Final Peru Polls Show Marked Decline in Fujimori’s Support

National opinion polls released Friday showed independent Alberto Fujimori’s lead over novelist Mario Vargas Llosa narrowing so steadily that Sunday’s presidential election has become too close to call.

Two of three polls showed Fujimori ahead, while a third showed Vargas Llosa overtaking his rival and ahead by a tiny margin in the two-man runoff ballot.

The final polls, which by law may not be disclosed in Peru, showed a dramatic decline in Fujimori’s support since the agronomist’s stunning surge in the first round April 8. But it remained unclear whether Vargas Llosa, leading a right-of-center coalition, is consolidating his momentum.

The CPI polling firm, still compiling precise figures from its survey of 2,000 voters Wednesday, said Fujimori retained a lead of 5-6 percentage points, with 14% still undecided. CPI pollster Manuel Saavedra said Vargas Llosa’s Democratic Front had failed to press its campaign in the interior, where Fujimori remains strong thanks to a major grass-roots campaign.

The Apoyo polling company, based on a survey of 4,200 voters in 28 provinces, said Fujimori’s edge had slipped to 41% to Vargas Llosa’s 39%, from a nearly 20-point lead in the days after the first-round ballot. About 10% were undecided and another 10% would cast blank ballots, said Apoyo’s Alfredo Torres.

The Datum firm, however, said Vargas Llosa had moved ahead of Fujimori by a margin of 42.9% to 41.5%, a difference smaller than the margin of error of 2.6 points in the survey of 1,445 voters.

“We have a statistical tie,” said Datum’s Manuel Torrado. “We don’t know who will win.”

The pollsters agreed that Vargas Llosa had taken the lead in Lima, home to a third of the 9.9 million voters, and in the jungle areas, while Fujimori was dominating the north, south and central mountain highland districts.