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NEWS ANALYSIS : U.S. Feels Firm Soviet Stands Can Be Ignored

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

On subjects ranging from arms control to German reunification, the Bush Administration has concluded that it can safely ignore the Soviet Union’s hard-line positions, confident that Moscow will eventually retreat.

A ranking State Department official offered this assessment Saturday in explaining why the American delegation is unconcerned about tough new Soviet conditions for German unity which, on the surface, appeared to be deal-wreckers.

Talking to reporters traveling with Secretary of State James A. Baker III on the trip home from unification talks in East Berlin, the official dismissed the latest proposal by Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze as a “wish list of issues that they would like to see resolved.”

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But he said Shevardnadze realizes that the other participants in the so-called two-plus-four negotiations will not go along with the Soviet approach. The talks involve the two German states and the four major World War II victorious powers, the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union.

And he said that Moscow is unlikely to hold out for long against the consensus of the other five participants.

The official compared the latest Soviet ploy to Moscow’s attempt to harden its stance on arms control in April by imposing new conditions on issues that had already been decided.

The stiffened Soviet position on arms control produced anxiety in the Administration at the time. But Moscow retreated in time for President Bush and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev to sign a declaration at their May summit in Washington that reflected the understandings that had existed before Moscow’s April demands.

The official indicated that the Administration has concluded that Gorbachev and his associates often adopt hard-line positions primarily to appeal to conservatives in the Kremlin hierarchy.

Although there is no doubt that Moscow would gladly accept a deal incorporating these demands, the Administration believes that the Soviets will ultimately back away if the West holds firm.

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Concerning Shevardnadze’s demand for limitations on the military and political powers of a united Germany, the official said Shevardnadze has very little leverage and very little room for maneuvering.

Although Moscow can refuse to relinquish its postwar rights and responsibilities--thus delaying Germany’s return to full sovereignty--there is very little that the Soviet Union can do to slow the pace of economic and political union between West Germany and East Germany.

“The only leverage the Soviets have is to delay sovereignty . . . and I think they realize that would not be a particularly profitable course for them to follow,” the official said.

“Notwithstanding the document we saw, they really want to see this thing accomplished” before the end of this year, he said.

Nevertheless, the official said, Shevardnadze’s latest proposal may make it somewhat more difficult for Moscow to accept German unity on the conditions demanded by the Western powers and West Germany.

“While there might have been a large domestic content in the preparation of this paper, the tabling of it makes it harder to walk back from it when that becomes necessary to avoid becoming totally isolated on this issue,” he said.

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Shevardnadze outlined a detailed proposal to put a ceiling on the manpower of the German army, to keep a united Germany out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for at least five years and possibly much longer, and to impose other restrictions on German sovereignty.

Despite the official’s optimism that German reunification will be achieved soon and on conditions favorable to the West, the matter may hinge on actions taken at a NATO summit meeting starting July 5 in London.

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