NEWS ANALYSIS : Bid to Iran May Hurt Morale, Stability in Iraq

Iraq’s surprise offer to surrender the spoils of its bloody eight-year war with Iran in exchange for a formal peace treaty could have major ramifications for the current Persian Gulf crisis and an unsettling impact on Saddam Hussein’s major power base, the Iraqi army.

The stunning concessions contained in the Iraqi president’s offer to Tehran--ending all claims on Iranian territory and on a strategically important waterway at the head of the gulf--came just as King Hussein of Jordan was beginning a delicate attempt to act as an intermediary between the United States and Iraq over the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The king is scheduled to meet with President Bush in Kennebunkport, Me., today and to offer him proposals for a possible negotiated settlement.

Bush has repeatedly declared that the current crisis can end only when Iraq withdraws all its forces from the tiny but oil-rich sheikdom, while Saddam Hussein has insisted that it is now a permanent part of Iraq.

U.S. officials speculated Wednesday that the timing of the Iraqi leader’s offer to Iran may be intended in part as a signal to the Bush Administration that Baghdad is prepared to be more flexible on Kuwait.

“I don’t think this development is a coincidence,” a senior U.S. analyst acknowledged.

“Maybe Saddam Hussein’s getting desperate,” added an Administration official. “The timing particularly makes it an intriguing move.”

Besides portraying himself as flexible, the Iraqi strongman also may be trying to deal Iran out of the current game. By offering such generous terms to a foe he defeated on the battlefield, he may be trying to preempt two possibilities: Iran’s agreement to join the international embargo against Iraq and an Iranian military buildup along the two nations’ joint 730-mile border.

“Saddam has always had a conspiracy theory about Iran and the United States getting back together, and he’s trying to prevent a rapprochement that would be a disaster for him,” said Eric Hooglund, a U.S. expert on Iran.

“It’s very clear that Iraq is appealing for friendship and Islamic brotherhood to confront foreign intruders in the region,” said Shaul Bakhash, an Iran specialist at George Mason University. “It’s based on the premise that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

The gamble, however, carries enormous risks for Iraq’s internal political stability--and President Hussein’s support.

After two years of building monuments to war heroes and a giant “Victory Stadium” in the capital to mark the final 1988 offensive that forced Tehran to agree to a U.N. cease-fire, Hussein now has offered to return to the prewar status, which amounts to almost total acquiescence to Iranian demands. His de facto peace has begun to smell like defeat.

“Iraq has now lost the war,” said Hooglund. “This means that Iraq comes out of the war with absolutely nothing except a couple hundred thousand casualties and up to $100 billion in debts. Saddam Hussein now looks like he bankrupted his country for nothing.”

The major question among Administration officials Wednesday was what impact Hussein’s concessions would have on the morale of the Iraqi military. Ordinary soldiers and officers may now wonder what they are doing in Kuwait if nothing was gained from eight years of war with Iran, the Middle East’s longest and bloodiest conflict in modern times, U.S. analysts predicted.

“This is humiliating for Saddam. He argued that going to war, with all the sacrifices required, was to get back territory that was rightfully Iraq’s,” Hooglund said. “Now he’s offering to give it back.

“Morale within the military was not high to begin with. Keeping soldiers on the border over the past two years and now sending them to Kuwait has prevented men from normalizing their lives and going home to their families. This (peace proposal) has to have a trickle-down effect.”

Although President Bush said Saturday that he would not give support to internal groups seeking to oust the Iraqi leader, several U.S. officials make little secret of their hope that the result of Operation Desert Shield will include the end of Hussein’s regime.

American specialists believe that the only forces strong enough to challenge Hussein’s iron-fisted rule are the military and the Revolutionary Command Council. Until today, both appeared to be supporting the Kuwaiti invasion on nationalist grounds.

“We’ll just have to wait and see what the fallout is,” said the senior U.S. analyst. “From the beginning, Iraq has been unpredictable. Things are now moving so fast that it’s even harder to project.”

U.S. analysts also question whether Baghdad’s olive branch, which plays to Iran’s anti-West foreign policy, will sway Tehran.

“Iran is going to face a dilemma. It’s an attractive offer,” said Hooglund. “At the same time, the alternative is that Saddam emerges as a major power. I don’t see Iran trusting Iraq even if they have a full agreement and all steps are implemented overnight.” “Iran does not want to see a strong Iraq with Kuwait under its wing to emerge out of this,” Bakhash commented.

The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s spiritual leader, on Wednesday criticized the deployment of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia as “an insult to the Muslim people” of that country. “Those governments which invited the U.S. forces to their countries are devoid of grass-roots support and do not command the backing of their peoples,” he said.

U.S. forces “will have to pay a price for the bullying,” he added.

But some U.S. analysts dismissed the statement and predicted that Iran would agree to talk peace with Iraq but still honor the U.N. sanctions resolution.

“The political rhetoric in Iran still shows the strain of militancy that has been a constant aspect of revolutionary Iran,” said R. K. Ramazani of the University of Virginia. “But it’s clear that Iran sees Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait as a blatant violation of international law and as unjustifiable.

“This view will not be changed by an Iraqi olive branch. Those who believe (that) Saddam will fool the Iranians are naive. They will see through him. Saddam is an Iraqi child of Machiavelli.”