Drivers Over 65, Women Tend to Be Among State’s Safest, Study Finds

A Times analysis of nearly 179,000 California driver records from 1981 through 1987 shows urban drivers with an accident rate only 13% higher and a violation rate 16% higher than rural drivers.

Women were far safer drivers on the average than men, and older drivers, those above 65 years of age, were safest of all, according to the analysis.

Within Southern California, San Diego County drivers had the best record, an accident rate 27% less than Los Angeles and Orange county drivers combined, and a violation rate 17% less.

In another comparison, the accident rate was about 3% higher in the San Francisco Bay Area than in all Southern California urban areas combined. The violation rate was about 10% higher. Meanwhile, Orange County accident rates were 2% less than Los Angeles County’s, while violation rates were 1% higher.

The records represent a random sample of 1% of the state Department of Motor Vehicles data on all licensed Californians during the seven-year period. The margin of error with a sample of this large size, statisticians say, is one-tenth of 1% or less.

The Times acquired the Department of Motor Vehicles sample and subjected it to statistical analysis with the idea of casting new light on why insurance rates varied by area, sex and age.

But no matter how accurate the comparative rates of accidents and violations may be, insurance company spokesman insist that they do not throw into doubt the companies’ territorial rating system, under which urban drivers are charged much more for auto insurance than rural and suburban drivers, with the highest rates of all in Los Angeles.

Even though Bay Area drivers are shown in the sample to be less safe on the average than Los Angeles drivers, “violation rates have very little to do with the insurance rates,” said Fred Cripe, senior actuary for Allstate. “And accident rates don’t necessarily drive insurance claims rates either.

“In setting our rates, we look at the rate of claims on bodily injury liability, which is 41% higher in Los Angeles County than statewide. Not only are there more claims there, but each claim costs about $10,000, which is 10% to 12% higher than the average claim cost statewide.

“So the average cost for bodily injury claims to the companies is 50% to 60% higher in Los Angeles,” Cripe said. “That is what is driving up the rates there.”

The analysis of the 179,000-driver sample also showed that:

* By all measures, younger California drivers tended to be worse than older drivers, and the drivers with the worst records of all were 18-year-olds. Perhaps because they drive less, the youngest drivers--16-year-olds--typically were no worse in their annual accident and violation rates than 21- and 22-year-olds. Eighteen-year-old men were 2.4 times more likely than the average of all drivers to have an accident, and 18-year-old women were 1.5 times more likely.

If there was a surprise in this, it was that 16-year-old drivers did not have as many accidents as the 18-year-olds, but a State Farm spokeswoman said that if they were rated on a per-mile-of-driving basis, they would. It is just that most teen-agers wait before venturing on long trips away from home or do as much commuter driving.

* Women generally were much better drivers than men their age. For instance, they generally were less than one-fifth as likely to be convicted of a serious driving violation. Sixteen-year-old females had a violation rate 25% of 16-year-old males, but that ratio rapidly diminished with age. Women in the 25-to-34 age group had a rate only 18% as great as of men and women in the 50-to-64 group had a rate only 13% that of men.

This is often reflected in lower insurance rates for women than for men.

* There was no trend toward poorer driving among those 65 and older. Both men and women 65 and older had as low--or women a lower--an accident risk as any other age group, and both had the lowest violation rates. The analysis, however, made no attempt to break down the 65-and-older group, such as examining accident rates of people in their 80s or 90s.

* Drunk driving accident convictions tended to peak at a later age than other violations or accidents. Men 19 to 24 were most prone to such convictions, 2.7 times higher than the state average; for women, the rate was also highest in the 19-to-24 group. Because California’s drinking age is 21, it is not surprising that teen-agers would have a lower drunk driving rate than somewhat older drivers, even though there may be considerable underage drinking.

* Men 19 to 24 were most likely to be convicted of driving without a valid license. This happened to that group at a rate five times the average, while women, regardless of age group, never varied far from the overall average. These statistics might have changed substantially since 1987, however. Due to tightening of the state’s mandatory insurance law, far more licenses have been suspended, and far more people are being caught driving without a valid license in all age groups.

* Eighteen-year-old men were more likely to be convicted of violations using unsafe equipment, driving too slowly, following too close, driving in the wrong lane, failing to yield to pedestrians, failing to yield the right of way to other vehicles and giving the wrong signal. But men 19 to 24 were most often convicted of disobeying police or illegal passing.

The analysis compared drivers in the sample based on overall accident rates, injury and fatality accident rates, overall violation convictions and serious violation convictions. Example of serious convictions are those related to drunk or reckless driving.

Although the worst drivers of both sexes tended to be 18-year-olds, it took women until only age 23 to arrive at the statewide accident average of all drivers. Men didn’t reach the average level until they were in the 35-to-49 group.

While 16-year-old females had an accident rate 88% as high as males, this dropped by age 18 to a rate only 65% to 70% as high.

Eighteen-year-old men and women had the highest fatal accident rates with males 4.6 times more likely to be involved in such an accident than the overall average and females 1.7 times more likely. As with all accidents, females fell to the average at age 23, while males were not that safe until they reached the 50-to-64 group.

There was a secondary peak danger period for men after age 25. While men in the 19-to-24 group were only 1.5 times more likely to have a fatal accident than the overall driving average, men 25 to 34 were 1.8 times as likely to have a fatal accident.

As for ordinary violations, men reached as high as 3.1 times the average rate for all drivers when they were 18 and 19. Women, by contrast, peaked at only 1.2 times the average.

In serious violations, the men peaked at 2.9 times the statewide average in the 19-to-24 group, while women never rose above 0.5, or 50%, of the state average.

For every 1,000 drivers statewide during the seven-year period, there were 1,335 convictions for driving violations. The average driver had 1.35 convictions during the period.

By comparison, for each 1,000 drivers there were 1,376 convictions in urban areas, 1,191 in rural areas, 1,389 in Los Angeles County, 1,406 in Orange County, 1,156 in San Diego County and 1,242 in the Inland Empire.

Statewide, there were 334 accidents per 1,000 drivers during the seven years. The rate per 1,000 was 362 in Los Angeles County, 355 in Orange County, 265 in San Diego County and 346 in the Inland Empire.

NUMBERS BEHIND THE AVERAGES According to the Department of Motor Vehicles, during the period 1981-87, there was an average of 53.2 accidents per 1,000 drivers. But this varied tremendously by age group:

MALES

AGE GROUP ACCIDENT RATE /1,000 16 85.3 17 106.9 18 127.1 19-24 87.9 25-34 66.3 35-49 53.5 50-64 48.1 65+ 43.8

FEMALES

AGE GROUP ACCIDENT RATE /1,000 16 76.7 17 77.0 18 80.2 19-24 58.9 25-34 43.9 35-49 37.6 50-64 29.9 65+ 29.5

The chance in any given year for all drivers of having a fatal accident was only 0.2 per 1,000 during the seven years.

Again, however, this varied sharply by age.

MALES

AGE GROUP ACCIDENT RATE /1,000 16 0.5 17 0.4 18 0.8 19-24 0.3 25-34 0.3 35-49 0.3 50-64 0.1 65+ 0.2

For female drivers, the 179,000-driver sample found there had been no fatal accidents during the seven-year period for females 50 years and above and females of 16. The highest rate was 0.3 per 1,000 at age 18.

The average injury rate per year from auto accidents was 16 per 1,000 drivers. For males, the highest rate was 41.5 at age 18. For 18-year-old females the rate was 25.7.

California Drivers Average Total Accident Risk Eighteen-year-old males are most likely to have accidents. Women have a lesser chance thanmen in every age group. Older persons are the least likely to have accidents. Male Age 16: 1.6 17: 2.0 18: 2.4 19-24: 1.7 25-34: 1.2 35-49: 1.0 50-64: 0.9 65 and up: 0.8 Female Age 16: 1.4 17: 1.4 18: 1.5 19-24: 1.1 25-34: 0.835-49: 0.7 50-64: 0.6 (Average) 65 and up: 0.6 Average Fatal Accident Risk Teen-age men are far above the norm in becoming victims of such accidents. Women have far less chance of dying in vehicular accidents in every age group. Male Age 16: 2.8 17: 2.2 18: 4.6 19-24: 1.5 25-34: 1.8 35-49: 1.5 50-64: 0.8 65 and up: 1.0 Female Age 16: 0.0 17: 0.7 18: 1.7 19-24: 0.7 25-34: 0.5 35-49: 0.4 (Average) 50-64: 0.2 65 and up: 0.1 Average Accident Risk: DUI/Drugs Men peak in the 19-to-24-year age group, and remain at comparatively high risk until they are well into middle age. Male Age 16: 0.6 17: 1.3 18: 1.9 19-24: 2.7 25-34: 2.1 35-49: 1.3 50-64: 1.0 65 and up: 0.3 Female Age 16: 0.1 17: 0.5 18: 0.2 19-24: 0.7 25-34: 0.4 35-49: 0.3 50-64: 0.3 (Average) 65 and up: 0.0 Average Two-Point Violation Risk These are the most serious driving violations, including drunk and reckless driving. Drivers who collect four points in a single year, six points in two years or eight points in three years have their licenses suspended. Most violations are one point. Men are far more prone than women to be convicted of two-point violations. Male Age 16: 0.4 17: 1.1 18: 2.3 19-24: 2.9 25-34: 2.2 35-49: 1.4 50-64: 0.8 65 and up: 0.2 Female Age 16: 0.1 17: 0.2 18: 0.3 19-24: 0.5 25-34: 0.4 35-49: 0.3 50-64: 0.1 (Average) 65 and up: 0.0 Note: For comparisons, accident and violation rates were indexed against the statewide average, which is represented as 1.0. A rate of 2.4, for instance, is 2.4 times greater than the average.Measures under 1.0 are below the average. Thus, a rate of 0.5 would be half the average rate and a rate of 0.1 would be only one-tenth the statewide average. Statistical programming by Maureen Lyons, Times statistical analyst Source: Dept. of Motor Vehicles