Big Loser Is Kim’s Repressive Regime

A few days ago a clearly stunned North Korean government expressed incredulity at the prospect of a meeting between the leaders of South Korea, its hated rival, and the Soviet Union, its most important international patron. Now, Presidents Roh Tae Woo and Mikhail S. Gorbachev having indeed met in San Francisco, the Pyongyang regime likely finds itself in a state of political shock.

For what Gorbachev and Roh agreed is that Seoul and Moscow would work to resume the diplomatic ties they last had in the early years of this century, before either the Soviet Union or the Republic of Korea had come into existence. Meanwhile, they will expand their economic, trade and cultural relations. From a conversation in San Francisco lasting only about an hour has come yet another milestone in this era of remarkable international change.

The historic significance of the Roh-Gorbachev agreement lies in the fact that the Soviet Union was, quite literally, the creator of the North Korean Communist state that to this day actively menaces its southern neighbor.

The division of the Korean peninsula at the 38th Parallel was a tragic and unintended consequence of the Allied victory in World War II, the almost-casual result of an administrative decision that the Red Army should accept the surrender of Japanese forces in northern Korea. Once there, though, the Soviets refused to get out, withdrawing only after they had cemented in power the Stalinist Kim Il Sung, whose dictatorship goes on. The costly three-year war that Kim launched against the south in 1950 was fully supported by Moscow.

For Seoul, improved ties with Moscow can only work further to isolate Kim’s repressive and increasingly friendless regime. For Moscow, the major appeal is a chance to benefit from South Korea’s burgeoning economic development and expertise. The Soviets are eager for Korean help, especially in joint ventures to develop Siberia. In recent years, trade between the two countries has expanded markedly, from $600 million last year to an expected $1 billion this year. South Korea could provide much of the high-quality, low-cost consumer goods the Soviets desperately want.

It’s too early to assess the full implications of closer Seoul-Moscow ties. Plainly, they could reach far. For example China, which already does billions in trade with South Korea, is also eager to attract Korean investors. Beijing may now feel compelled to pursue its own closer ties with Seoul. Peace isn’t about to break out on the Korean peninsula; the demilitarized zone between north and south remains the world’s most heavily fortified border. But the regional political rearrangements now under way can only work in time to erode that barrier.