Flag Decision Sets Off Scramble in Congress : Legislation: Some seek swift passage of a constitutional change. But polls show the issue has lost its steam. A one-third minority can block action.

Spurred by a Supreme Court ruling, key members of Congress Monday demanded swift passage of a constitutional amendment to ban flag burning, while outnumbered opponents scrambled to line up votes to block it.

Proponents of an amendment are helped by several factors. Congress’ top two Republican leaders--Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) and Rep. Robert H. Michel (R-Ill.)--are leading the charge, with President Bush’s enthusiastic backing. They also have strong support from two key Democrats--the chairmen of the Senate and House Judiciary committees: Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-R. I.) and Rep. Jack Brooks (D-Tex.).

Moreover, key votes will take place in the patriotic atmosphere surrounding Flag Day, which falls on Thursday, and the Fourth of July, less than three weeks later. And in the charged politics of an election year, lawmakers will be wary of casting votes on emotional issues that might inspire negative TV ads by their opponents.

“People who vote (against the amendment) will have to go home and explain,” said Dole, the Senate minority leader. “It will make a good 30-second spot.”

Nevertheless, opponents of the flag-burning amendment appear to have several things going for them, too. Opinion polls indicate that the issue has lost steam in recent months and that it is insufficient to decide an election by itself.

Opponents also have a statistical advantage: A constitutional amendment can be blocked by a one-third minority in either house of Congress. And Congress’ top two Democrats--House Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) and Senate Majority Leader George J. Mitchell (D-Me.)--have vowed to fight it vigorously, with the expected help of several prominent Republicans.

“We are now within 10 or 15 votes of stopping it,” said Rep. Don Edwards (D-San Jose), chairman of the House Judiciary subcommittee on civil and constitutional rights. “But it’s awful tough. There’s a mindless stampede out there, and, if it passes, the President will sign it and the states will step all over themselves to ratify it.”

Dole pressed for quick approval of the amendment on Flag Day, but he was rebuffed by Mitchell.

“It would be a grievous error in the haste and heat of controversy to amend the Bill of Rights,” Mitchell said, adding later that there will be “ample opportunity to discuss this issue in the Senate.”

In the House, Brooks announced that his Judiciary Committee will act on a proposed amendment next Tuesday and will bring it to the House floor before July 4.

“The flag is too important a symbol of our nationhood and all that we have struggled for over the past two centuries to leave it unprotected,” he said.

By overwhelming margins, the Senate and the House voted last fall to pass the Flag Protection Act, which was ruled unconstitutional by the high court Monday. Shortly after passing the statute, the Senate voted, 51 to 48, in favor of a constitutional amendment--15 votes short of the required two-thirds majority. There has been no vote in the House on an amendment.

Political operatives were cautious about gauging the impact of the issue on this year’s elections. But strategists in both parties agreed that much of the initial public indignation that followed last year’s court decision on the matter has subsided.

“I don’t think anybody is going to win or lose an election on this,” said political consultant Lyn Nofziger, a one-time aide to former President Ronald Reagan. “The issue has been petering out . . . . It’s not like there is a lot of flag-burning going on to keep it alive.”

“Whether this is an issue that people are going to win or lose elections on, I can’t say,” said Ed Rollins, a chief Republican strategist for House races. “But I do think it’s an issue that defines values. I think it’s an issue that Republicans can push and Democrats will run from.”

Democratic pollster Ed Lazarus said that “it’s not a big motivating issue in terms of how people vote. I don’t anticipate that it will be a huge problem for Democrats,” should they oppose a constitutional ban on flag burning.

Clearly concerned about the issue, Democratic National Chairman Ron Brown tried to set up a rhetorical shield for his party’s candidates in a statement that cited his own record as a veteran of military service.

“To drag the flag through cheap politics is every bit as offensive as burning it,” Brown said.