification papers.

In the United States, The Times Poll interviewed 2,144 Americans by telephone from May 10-14. The phone numbers were randomly selected by computer.

The margin of error for both surveys is three percentage points in either direction.

The University of Houston cooperated in the project.

“We conducted the poll because we thought it would be interesting to find out what the Soviet people think about events in their own country and in the world,” Times Poll Director I.A. Lewis said. “And until now we haven’t had an opportunity to find out. It was difficult technically and, more importantly, it was impossible politically before glasnost. “

Even with glasnost, the policy of openness instituted by Gorbachev, the majority of Soviet citizens who were interviewed acknowledged that “some might want to be careful about how they respond” to the poll questions. Less than a third said that people would “feel perfectly free to express their personal opinions.”

Americans were a lot more cynical about the degree of Soviet candor. Nine in 10 felt the Soviet respondents would answer the poll questions cautiously.

But it was clear from the interviews on each side that citizens of both the United States and the Soviet Union no longer regard the other nation as their mortal enemy. Two-thirds of Americans now believe the two military superpowers are “friendly.” So do a majority of Soviet citizens. This represents a big turnaround for Americans since Gorbachev first took power five years ago, when only a quarter of U.S. citizens thought the two nations were friendly.

Neither Americans nor Soviet citizens are yet willing to believe that the Cold War is history. Roughly half the people in each country think it continues. Still, four in 10 Soviet citizens believe that the United States “wants to live peacefully with the rest of the world” and a majority of Americans think the same of the Soviet Union.

Two-thirds of the Soviet people regard the United States as only a “small threat” militarily, and a majority of Americans feel the same about the Soviet Union. But U.S. fears appear to run deeper, as those Americans who feel that the other nation represents “a large threat” outnumber by 2 1/2 times those in the Soviet Union who feel that way about the United States.

A bigger concern now in the Soviet Union seems to be what will happen to Europe after West and East Germany unify. In fighting Germany’s Nazi regime in World War II, 27 million Soviet citizens died. And although half the Soviets interviewed in this survey favor German unification, about that many also said they “would be worried” if the new Germany became “the dominant power in Europe.”

Among those Soviets who would worry about a dominant Germany, the vast majority said they would fear the new German state’s “trying to expand its territory again” and its economy becoming “too strong.” But most of all--and 83% cited this--they would worry about “a revival of Nazism.”

Americans expressed similar concerns, although more people--two-thirds--favored German unification. And only a third said they would worry about the new Germany becoming Europe’s “dominant power.”

Three-fourths of the Soviet citizens want a unified Germany to be militarily neutral, according to The Times survey. Only one in 20 favor its joining the NATO military alliance, a response that represents strong support for Gorbachev’s position. In the United States, Bush’s opposite position that the new Germany should be a full NATO member is backed by a majority of people. Less than a third believe it should be neutral.

Soviet citizens are not concerned generally about the breakup of the Soviet Bloc in Eastern Europe, the survey indicated. Two-thirds said it is “good that the Eastern European countries have now become independent.”

And as far as the Baltic republics are concerned, people in the Soviet Union agree by 4 to 3 that they should be “allowed to leave the Soviet Union.” This puts a significant proportion of Soviet citizens at odds with Gorbachev, who has been resisting the independence drives, at least on any terms other than those laid out in the Soviet constitution.

Among the Soviet citizens who approve of secession, the dominant feeling is that the republics should be allowed to break away if their citizens vote to leave. In that case, the new autonomous states should be responsible for conducting their own foreign policy and providing for their own defense, those surveyed said. But they also should “satisfy (the) economic demands” from Moscow for repayment of capital investments resulting from their membership in the Soviet Union, the people said.

Among the Soviet citizens who oppose allowing the republics to secede at will, the thought is that negotiations should be held with Moscow “until a decision is reached.” But even these people object to applying “economic pressure” on an independence-minded republic, as Gorbachev has done to Lithuania. And three-fourths disagree with the notion of “using military force to keep a republic from leaving the U.S.S.R.”

But Soviet citizens also feel a good deal of nationalistic pride about this issue: They basically believe that the republics are their business--and not the United States’. By 3 to 2, they say that Bush’s warnings to Gorbachev about the dire consequences to U.S.-Soviet relations of using military force in Lithuania amounts to “unjustified meddling in the Soviet Union’s internal affairs” rather than “the justified concern of a democratic country for the rights of the Lithuanian people.”

And the American people also seem to be sensitive to this attitude. When asked whether Bush “should speak out in favor of Lithuania . . . even if it might damage relations with the Soviet Union” or whether the President “should continue to maintain good relations with the Soviet Union even if (it) might indicate less support for the people of Lithuania,” by 3 to 2 they vote for keeping on good terms with Moscow.

Overall, Soviet citizens approve of Gorbachev’s handling of the Lithuania situation by 3 to 2. And Americans approve of Bush’s handling of it by 2 to 1.

American and Soviet citizens generally have about the same regard for their own leaders. Roughly 7 in 10 in each country approve of the way their presidents are handling their jobs.

In the Soviet Union, both Gorbachev and Bush elicit favorable impressions from two-thirds of the people. In the United States, Americans have a slightly higher impression of Bush than Gorbachev, but both men are very highly regarded.

The majority of Americans have no opinion about whether the summit will be a success or failure. But two-thirds of the Soviet citizens are confident it will be successful.

Americans and Soviets View the Summit Recently, The Times surveyed 1,485 Soviets living in European Russia and asked several questions regarding the Washington summit. In addition 2,144 Americans were asked the same questions. The survey occurred between May 9-24. Asked in the United States: How would you describe the relationship between the Soviet Union and the United States? Allies: 3% Unfriendly: 22% Friendly: 68% Enemies: 3% Don’t Know: 4% Asked in the Soviet Union: How would you describe the relationship between the Soviet Union and the United States? Allies: 4% Unfriendly: 36% Friendly: 53% Enemies: 1% Don’t Know: 6% Asked in the United States: On balance, would you prefer to see a reunified Germany as part of NATO, or outside NATO as a neutral country, or what? NATO: 52% Neutral: 29% Other: 1% Don’t know: 18% Asked in the Soviet Union: On balance, would you prefer to see a reunified Germany as part of NATO, or outside NATO as a neutral country, or what? NATO: 5% Neutral: 73% Don’t know: 22%