ELECTIONS : 38TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT : Some Don’t See Boland Election as a Sure Thing

Paula Boland’s victory in the contentious Republican primary in the 38th Assembly District strengthened her status as the front-runner, but she does not yet have an assured win in November, some political observers said Wednesday.

Taking no chances, Boland launched her general election campaign against the Democratic winner, Irene Allert, on Wednesday morning, only hours after defeating four Republican rivals.

“She’s out amongst them,” said Boland’s husband, Lloyd, from the real estate office they run together in Granada Hills. “We take nothing for granted.”

Allert, 45, of Kagel Canyon, who supports abortion rights and opposes the proposed Porter Ranch development, said Wednesday that she will push those themes in her campaign in the upscale west San Fernando Valley district.

During the primary, longtime Republican activist Boland, 50, raised twice as much money as chief challenger Rob Wilcox, 24, an aide to retiring Assemblywoman Marian W. La Follette (R-Northridge).

When the vote was in, Boland had won 42% to Wilcox’s 33%.

Allert “is articulate and intelligent and will make a good candidate,” Wilcox said. “However, this is Paula’s district and Paula will win easily.”

However, Bruce Whidden, district chief of staff to La Follette, disagreed that a Boland victory over Allert is a certainty.

“If the Democratic leadership wanted to put money in that race, she’s the candidate I’d put my money on,” he said.

He cited a demographic study conducted for La Follette in January that found voters in the district to be affluent, highly educated and professional, with loyalties to some Republicans but a streak of independence based on issues such as growth, the environment and abortion.

When asked, “Do you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice?” more than 63% of the voters favored abortion rights and 27% said they opposed abortion.

Boland opposes abortion; Allert favors abortion rights.

Boland has refused to take a stand on the hotly debated Porter Ranch development; Allert says it will be too big and too costly.

Allert said the survey shows that “I fit the profile of the district better than Paula.”

Allert’s challenger in the primary, environmentalist Gary Crandall, predicted a close race in spite of district voter registration that favors Republicans, 88,000 to 75,000.

“I don’t think Boland is particularly--how would one say--intellectually evolved,” Crandall said. “She has this sort of wispy voice and she rambles on about little sentimental things and doesn’t address issues much.”

Political consultant Paul Clarke--whose wife, former Republican Rep. Bobbi Fiedler, backed Boland in the primary--said the race will be “a major yawn” because such factors as campaign styles and abortion opinions don’t matter when Republicans have a registration edge.

Clarke, a spokesman for Porter Ranch, added that attacks on candidates who have not come out against the development, including Boland, were not effective in the primary.

He noted that Boland raised $112,000, contrasted with Wilcox’s $56,000 and Allert’s $12,000.

“People know her and people trust her,” said Boland’s campaign manager, Carlos Rodriguez.

Allert cannot hope for similar generosity if she seeks money strictly from the Republican district, said Dick Rosengarten, publisher of Calpeek, a weekly political newsletter.

For more campaign money, she will have to turn to Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, who can channel extra funds to Democratic candidates he favors, Rosengarten said.

“The question is, can she get Willie Brown to help her put some money together? If she can, she’s got a chance. If she can’t . . . it’s a kiss-off,” he said.